Steem Basic Income Giveaway (Anyone out there?...)
Thanks to those who joined my Emoji, it was a nice lighthearted theme for the week!
This week, I was listening to a podcast... and it was a debate about the merits of the SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) and the dangers or benefits of passively receiving alien signals against actively sending out messages to be noticed.
METI (Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence) is a side-shoot of the SETI project... led by a faction of scientists who believe that it isn't just enough to be passively listening for signals from outer space to see if there is evidence of alien life... but instead to actively send laser or radio pulses and messages to nearby stars to try and catch the attention of potential extraterrestrial lifeforms.
Of course, this leads us to the question of whether or not this is a good idea or not! After all, the contact between advanced and primitive civilisations on Earth has generally resulted in pretty dire consequences for the less advanced civilisations. However, the is another argument that if a life has achieved space travel... then there is a degree of enlightenment that might lend a race to be more benevolent.
My Question
Do you think there is life outside of Earth?
Do you think it is a good idea to be actively trying to contact aliens?
My sample answer
Short answer to the first question... YES! I figure the universe is vast enough in both time and space to have enough rolls of the dice to enable life to form independently in different places. However, the existence of extraterrestrial life doesn't necessarily mean sentient and intelligent life... single cells or simple things are more likely. That said, the limits (currently theoretically known limits) on the speed of travel through the universe means that it is quite possible that we might have missed intelligent life by millions of years (blinks on the universal time scale)... or that we are just too far away....
... as for the second question... I lean towards the idea that it is a GOOD idea to be actively seeking to contact alien intelligence. Sure, the potential for disaster is pretty huge... but on the other hand, if there were intelligent life (that had already achieved space travel) that were trying to seek our eradication then it would have been trivial for them to find us already. They wouldn't need the equivalent of a blinking torch to do it...
However, the potential benefits of coming into contact with a much more advanced society (well, technologically more advanced.. the two don't always have to go hand in hand... ) would be a great eye opener for our own understanding of philosophy and sciences. To my mind, this would completely outweigh any downside... including extinction!
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Steem Basic Income
One of the first communities that I came in contact with at the beginning of my time at Steemit was @steembasicincome. As a author starting out on your fresh new Steemit account, Steemit can be a daunting and lonely place to be. OFten, it can feel like you are posting into an abyss with no one listening and with no ability to grow out of the situation. A share of Steem Basic Income gives you a guaranteed vote on one post a day, thus giving you a small but over time cumulative support to your account to help grow you out of your initial wilderness!
With this post, I want to help sponsor people who might not even have the spare 1 STEEM that is required for registration. So, when this post pays out, I will sponsor people depending on the payout of this post. Basically, I will round up the SBD payout from this post and then that will be the number of people I will sponsor. (So, if the payout is 2.3 SBD, I will sponsor 3 people). OF course, this is not simply an altruistic move, as the sponsor of a Steem Basic Income share also gets a share, so it is a great way to help others whilst helping yourself!
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I'm 99.99999% sure there is life outside earth, it only makes sense, the universe is almost infinite our minds can't even fathom the size of the universe, the probability of aliens not existing is very little if you ask me. The problem is that to contact them we have to wait for the transmissions to get to their planet and then back, that can take thousands of years, so the current systems to contact them aren't that good. And to travel to other planets it's even worse since galaxies are moving away from each other which means it will only take more and more time to travel to other galaxies.
If you ask me we need to focus on developing better tech while still trying to contact them. And yes, I think it's a good idea to contact them, any civilization evolved enough to do space travel ir probably a civilization of very civilized and peaceful beings that would help us on our struggles while still keeping us from destroying ourselves, which is the problem, if we had their advanced tech we would probably blow ourselves up pretty quickly.
That really does seem pretty sure! The communication lag time is a pretty serious problem... hopefully the light speed limit is able to be worked around, otherwise it is going to be a seriously lonely existence!
The idea of technology outstripping the wisdom to use it is an interesting idea, it has been suggested that part of the reason that we don't detect intelligent life is that the probability of aliens destroying themselves is pretty common!
