Alt Market 20k Pump/Dump.
'Everyone' thinks that we can't get another full bull run before Bitcoin hits 20k. I think this is a bit ridiculous, but at this point...
Perception is Reality.
When bitcoin gets back into the 13k+ range we should be playing very close attention to the rest of the market. If the market does what it did in the summer Bitcoin will go up and a few choice top coins will gain some value as well. Coins like Steem gained practically nothing but still crashed durning the corrections.
I don't really think this is going to happen again, but if it does, it's giving us a very big signal for free money.
Free money? How?
If lower market cap coins do badly during the run up to 13k, 14k, 15k, 16k, etc. it likely points to an incoming altcoin frenzy when Bitcoin actually does reach an all time high. I imagine such a frenzy would be incredibly swift and result in a huge correction shortly after the fact.
Counting on the market to be greedy.
Bitcoin dominance is very high, and the higher it stays the more we know it can affect the rest of the market with a flick of the wrist. For example: Bitcoin's market cap is currently 3250 times bigger than Steem. There is a lot of money in Bitcoin that isn't going to want to exit until value gets to the 20k-60k range. The longer that value waits to pump the rest of the market, the more volatile the market will become.
Conclusion
Sometimes the perception of the market becomes reality. This new reality creates volatility, not because crypto is volatile, but because the new reality created is a false one; a shared delusion. It disappears like a puff of smoke and the market comes crashing back to the real world.
The idea that we won't have an altcoin bull run until bitcoin reaches all time highs is one we should take very seriously. There could be a lot of free money on the table for us to scoop up in as little as 3 months.
Conclusion conclusion
If we see a spike in the altcoin market when Bitcoin hits 20k we should anticipate a correction due to an irrational market powered by unit bias and all time high selloffs. The last time altcoins had real money pumped into them was after Bitcoin went x20 in a year (not x3 in 3 months).
We need to remember when Bitcoin was at this $1000 level it was already near the ATH. Value increased x20 AFTER that ATH moment before everything was fully bubbled. By this same metric using a base value of $6000 for Bitcoin, we would expect a run up to $120,000 in order for Bitcoin to be fully bubbled and ready to pop. Double that number if you expect it to happen a year from now.
Good insight. I agree: I think perception is going to play a big part in triggering an alts' correction.
It is the delay in bitcoin adoption for commerce that has delayed the overall acceptance of crypto which is needed for alt coins to have a purpose and bigger value.
I always like bitcoin as a store of value and a flag bearer for crypto. Just wish it didn’t hamper the adoption and usability of other better, faster, cheaper alts.
Pretty fun to watch and play though!
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Its hard to predict these things when you havent experienced the full wave.
Ive even ran into predictions relating new altcoins taking precedence over old altcoins in the next bull run.
Steem stands alone in this regard since there is nothing like it out there atm.
Still...
Certainty is hard to come by.
Ive never personally valued BTC highly and i never will. The tech value, i just dont see in BTC.
The market is pretty stupid and its shown to be rather idiotic in evaluation of numerous tokens like TRX, BTT, BSV, ETC, VERGE, etc.
That taking into account BTC will do its thing and the market will adjust to its state.
When will BTC become an inferior investment to putting it into altcoins is hard to tell.
A million usd in bitcoin cant nearly move the price as a million in Steem can move the Steem price.
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Looking at the history of the market money always flows into bitcoin, large caps, mid caps, then small and micro caps and it's a series of rising tides. Bitcoin will go up and then go back down as profits flow through the market until bitcoin is perceived to be a "value" again and then spikes back up.
Now is just the pullback from the $3k - $14k or whatever Bitcoin spiked up to. I wouldn't be suprised, however, if we never see some alts hit their previous highs of the 2018 alt market.
man i hope your right
you have made a lot of correct calls lately and we all second guess ourselves sometimes but i dont know what to think right now except that the market will keep going up
how fast depends on the people
cheers and have a great evening bud
A lot of group psychology plays a role here. However, the ultimate principles of supply and demand are going to determine the value of cryptocurrency (bitcoin and others). I predict that the coins that are based on scarcity models will increase in value and the ones which have inflationary models will lag behind
Personally I think that Steem's inflation is one of the best things about it. In theory users should want to stake more coins because of all the inflation being generated by them.
In practice I believe that our inflation is making the currency more volatile in both directions. This is great for swing trading (x100 gains) but terrible for a stable asset that the community can count on. I think it will be very important going forward to create a consortium of whales who attempt to buy low and sell high to keep our value at a more even keel.
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Looking forward to selling my bitcoin for good profits once it hits saturation to then spread that around into alts. Kind of an interesting game of cat and mouse. Timing is what remains to be seen.