Steem HF21 Review - Reject 2e12
View this post on Hive: Steem HF21 Review - Reject 2e12
5 years ago in #hf21 by abitcoinskeptic (73)
$79.29
- Past Payouts $79.29, 0.00 TRX
- - Author $59.98, 0.00 TRX
- - Curators $19.31, 0.00 TRX
It is a hot topic at the moment, and we will see if this hard fork will happen or not!
The people in control of Steem seem to think it is for our own good. Top witnesses who step out of line will find themselves no longer on the top.
I think it will pass with a near consensus.
Fingers crossed this volatile mix won't cause an explosion.
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We call that influence and power in action. ;)
Good analysis. What happens to curators who vote for lower valued post less than 16 Steem. Will they earn less too since the post earned less? Then curators will avoid small valued posts at any cost. It will disaster for minnows or less known authors. Very few curators will search gems and vote for it.
However, minnows can sell their Steem for PAL and move to @palnet which has much fairer system. Though I am an orca (with combined SP from multiple accounts), I don't/can't curate regularly. I love to delegate projects such as @palnet, @steemhunt, @actifit, @dlike or others who need SP delegation. I believe Steem should be backbone currency rather than concern about contents. SMTs/DApps will figure it out.
Moreover, EIP will affect posters in other DApp such as @steemhunt. However, they are also rewarding their own tokens.
I agree it is a bad experiment on wrong time. Steem is already in bear mood compared to other cryptos. STINC is creating FUD among many users as reflected by the price. Their focus should have been SMT not EIP. Who runs STINC who have very little knowledge about how market works.
I personally think Steem should be removed for reward pool and should become backbone token. Let's SMT/SCOT play with all sort of reward distribution algo experimentations. @palnet is already becoming a success story.
Steem's supply (8.2% inflation), HF21 and lack of marketing is trumping its demand. If it had a 2-3% inflation, it would easily sit in top 30 in CMC rank..
At end of the day people will move to other DApp where their needs will be fulfilled. @palnet could be a good alternative for minnows.
Upvoted with 2 PAL, great writing :)
Yes, PALnet (and SMT in the future) could be good alternatives if regular STEEM is no longer desirable.
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These are some great posts you linked.
If you curate when the post is worth less than 16 Steem your vote gets hit with the 2e12 penalty similar to voting before 15 minutes, you aren't getting the full potential. However, once it is at 16 Steem curation % is shared with more people and it is similar to now where the people who 'discover' the content get a higher curation payout ratio. Curation is getting way too complext to explain. I can't see how people will jump on Steem and say hey this sounds like fun, I'd love to figure it out.
Moving to paynet is a great idea. I really hope delegation is not destroyed before Steem is a lot more evenly distributed than what we have right now.
It would be great if SMTs were up and running first. I do like steem-engine, but we are giving the makers of that a heck of a lot of power.
I agree the inflation with Steem is too high, but I feel suddenly dropping it would be a disaster. The post payouts would be that much lower if there was 2 or 3 % inflation and most people would be only making money if the price of Steem goes up. It would be a huge benefit to current stakeholders and investors, but until SMTs are up and running well it may turn off new members.
I agree that when SMTs get foothold, then we should seriously think about reducing inflation. Price of an asset is always depend on supply and demand. BTC and LTC are having great time on upcoming halving that will reduce the reward to half. On the other hand, at low demand, Steem are sold as usual or more. Mostly insiders (i.e. old Steemians) are buying. HF21 will make it difficult for newcomers. Moreover, STINC is not creating any demand by taking popular decisions (e.g. burn few millions, airdrop on coinbase earn project, or delegating to popular dapps such as @actifit, @steemhunt, @dlike to inspire their users) or spending millions on marketing to attract new users, investors, or developers.
I do agree in one sense, but in another sense, who is going to buy 500 Steem to make themselves an instant minnow if Steem is 10 dollars a piece and inflation is 2%. It seems more profitable now at 20% inflation and 40 cents because if it moons, that would be nice. I guess the powers to be have a target of active users in mind before changing it.
Maybe that's also why they are delaying SMTs. It's pretty amazing that some witnesses just managed to make a very similar thing on their own without millions of dollars of Steem (I think).
Upvoted I really appreciate your analysis here of HF21, it looks like a concern for my minnow status and preference for posting. Is this really a game changer for the worse for us minnows?
You need to figure out how to maximize potential curation rewards as a minnow. Or you can produce mainstream consumer content. Or you can join a cliche and dance for the masters. I would advise against giving up until we see what happens. It won't take long to figure it out. There are gonna be some ways for minnows to do well.
