Exploratory Analysis shows DApps activity is gaining market share on Steemit.com

in #utopian-io6 years ago

Last month I published an article showing the downtrend in benefactor reward in 2018.  If you missed that post you can check it out here.

https://steemit.com/utopian-io/@paulag/exploratory-analysis-of-benefactor-rewards-shows-dramatic-impact-of-downturn-on-dapps-1540645248384

Benefactor rewards changed over the year for a number of reasons.  

1. Less users

2. Drop in the price of STEEM

3. Some apps changed their rewards %

Because of this the charts show in this analysis did not reflect the usage of these app and so I wanted to have a quick look at how the much the user base and the number of posts has changed over the year from the different apps. 

 Repository

https://github.com/steemit/steem   

Aim of Analysis

  • Explore and visualize the activity from apps posting root comments to the steem blochchain.
  • Establish what % of root posts are made via Steemit.com and how this has changed over the year.
  • See what apps are growing in terms of root posts.

Exploratory Analysis

 

In the chart above we can see in the blue the distinct number of apps posting to the blockchain each month.  As December is only a part month, we can really discount this as it may not show a true reflection.

Beneath this shows the distinct number of authors posting to the blockchain each month.

The number of authors per app decrease considerably more than the number of apps posting.  Using an animated scatter plot this is considerably easier to see.

This first scatter plot show the number of posts made to each of the apps each month plotter against the number of authors.  We can clearly see Steemit way out ahead.  Esteem and Busy also shine threw. 

If we remove Steemit, Esteem and Busy we can get a clearer image of the other popular apps.  You can see Zappl doing well and then disappearing and also Dlive. Dmaina has dramtic reductions as does Utopian. Steempress seems to increase as many other decrease and you can also see the rise of parkito, actifit and some of the other new apps around October. 

Lets look now at these same metrics on a year to date view.  Again it is very clear to see how far out ahead steemit.com is when it comes to author activity. Esteem and Busy are also very clear to see.

Removing these 3 accounts we can get a better view of the other popular apps.  We can clearly see @steempress racing along from May with the numbe of posts but not increasing in the number of users.  Zappl stops moving in June and Dlive in September.  Dtube, Steepshot and Dmania all doing well.  

Removing Zappl, Dlive, Dtube, Steemshot and Dmania now in addation to Steemit, esteem and busy lets take another look.  Unfortunate this would not upload as a gif so I had to take a still from month 12.

  

As well as the apps that are preforming well, from this we can see a new cluster of apps that are on the rise.  A table view can be seen of the top apps sorted by year to date posts displayed by month.

 

If we sort this no by % per month we can see that in Jan Steemit.com made up 68.8% of all root posts made and now its standing at 51.61%

    

Conclusion

Steemit.com remians the most active app posting to the steem blockchain.  We can also see a rise in the activity of the other apps.  This is very encouraging and I hope to see the gap between Steemit.com and other apps close more in the next 12 months.

Its fantastic to see apps llike steempress, dtube, partkito, actifit and dlike take a market share of the posts in the last few months.  Its also interesting to see Dmania make a comeback.

I would love to see the same analysis done with comments, however the query for the year is way to big for me to analyse in this way using the tools I have.

Data and query

As always I connected to Steemsql managed by @arcange and I used Power BI to preform the analysis.  The M code used to gather this data was

let
    Source = Sql.Database("vip.steemsql.com", "DBSteem", [Query="select author, permlink, created, json_metadata#(lf)from Comments#(lf)where CONVERT(DATE,created) BETWEEN '2018-01-01' AND '2018-12-31'#(lf)and depth = 0"]),
    #"Changed Type" = Table.TransformColumnTypes(Source,{{"created", type date}}),
    #"Parsed JSON" = Table.TransformColumns(#"Changed Type",{{"json_metadata", Json.Document}}),
    #"Expanded json_metadata" = Table.ExpandRecordColumn(#"Parsed JSON", "json_metadata", {"app"}, {"json_metadata.app"}),
    #"Filtered Rows" = Table.SelectRows(#"Expanded json_metadata", each true),
    #"Inserted Text Before Delimiter" = Table.AddColumn(#"Filtered Rows", "Text Before Delimiter", each Text.BeforeDelimiter([json_metadata.app], "/"), type text),
    #"Filtered Rows1" = Table.SelectRows(#"Inserted Text Before Delimiter", each true),
    #"Removed Errors" = Table.RemoveRowsWithErrors(#"Filtered Rows1", {"Text Before Delimiter"}),
    #"Filtered Rows2" = Table.SelectRows(#"Removed Errors", each true)
in
    #"Filtered Rows2"