The winners and the next SBI question (Cringe...) can be found here:
https://steemit.com/contest/@bengy/steembasicincomegiveawaycringe-aii9cuf7x7
My Question
Do you think there is life outside of Earth?
No.
Do you think it is a good idea to be actively trying to contact aliens?
No, because see above.
Most people think that all that is required of life is water and being a certain distance from a star. I'd recommend a book called Improbable Planet by astronomer Hugh Ross. When media talks about "habitable zone" they talk about liquid water being able to exist. But in order to support life, there are actually 9 different habitable zones (electromagnetic, UV, etc...) and all of these must overlap, which is completely improbable.
Every year, the probability of finding life on another planet--not just nearby but in the entire universe--drops with every new scientific discovery. When the Drake Equation was first published, it was assumed that one of every ten planets could support life. Now it's almost a certainty that there is no other planet remotely similar to Earth.
The winners and the next SBI question (Cringe...) can be found here:
https://steemit.com/contest/@bengy/steembasicincomegiveawaycringe-aii9cuf7x7
That's definitely a well thought through answer.. however, there are many more planets than we thought, so there are many more rolls of the dice that had originally expected. The Improbable Planet does bring some interesting questions of chance to mind, however, I'm not sure that I would make the leap that the author does and suggest that there is a divine hand that was involved. From a statistical point of view, the more rolls you have... the more likely the improbable is, which is what we see every day in the "commonness" of otherwise improbable events (like winning the lottery twice). It is likely that someone somewhere will manage it at some time... despite the fact that is a really low probability event.
Actually I'd say there are less planets than we originally expected. Something like 90% of all exo-planets that we've discovered are all gas giants. Also, at some point, something becomes so improbable that it will never happen in the life span of a 26 billion-year universe. Winning a lottery three or four times is nothing in terms of improbability. A physicist can determine that mathematically it is POSSIBLE for you to take a red-hot poker and immerse it in water and the temperature of the iron will increase. Because heat is transferred by random collisions of particles and in some incredibly rare cases an oblique collision of molecules can cause heat energy to transfer from the cooler to the hotter material. The odds are roughly 1 in 10(80) --- pretend that's superscript. That doesn't sound like a huge number in terms of scientific notation, but it's considered improbable enough that it will not happen in the history of our universe. In fact 1 in 10 (50) is something along the lines of "if every particle in existence makes one attempt every second from the beginning of history until the end of history the odds are roughly 50-50 it will happen once."
The exo-planets were expected to be far fewer in total (rocky and gas giants), and the bias towards gas giants is quite possibly an artifact of our detection techniques which are not really fine enough to detect the smaller planets accurately, however, time will tell as we get better at that....
Agreed, the lottery example was a simplistic one... however, I do disagree with some assumptions that you make for your examples as well.
Yes, I agree that the temperature on a macroscopic scale is practically zero for increasing in the cooler to hotter direction... however, in this particular case, we aren't talking about that sort of thing. We are talking more along the lines of (given the right planet...) if some random chance of a few amino acids or otherwise forming in a soup of chemicals... and not if life would spring from the soup to a bacteria level. So, more along the lines of will a few of the molecules in your example increase in energy due to an odd collision... rather than a large scale temperature change?
Agreed that 1 in 10^50 is pretty improbable in the lifetime of the universe... IF you only attempt once every second. I would argue that you are rolling the dice orders of magnitudes greater than that, once per second is pretty damn slow! The other problem (in both your favour and mine... as it is unknown), is that we just don't know enough about the probabilities involved... orders of magnitude either way would make a huge difference!
