There are a lot of waves coming into the cryptosphere over the next few months.

Traditional winter bull run + economic climate + halving + strong support

These waves can create additional smaller waves.

For example, unit-bias is a very powerful psychological motivator.

Weird things are going to happen when Bitcoin hits 20k.

I've been thinking about this more and more lately... where is the price action going to land this winter? In realizing I believe the ATH will easily be breached, this also implies some other speculations.

FOMO at 20k

I've already talked about how the alt-market could experience a very swift FOMO pump and dump when Bitcoin hits 20k. Self-fulfilling prophecy there... the best kind for pump and dumps.

Something else I realized though. This run is off to a quick start. It's not even November yet. The sooner we hit 20k the longer we have to generate that 20k FOMO. You know what else lines up pretty well with the 20k unit-bias FOMO?

Correct! The 1T total market cap FOMO.

Because if Bitcoin doubles to 20k, then our market cap is already up to half a trillion. Therefore, if 20k FOMO hype drives the price to double again, we're going to run into some epic $1T market cap hype. People fucking love round numbers, I tell you what.

Ideally, the $1T market cap hype would then cascade into a spectacular pump/dump situation. At best the market would double one last time to a total of $2T total market cap and 80k Bitcoin. The dump after this would be pretty legendary, as Bitcoin could easily crash from 80k back to 10k.

---

Although after the second doubling there's a fair chance the market is already pretty bubbled. 40k bitcoin is already x6 higher than Bitcoin's doubling baseline as outlined in previous posts.

---

80k?

80k Bitcoin would be x12.5 higher than Bitcoin's doubling baseline and could possibly lead to a year-long bear market. I think the odds are pretty low, but it's possible given the perfect economic climate. You'll know it's possible if MSM essentially starts telling people to buy Bitcoin at the peak and they announce that a Bitcoin ETF has been approved.

---

It's all about timing.

I'm taking profits in December no matter what happens. How much I take and what those percentages are, is another story. Roll with the punches.

---

Big range

In conclusion, I think the peak of this winter's rally will be somewhere between:

$30k and $80k.

All about November.

If Bitcoin hits 20k in November I'll be pretty bullish and expect the peak to be 40k-60k come Dec/Jan.

If Bitcoin is like 12k-15k at the end of November I'd expect the price to top out around 30k-40k.

If Bitcoin stays flat in November I have no idea what's going on.

---

Do I think 80k Bitcoin is as likely as 30k?

No, 30k is much much more likely. 30k is about x4.7 the baseline doubling value of Bitcoin, and right around the mark I would expect during this time. My predictions made on the baseline tend to be much more accurate than any of the others.

---

80k bitcoin would likely require for the economy to go into crisis mode during that time and many big-money players would have to exit to precious metals and crypto to escape the stock-market dump.

It could happen... I guess.
Bitcoin FOMO is strong.
We've all been there.

---

Dead cat bounce.

After the winter run is over I expect a crash. I expect that crash in Jan/Feb. However, at the end of this crash I'm not only expecting the momentum from a dead cat bounce due to winter volatility, I'm also expecting consolidation in February to transform into a halving pump and dump come May.

Conclusion

• Taking profits in Dec/Jan
• Buying back in mid Feb.
• Taking profits early April.
• Buying back in early June.