 

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Hi @paulag, hot topic and great visualizations of the results with the animated gifs! In combination with @abh12345's Steem Application Usage analysis and @miniature-tiger's latest monthly dApps Analysis this gives a pretty complete picture on the current state and how we got there over the last couple of months! Steemit is still #1, but their relative share is decreasing and we've seen some great dApps rise. Let's hope the absolute usage numbers follow soon.

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thanks for the review @crokkon, im looking forward to running this in a few months. i think we will see a different picture then

Thank you for your review, @crokkon! Keep up the good work!

WOW WOW WOW
Fantastic post, great charts! Having well over a hundred DApps is impressive, even though the contraction in use is a bit of a bummer. Great overview and cool moving graphics. Thanks for being a source of clarity in the confusion of the STEEM blockchain.

RESTEEMED (-:

Glad you like it @clumsysilverdad. I think as time passes we will see dapps usage rate grow and steemit.coms delcine further, this rocks

As we can see, the quantity of people using Steemit is decreasing by the time. It's an amazing thing since we can break out the hegemony of that app.
Thanks for sharing!
Cheers!

It will only be "fantastic" if the overall total number of people using steem (the blockchain and all the apps) was increasing! Which unfortunately is quite the contrary to facts

When the proportion of people using Steemit is decreasing on the backdrop of a sharp overall decline in users it is mostly indicative of the fact that the less engaged users peel away and only the "hard core" users remain. These latter users are by definition more likely to know about the other apps and know the strengths and weaknesses of each and make a more nuanced use of them.

Whereas "low intensity" users just default to steemit.com (but have currently all but deserted the platform)

I agree with you @sorin.cristescu about the overall quantity of people using steem. However, we need to see the crypto world as a whole. The quantity going out of cryptos is huge, the speculators are going out (besides people who invested and don't have the calm necessary to continue investing), but now, as we can see, people who continue to be here are that one who really think the platform have future.
So, we have a drop of total number of people, yes... But the overall quality has increase.

Unlike other cryptos, steem has a real offering for non-crypto people. If we are able to bring to the platform (and retain) non-crypto people - and we should be able to do that with such a platform, then we wouldn't be tributary to the vagaries of crypto prices

In short: Facebook users do not care about crypto prices! In 2,5 years we should have created a mass of "FB-user - like" users of this platform so as to be insulated from the swings in crypto prices.

We failed at that. That is not good news

For a platform which have so many peculiarities to understand and a waiting time for account creation of 2 weeks and huge difficult for a normal people to understand how to use, the base of users that we have is kind huge.

We cannot compare Steem with a Facebook platform, since the characteristics of people who use both platforms is really different.

Are you pointing to anything that is beyond our control ?

Facebook is an extremely complex platform, they have very sophisticated algorithms to choose what to show to whom at what moment and what ads to display and what clicks and likes to collect and how to organize them and what to infer from them.

Yet the Zuck has deftly manage to hide the complexity from the users. Is there any objective reason why we couldn't have done the same ? Why haven't we focused on creating a user experience that is so smooth that normal people would not care about understanding the inner workings?

Account creation is slow ... why ? Is this something outside our control ? Are we depending on someone else ? No, this was a management decision to make account creation slow and painful. It was as though we were reluctant to accept users.

So no, considering that we did it all to ourselves, there is no excuse.
And we should compare Steem with Facebook because if today the characteristics of people who use both platforms is really different it is all our fault !

We have prevented normal people from joining (with the pointless 3 week account creation time) to a point where only nerds and crypto die-hards could stay on this platform.

The consequence of our decisions is that we are completely dependent on the fickleness of crypto prices ! If you play with fire, you are going to get burned !

Actually, I'm pointing to something that's exactly in our control, but I'm not comparing apples to bananas.