Well the 1 in 10^50 was not one guy rolling a die every second. That's one attempt per second per particle estimated to exist in the universe. 1 in 10^50 isn't even an estimate of the probability of a planet existing that is capable of supporting life. It's just a benchmark where even Mr. Spock would say "it's impossible." The probability of a planet existing that is capable of supporting life is 1 in 10^282. Source: https://reasons.org/explore/blogs/todays-new-reason-to-believe/read/tnrtb/2004/04/01/probability-for-life-on-earth
Every year, the probability goes down. As scientists discover new things that we never previously thought of. One small example, zinc is required for any sort of advanced life. But if you took the total amount of zinc on Earth and distributed evenly across the entire planet, Earth would be incapable of sustaining life.
We've gone from 1 in 10 planets supporting life (Drake, with no evidence) to 1 in 10^282. And every year I'm guessing that it will continue to go up. Even with billions and billions of stars with assuming billions of planets, we're looking at something so impossible that Earth should not have been able to have been created according to the laws of physics.
Thanks for the reply, I do find the source article that you quoted to be a little short on how the probabilities were arrived at.... and many of the probabilities seem to be linked. I'm not sure that just a simple multiplying of them all together (suggesting independence, and even with the fudge factor at the end) is a wise way of evaluating so many variables... I have the same problems with Drake as well, in that most of the variables are pretty much unknown quantities... but at least with Drake that is restricted to a few terms rather than a gigantic list of unknowns!
I'm not sure that the logic at the end is one that I would make... as it isn't quite completely supported (even by the probability argument that the writer makes). The seeming unlikeliness of the probability of life (as given by the author, not that I accept it yet...) and the obvious evidence of life (here on Earth) would suggest to me that we don't understand some of the terms and mechanism to explain the disparity... I wouldn't make the conclusion that there is a creator (I wouldn't definitely rule it out, but I wouldn't definitely accept it... small difference!).
With your zinc example, this is a clear case for mechanisms to slowly gather the materials required over time (or a divine creator if that is your preferred explaination!) Definitely, if zinc was to be spread evenly that would be weird... but like most things, on a smaller scale, it tends to clump. And in that clumpiness we see the potential for more clumping.... (lol, technical terms...)... in the same way that stars form, despite the large scale uniformity of the distribution of matter/energy... and in these clumpy stellar regions there are things that defy the "normal" state of affairs that are suggested by the most abstract levels of physics.
Again, the lack of detection of "Earth-like" exo-planets is an artifact of our limitations on detection. Large, massive objects are easier to detect due to the effect that they have on the light spectra on the host star. Small objects like the Earth are beyond our current ability to reliably detect... but getting closer!
Anyway, an interesting conversation and insight... I will have an extra SBI share for you!
The Drake equation is a probabilistic argument used to estimate the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy
I'd guess you could say that the Fermi paradox, referring to the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for and various high probability estimates of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations elsewhere in the Milky Way galaxyis kind of like a tag-a-long, obnoxious, contrarian, little brother to the Drake equation...of course, depending on your own personal views, that relationship could be reversed!
So, considering that the number of stars (the base of the Drake equation) is close to infinite, you could say that the chance of life existing elsewhere is infinite, or closing in on 100%.
However, that doesn't mean anything if we are talking about the possibility of life forms that have a chance of interacting with humanity in the near term (say, our own lifetimes). Those considerations cut the odds tremendously with known variables.
Then again, our idea of known variables could be absolutely wrong ;>
Absolutely not.
We have no idea of the power level, modes of intelligence, morality, or taste for juicy human flesh, that possible tourists/conquerors/genocidal experts could bring to bear against us.
I think we should avoid making any assumptions on what aliens can or will do. The fact that they could get here at all indicates power greater than our own.
OTOH, there is a funny scifi story by Harry Turtledove, The Road Not Taken, which opens up possibilities of a different sort.
Outstanding topic, Bengy! Re-steemed happily
The winners and the next SBI question (Cringe...) can be found here:
https://steemit.com/contest/@bengy/steembasicincomegiveawaycringe-aii9cuf7x7
No cringe necessary...you have to advertise and promote your contests for folks to find them. I have resteemed this one!
And thank you for the SBI. A unit here, and a unit there, and I shall soon (or not so soon LOL) become a steemillonaire.
