In which phase of the chart do you think the price of Bitcoin is?steemCreated with Sketch.

in #bitcoin2 years ago (edited)

Hello my fellow Steemians and crypto enthusiasts!

I have the following questions to you (please, write in the comments): In which phase of the chart do you think the price of Bitcoin or the market cap of the crypto market is/are?

stages_bubble.png

  • This is a chart, showing the stages of a Financial (or a price) Bubble. Many financial analysts use this charts. Also you can find it in the books about investments, financial valuations models, market cycles, etc.

I think that we are in the phase, called «Capitulation». Bitcoin entered this phase in the second half of November:
06.12.2018 Bitcoin.png

I just want to let you know that Bitcoin, in my view, is not a Bubble! Bitcoin has a bright future! Nothing bad has happened to it since the beginning of 2017. Even the ecosystem of BTC has been slowly slowly improving. The Lightning Network was launched in the beginning of 2018. The capacity of LN has been slowly increasing. But, the price of Bitcoin formed a Bubble in the second half of 2017. Simply, the price of Bitcoin diverged from it fundamental value in the second half of 2017 and now it is slowly returning to its normal fundamental value. So, it is a bubble of the PRICE, not a bubble of Bitcoin itself.

I am a big crypto optimist! I believe in the bright future of crypto market. But the bear market (of the prices) is here to stay for quite some time. I have participated in many bubles on the financial markets for the last 12,5 years. So, I have my own strategy how to act on the crypto market.


Important!

Keep in mind, that thoughts expressed here are my own, and they should not be regarded as recommendations for any cryptocurrency trades, investments and etc.


A few words about me:

Just to let you know: I've been working professionally as a currency analyst for the last 12 and a half years, and as a cryptocurrency analyst for the last almost 2 years.


You can also have a look at my recent posts about trends:

... and my recent Bitcoin price video analysis:

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At this point it does not matter where we are in the chart. The aim is too focus on the technology and what will benenit to our society.

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@chesatochi, I agree with you. As I said above, in my mind, Bitcoin is not a Bubble, but the price has been a bubble. Simply, Bitcoin has been overpriced since the middle of last year.
Of course, nothing bad has happened to the technology. The technology, in my view, is even improving. So, in a long run, I am a big optimist, so, that's why I want to buy some bitcoins.


It is there where I can say 100%.... " Just buy ...and buy ... "
year back lot was say if this all can go back town ... they want buy more up if they can. Now you have this low price ... so go and use it.


@foxkoit, a year back, In the second half of December I predicted a price drop of BTC below $10000 (to $7800 and $5000). Of course I wrote that if scalability issue of Bitcoin remaind unsolve. Until now it is unsolved. So, I wondered a lot last year when in the second half of 2017 price of BTC started rising from $1800 to $3500 and later to $5000...$7000....$10000 and so on. There was no any fundamental reason for price rise in the second half of 2017. So, I was not of this people you talk about. Last, year in September I started writing about a new price bubble forming. Showing exactly the same chart, but explaining that we were in the "Enthusiasm", "Greed" stage... Most of the people who bought in the second half of last year Bitcoin (and other cryptos) even didn't know what the scalability problem of Bitcoin was/is. So... that is. Most of the people buying crypto in the second half of last year, didn't know what they were buying. Now, prices return to normal levels (fundamentally backed). This it the gray dotted line in the chart above. I will try to get into the crypto (heavily) in the "Despair" phase. Although, as I said earlier, it is quite a tricky question how to figure it out, when is the bottom. Althouhg I have seen many price bubles for the last 12,5 working on the financial markets.

Hey ... I was not think you was say it... there was lot other users where on the post I was see it :) this why I say it.

And in this small years on this coin market what I have be here, I see this market is something new then this old stock markets that are isolated so that ordinary people can not be in there.

I think we are in Capitulation. My question is how it will look like if we go down to Despair?!?

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@yanipetkov, thank you for commenting. Yeah, it seems that most of the people say that we are already in the «Capitulation» stage.

What do you mean exactly about the stage of «Despair»? How it will look like on the PRICE Chart? Or, how the situtation on the crypto market will look like?

Price and the overall crypto situation. Though I guess in this phase the price of BTC will be anchored to the levels of 1000-1500$

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@yanipetkov, usually in the stage of «Despair» the price of the asset just go sideways for a very long time. Have a look at this chart and read the post to see what I wrote about Bitcoin last year on 17th of August. When Bitcoin was in the phase of «Enthusiasm».