Facebook has a complex structure behind it, but the principle of it was not to bring people showing that they could make money from it. When you use Facebook to make money, you have the same problem that we have in Steemit. In this case we come up with a very interesting question, how many people are on Facebook to make money? Analyzing this process, we can use the two groups of people on the same level, those who are on Facebook in search of money and those who are on Steemit for the same reason.

Now if we compare both sites, compare yes to the first two years, when Facebook had less than 10 million users for a system that I speak again, was not ideal as the financial return, as is explained here in Steemit.

Account creation is slow because you need to pay to have an account. If you want an account for free, you have to wait. In this case I ask, when did Facebook ask you for money to create an account? Is the business model wrong? I think not, if we did not have a great time to create a new account, we would have several fake accounts, and unlike Facebook, we can not ban them as this is not possible in Steemit and also goes against your goal Is not it?

Finally, Steem really failed ... Failed for lack of documentation showing how easy it was for you to access a platform with no ideological question that will erase your account because it simply goes against what your CEOs think. Now, why does not this exist? Blame the whales and the creator of the platform, or blame us as users that we show Steem as a way to post and earn money instead of showing that here we have a much greater amount of freedom?

If someone failed, it was not the others, they were ourselves, too. We have a great deal of guilt.

"Who is to blame" is not the point, obviously :-)
The idea is to seek together better ways forward, identify what was done wrong and agree on how to do it right going forward.

For me having to pay or to wait to have an account is an idiotic idea. If you position the platform as "uncensorable expression of opinions" AND you create free accounts fast AND you dangle the prospective of earning money for expressing your opinions then you are open to abusers ...

Fair enough, how do you solve this while keeping all the above parameters fixed:

  • uncensorable expression of opinions (it's the initial ethos of the decentralized system)
  • your voice is worth something (incentivization for participating, for voicing opinions)
  • free and fast account creation

Is this solvable ? Can you add something to the system that keeps the three features above while protecting the system from spam and abusive behaviour ?

That is the problem that needs solving IMO

image.png

Getting now from the P.A.L. discord server.@lukestokes

it will be fantastic when apps have more activity than steemit

After the last @ned talk, I think it won't need so much time to that occurs. Maybe in February we can see that. Busy is a tough competitor for Steemit, maybe will be busy getting the majority of the activity soon.
Thanks for sharing!

esteem is also a great competitor to steemit, and some of the newer apps, come feb should be more visible on the charts. I look forward to re-running this in the future

Totally agree. One os them that I bet that could have more activity is the steepeak. The quantity of resources and tools are amazing!

It's really nice to hear something ecouraging

it sure is

Would be interesting to look at activity other than root posts. I know there is one app that puts all of its content into comments, and some of the other apps may show relatively high usage in terms of non-posting engagement.

Obviously this raises the question of comment spam, automated voting, etc. though some of this may be identifiable as associated with specific app tags.

yes, steemmonsters for example is not included in this report as its not a 'posting app'.
There are too many millions of rows of comments to be pulled for a full year on the comments side, so maybe this would have to be a snapshop of 1 month if I were to look at this data, but I would expect to see 'parkito' rank very high with comments, I wonder how wrong I could be :-)

Then for voting...hmmm, im not sure of the top of my head about this one...

Why is musing and stemq not included?

All apps from which root posts are made by are included. Many dont make it out of that cluster to have an impact, and the tables show the top 28 so i dont bombard with massive tables of a few hundred apps for people to pour over. Do musing and stemq have authors use root posts or comments?

Posted using Partiko Android

what does root post and comments mean? Are you on discord? Can I chat you there?

A rootpost is a post whereas a comment is left in reply to a post. Yep im on discord, will be over there later this eve. Feel free to hit me up

Posted using Partiko Android

ok cool. Yes musing and stemq has the root post and comment option. They are more like quora/Stackoverflow etc

The trend has great implications for the ecosystem and should encourage DApps to continue developing as Steemit will continue to fall behind. Once others become the launchpad for new users into Steem, I would assume that retention could improve given the great communities being built around each. I have tried to limit my use of Steemit lately and have bot felt the need to go back at all which is great!

Posted using Partiko iOS

I agree, more focused apps should increase retention, this is a great thing.





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