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I am trying to soak in all the numbers and opinions of the fork in order to adjust my strategies for my steem business. I am not liking much of what I read but I make shit these day for content efforts anyhow.
What I really want to know is how to produce so that I get those massive @tipu @smartsteem and @ocdb upvotes. That would impact my content creation rewards more than getting 10% less of next to nothing! :)
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I don't think the bots are going away. I think we are just going to see the downvote pool make it a little harder for the biggest morons to keep abusing them. If I had to guess, bots are getting more powerful. Better to make one decent post a day than 5 poor ones, especially if you can earn bidbots favor. The thing that has me most concerned is giving a boost to people with massive bids. Are we just going to see mergers of groups that you must join or are at a disadvantage? Delegating to the powerful curators (bid bots with standards) may become a good investment.
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Good points.
Being transitional fish bigger than plankton and not even close to dolphin, there have always been bots, the futility of producing solo quality content, and the need for strong supportive groups. I have always strive. To produce 1 good post a day and the bidbots have always had to biggest votes (except the random @curie and @dtube votes and my buddy @broncnutz I guess.)
I love learning from folks in the know and sharing their thoughts. If you figure out the good bots worth delegation (with standards,) shoot me a message on the phc discord!! ;)
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Long story short: for me this means income zero. None of my posts ever made 16 steem, most not even 1 no matter how much or what I write.
I think I will change my posts into a picture with 1 word or line and focus on something else.
Thanks for sharing this. It is the first clear post about this subject I read.
☘💕
It may make sense for most people to delegate all their steem to bidbots and curators. Then either exclusively use those services on their posts or go enjoy doing other things.
I think it will concentrate power.
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...it makes even more sent to put your steem into lite coin or something! lol..
This is the best post on HF21 that I have seen. I have to say that your explanation of 2e12 likely means that my chance of spending much time on creating quality posts will go down dramatically. I will wait and see what happens, but I suspect very few un-bidbotted posts get more than 16 Steem. That means even more incentive to game the system by those with high stakes. Since I have to pay taxes on earned steem and since the value has dropped I lost money here in a year. Then count the effort spent on content and I lost even more. Sounds like we need new people making the HFs.
Proud member of #powerhousecreatives
That's my thought too. However, more people are going to curate other people's posts now.
It's also getting extremely complex. Steem already had a huge learning curve and now it is very intricate and complex. People are going to keep calling it a scam and a pyramid scheme and now this curve gives that argument another point..
Also wrote a post about it today!
My conclusion is that it will make the rich richer and it will increase the gaps between the classes on steem!
That's probably true. Especially if every single change is mixed together.
I am reading a lot of posts from people who think it will make this platform really great. I want to be optimistic because I have a good amount of Steem. But I would prefer if we implemented curation slider, only did the 10% SPS fund from everyone equally and maybe 1 free downvote a day (10 ~15%). I don't like this change to the curve, fixing the lower end isn't the end of the world, but adding a bonus to the upper end is sickening.
The people cheering larger rewards for bigger posts are mean. I get the idea of not allowing people to post 100 comments and upvote them to 0.001 for curation, I really do, but we can use a step to avoid that, we don't need a damn curve.
You know that curve could be the life savier the bots need. If the rewards indeed will increase with 33% when the value is about a certain thrshold it will create a business case to make a loss with bying a vote to end up overall with a profit on the post!
The more I think about it, the more I do see it as the start of a doom scenario!
To keep my chances alive I should try to get to dolphinhood before the HF kicks in!
Bur regardless if it will be a good or bad, it is going to be an interesting situation!
Well, that was my first thought. An OCDB bid now is 60 Steem. That doesn't quite get you to the 100 needed for a 33% boost, maybe around 25%? In any case, it gets us close enough. Also, with the increased curation, it will be huge for large bots. I can see them just changing their formulas a bit and really raking it in.
I just hope they do change their ways a bit and stop upvoting the most low effort stuff. Maybe the free downvoting will put an end to that.
It's not all bad. I'm just going to miss giving everyone 2cent upvotes who comment on my threat. Those kinds of voting habits will be too costly. For example right now it's around 20% of my vote strenght and I expect after it is 45% which is too much, but I'll get back half in curation, lol so it's just ridiculous for people with enough SP to do it. I suggest you have at least 3000 (nondelegated) SP under the change so you can push things safely above 0.02.