Ok, now about the market. Hmm. I think that many of the tokens will go to almost 0. Most of the great ideas (tokens) will disappear. Their ecoysystem will be completely destroyed and they will never recover. So, very soon we will see that each and every month the number of Tokens (some call them cryptocurrencies) in the medai we will read news that some token price dropped to almost 0. Later, the media will write it was Scam. No, it is not a Scam. It is just bear market and some ideas will not be able to implement.
Just to let you know. In 2006 and 2007 I bought many shares of companies in TecDAX, that were trying to produce solar energy, solar panels, wind energy, etc. It was a hype at that time to invest in environmental friendly energy companies, etc. Prices were really good. 3 euro, 5 euro, 10 euro per shares. We believed that ther prices would skyrocket. But when the financial buble bursted in 2008, their prices dropped to 0,20 cents, 0,15 cents... And we even in 2009 and 2010 started investing heavily into those cheap stocks. I bought shares of one company producing solar panels in Germany at price of 0,10 cents. Because, in 2006 its price was 3-4 euro. Price of this stock drop in 2012 to 0,001 cent. Later the company went bankrupt. So, I have many such kind of examples. I still have some kind of shares of that time...of companies which shares are trading close to 0, or even disappeared.
The same will happen to the crypto. Many many tokens will go 0. Their great ideas will be burried. Investors will cry and claim that it was Scam. No, it was not. It was a harsh bear market, that didn't let the ideas grow.
I cross my fingers that STEEM survives.

Thank you @cryptospa for this detailed answer.
Now I got broadened knowledges, about Up/Downtrends. Good comparison to Rhodium and the Shares of Centralized companies, that got busted back in the Fin.crises in 2008.
Lets hope we can get away easier here, lets cross fingers STEEM will make it ASAP!

No doubt we are at the capitulation phase.
The question is how far it will last...
Do you have any tentative date?

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@toofasteddie, thank you for commenting. Yeah, also think that we are in the «Capitulation» stage. I don't think exactly how long it will last... I have no idea. I've been participating in many bubbles (sometime having short positions/sometimes having long positions). But, I think that we will be able to notice the bottom. I have participated in most than 10-15 big price bubbles on the financial markets (including gold and silver in 2011 and 2012) in the last 12 years. So, I hope I will notice the bottom. I beleive in the bright future of Bitcoin. So, I am very interested in buying some bitcoins. I think the crypto market cap will be trillions of USD one day. But Bitcoin has to solve the scalability issue in order the price to starg growing solidly again. I don't know when the tech geeks/bitcoin community developers will be able to solve the problem. I will keep on eye on them. But, I think that I will start buying BTC (at prices near $1000-1300) even if the scalability issue remains unsolved. But I will hedge my investment with some LTC, BCH, BSV and probably some IOTA, DASH. Also I think to get into XRP, XLM if Bitcoin community in the next 1-2 years cannot solve the scalability issue.

Btw, during the capitulation stage there will be many price rebounds... I don't know if I will try to participate in these rebounds, because, all of a sudden a mircle can happen (i will be very glad), the developers may find out unexpectedly solution to the scalability issue, and the BTC may start rising.

@javirid, thank you for commenting. Yeah, I also think that the PRICE of bitcoin has entered the «Capitulation» stage.

If I compare the scheme of the bubble with the bitcoin chart, it looks like capitulation.

@behelen, I think so, as well.

Btw, you can see one of my post from last year (August 9th, 2017) when price of bitcoin jumped from $2500 to $3500. At that moment many people said that this is the end and the price will drop to $1000. I explained to them that it is very hard to predict where the top of this "Mania" stage will be. And, at that moment, I tried to warn many traders not to play again the bitcoin prise rice. You can read my post. I wrote such kind of post last year very often.

p.s. in the post you can even see with wich bubbles I started comparing the bitcoin Price buble. With

I saw similar situations on ruthenium (in 2007), on oil (in 2008), on silver (in 2011), on gold( in 2011), on the Russian ruble and Indian rupee (in 2014), etc.

One more of my post of last year (August 17, 2017) when price of bitcoin reached $4500. In my post last year, I gave them example of the Rhodium (one of my favorite ones). I just wanted to warn them not to open short positions on Bitcoin...
As I said I have seen many price bubbles, and I have participated in many of them.

It's cool when you notice the same trend on different examples!
I think, and to life can be to apply this bubble! For example, the bubble of popularity actor, etc.

@behelen, he-he-he.. Ok, it has never come to my mind...but, yeah, it is a good example.