I'll dig up that story and comment it here, i think.
Thanks! Actually, the cringe was the topic for the next one!
Agreed, both Drake and Fermi have some pretty hefty inbuilt assumptions about the settings of the variables that they use... however, there still is the idea that there is a close to infinite amount of stars, which does mean that a small chance short approach certainty over time. However, that doesn't take into account other problems of communication... perhaps, light speed really is the limit...
LOL... I think you slightly changed the wording of my second question! I figure that they can't be any harm in trying to contact aliens... after all, we have been passively sending out signals anyway... so it isn't really as if we were hiding anyway!
That scifi story... I had a quick look at the wiki page... it's hilarious! Ah, I remember loving all these short stories from the Golden Age! I really should rediscover more of them again...
Extra SBI share for you, thanks for the thoughtful reply!
thanks!
I've got a copy of the story in digital somewhere, let me know if yuo want and I'll dig it out
I must have read the question the way I wanted to answer it lol.
sending out passive signals is different than active communication. that could the trigger for any of the negative consequences. And I admit the beenies of contact could be tremendous, but the risk factor is just too great for me to want and roll the dice ;>
it was a great contest!
That would be cool if you can find it!
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I believe they are already here, among us, watching, studying, exploiting, preparing.
One of them is Mark Zuckerberg!
Haha... I would think they would take a less public and obvious persona for observation!
The winners and the next SBI question (Cringe...) can be found here:
https://steemit.com/contest/@bengy/steembasicincomegiveawaycringe-aii9cuf7x7
Personally I don't think aliens exist and it's a waste of time, energy and resources to look for them when we need to do so much in are own planet! But it makes some good films lol!
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Well, that's a pretty sure answer! However, I am of the opinion that if you don't look you won't know... plus, the amount of funding for it is woefully small anyway! Most scientific and space ventures are pitifully small in budget!
The winners and the next SBI question (Cringe...) can be found here:
https://steemit.com/contest/@bengy/steembasicincomegiveawaycringe-aii9cuf7x7
Yes, certainly, although not necessarily intelligent. It doesn't take that much to shape up some microbes afterall.
Now to the more obvious side of the question... Entirely unsure. I believe in simulism, so it would be up to the creator's whim and it could change at any given time.
Hell yes. I'm all for human erradication. Whatever happens will certainly be benevolent. Either enlightening us or destroying us completely are great consequences.
Well... it does take a little bit of time, and some good luck! Simulism... it's an enticing idea, but at the moment... I do think it is a bit of a philosophical cop out, it's a bit tricky to prove/disprove without a jarring disjunct. OF course, it would be pretty interesting if it were true!
You can't currently prove or disprove it. But it makes a lot more sense than anything else. There are two things in favor of it:
The double slit experiment
source
Pure logic
source
Yes... I've seen most of those arguments... I think that they all still assume a bit and there isn't a clear logical step. The physics one is less convincing to me (it is also an old and known result), from the point of view of someone who studied Theoretical Physics, it looks to be a misunderstanding of the paper.
However... all of that aside, there isn't anything to doesn't say that it could be... just no conclusive hints that it is!
The winners and the next SBI question (Cringe...) can be found here:
https://steemit.com/contest/@bengy/steembasicincomegiveawaycringe-aii9cuf7x7
Great initiative, upvoted.
Congrats to the winners!!
Yes from both a theological and scientific point of view I say yes. Full disclosure I am a theological evolutionist which means I believe God can tweak his creations. Therefore, he created more things than we could ever imagine.
Second it will happen eventually whether we seek ot or not. Maybe we shoukd focus on improving and being better and let it happen naturally. Thanks!!
Hmmm... I had no idea that there was a school of thought that understood that God could continually tweak, I had always thought that it was a set and forget sort of thing! So, does this mean that evolution is divine intervention?
It just may.
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The winners and the next SBI question (Cringe...) can be found here:
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That would be incredibly cool if it was completely out of our normal realm of experience!
The winners and the next SBI question (Cringe...) can be found here:
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