Excellent post. Thank you. It’s giving me a lot to think about. You did a great job of putting the proposed changes into common language for those of us who need some of this stuff to be pre-digested for us. 😆
@simplymike, see if you think this post helps answer your questions.
Thanks for the tag, @jayna. But it is still to much for my non-technical brain to grasp
@abitcoinskeptic, I think you couldn't be more right.
I didn't get all of it (I think I'm just a lost case when it comes to understand these technical things), but at least you managed to make a couple of things more clear.
Is this for real? Sounds like the bots are going to be busy again.
I don't get what they are trying to do? No, that's not right, I do. They're pushing people towards investing. All those small accounts who are fighting to survive every day, because they simply can't afford to invest, will be punished again.I thought they were killing their own platform after HF20, but HF21 will be a real genocide...
It makes me so sad, and like I stated in my post earlier this week: I'm not sure if i want to play their game anymore. But I don't want to think about leaving everyone here behind. Now way!
If only there was a different place and everyone would want to move with me....
To put it another way, if you have a dolphin with 5000 SP giving you a 100% vote, you would need 64 of them to get up to 16 Steem. There are only 2500 or so accounts that big but with 10X full votes a day. In any case, I'm sure 90% of them have no interest in engaging with me.
The dolphins and orcas will always do well, I see the steemit in crowd doing well, I see the art/music/creative writing communities surviving and thriving like usual. And like you said, people who find a niche or move.
I think palnet is worth trying out. I'm tagging it and it seems much more fair. I can bid a post up to like 150 Steem (that's only like a 15 Steem profit for me) and it is worth 4 pal where something I bid up to 50 Steem is worth 7 pal, so the metrics are much more rational. They base it more on engagement and obviously know the bots to rule out.
My guess is I will figure out how to game it without doing stuff that definitely gets flagged. I like experimenting and taking risks. I'll share my strategy. Actually, I look forward to it.
Maybe that kind of mentality is one of the reasons for the downtrend.
Hate the game not the player.
Although, you are right. Ideally it becomes undesirable to game. Free flags will being down the tolerance level as more are dolled out. I
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I'm tagging palnet too. People say curation rewards are better there, but with the low amount of PAL I have, I need to vote at 100%, which depletes my VP on temIt to much. I don't like that both are connected.
Only half an hour ago I was saying to someone that some people were probably already making plans to game the new system, and here you are, lol.
I don't have the insights to figure out myself how to game it, but I do like the gaming part 😉
I found the same thing about palnet. I sold all of my initial PAL (for 4X lower than it is now). However, I do enjoy starting from the beginning. It's just a shame I won't be earning anything from curating for several months. It seems stable and practical now, but I do wonder what will happen when there are 100 million of them in circulation and several whales popup.
I've already read several posts from people who think the new changes are just going to make bid bot strategies even more powerful. It seems the free downvotes are a possible defense. However, some of these bid bots have 5 million Steem Power behind them which is a large deterrent for downvoting people simply because they use the service.
I do see the category for "bidbot abuse" perhaps getting more strict and powerful, but people who put in sincere effort will be allowed to use them for the time being. Perhaps, it will make bidbots like ocdb become the norm which would be great. A few of them I've come across have zero standards and basically, ignore all criticism. Maybe downvotes will make them behave (they are going to be more reliant on curation now), or atleast the delegators swich out.
I read one post that said this EIP was strictly for whales, developers, and witnesses.
I think that would only come true in fairy tales.
Like you say, they're so powerful and there will always be a truckload of money to be made, so I don't really see that change...
It is quite difficult to understand. Imagining the combined effects is even more difficult. That's why I think they should slowly do it over time. It's a little overkill in my opinion.
Well, if that happens with the lower than 16STEEM post payouts then I'm categorically fucked on my posts. I scrape 3-5 STEEM (sometimes the dizzying heights of 8-10). Now the author rewards are going to be slashed and this non-linear whatchamacallit means I may as well post for nothing...
Will have to see how it goes when (and it's a question of when) this new HF21 comes in to play
Great article by the way, thanks for taking the time to put it together.
It's too early to say what the revenue decrease will be.
I keep track so I will be reporting quickly.
I feel sorry for anyone who isn't a whale, developer or top witness and relies on Steem for their income.
Yea it's going to hit those poor guys the most who rely on steem as a source of living. I look forward to reading your updates as this looks like it's going to wipe out a lot of the user base that remained after HF20
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So, bottom line, our rewards will go down. Nice. That's exactly what we need right now when everyone is leaving for other platforms like Narrative and Voice. Take away rewards from minnows and increase them for whales. Not a good thing.