Randowhale analysis! --- plus --- ๐Ÿ‹@randowhale vs ๐Ÿš€@booster vs ๐Ÿณ@bellyrub (...part 2)

in #steemit โ€ข 3 years ago (edited)

bellyrubboosterrando.png

Changes are coming to @randowhale! Before they arrive I've made a quick analysis of the current @randowhale upvote bot. This post is part two. You can find part one here.


This is an update on my analysis of the main upvote bots. I've been looking at @bellyrub over the last week. I talked about @booster on Sunday. Now it's the turn of @randowhale. You can visit my blog @miniature-tiger or the #upvotebots tag for my other analyses.

This project was undertaken to aid my learning of SQL. These stats are based on the data in sql.steemsql.com, a fantastic tool run by @arcange. As always, many thanks for making this available!

Reminders


  • At the end of the day, the key things to focus on are the quality of your posts and your engagement with the community. In the long run, these will determine your rewards on Steemit.
  • The main purpose of upvote bots is to give your work visibility. Getting your beautifully crafted post launched onto the hot list or the trending list can help to get it seen by more people who may share your interests. The "value-for-money" is far from the main story.
  • Please remember that the returns from auction-style upvote-bots (i.e. @booster and @bellyrub) are not guaranteed. They are dependent on the amount of bids made in the window, by individuals competing in the auction. Your post may receive less of an upvote than the SBD you have bid.

Comparison for Thursday 21.09.2017 to Saturday 23.09.2017


A quick update on the comparison I published yesterday. I've expanded to cover three full days, adding Thursday and Friday, just to make sure that Saturday wasn't an unusual result.

[For those that didn't read yesterday's post, the chart is a simple comparison of the
"post upvote value / SBD bid" results for the twenty-six-or-so auction windows for each of the two auction bots - @booster in silver and @bellyrub in blue - and the "average post upvote value / 0.5 SBD price" for @randowhale - in orange].

Screen Shot 2017-09-26 at 21.56.26.png

I've now managed to capture the secondary returns which I've included in the chart below. These are the upvote values from the Frontrunner Curation Guild for @booster and from @randowhaleboost and @randowhaletrail for @randowhale.

Screen Shot 2017-09-26 at 22.05.36.png

Conclusions

  • No new conclusions on the first chart. See yesterday's post for the old conclusions. The @randowhale average returns for Thursday and Friday were in line with those from Saturday and almost always higher than for the two auction bots.

  • On the second chart the randowhaletrail and randowhalebonus secondary upvotes were adding around 30%-35% on average to the primary results on Friday and Saturday. Note that randowhalebonus is a bonus and may or may not be activated; for example it wasn't running on the main Thursday awake period.

  • The Frontrunner Curation Guild for @booster appears to add very little extra return on average at the moment. This doesn't fit with my recollections of using @booster so I'll look into this further.


Breakdown of @randowhale returns and probabilities


Being a random upvoter, @randowhale adds different levels of upvote to each post; posts do not receive the average shown in the comparison above. In the chart below I include a breakdown of the different returns for each upvote level and the probability of receiving each return.

This is based on the data from Thursday to Saturday. Different results will be obtained for different periods, particularly if the underlying parameters of @randowhale are changed, but also as the steem price moves.

Screen Shot 2017-09-26 at 22.24.07.png

Screen Shot 2017-09-26 at 22.26.47.png

Conclusions

  • Even the lowest upvote (1.6%) provided an excellent return - around $0.84 upvote or 168% return on the SBD$0.50 price. Around 60% of participants received this upvote.

  • There was approximately a 20% chance of doubling your money by obtaining the 2.2% upvote, and another 20% chance of tripling your money-or-more by receiving one of the higher level upvotes.

  • There were thirteen 25% upvotes made (approx $10 each) and two 50% upvotes (approx $20 each). Lucky people!


Timing of @randowhale use


@randowhale provides a pretty-much immediate upvote, allowing you to capture the 25% curation from the upvote on a new post. 41% of people that used @randowhale did so within the first half-an-hour of a post's life. The fastest upvote I found was timed at six seconds!

Here's the distribution of that 41% of participants by number of minutes elapsed.

Screen Shot 2017-09-26 at 23.19.28.png


Further work


That's all for @randowhale. At least until the hinted-at changes are made.

  • @minnowbooster analysis tomorrow
  • And then a final comparison and conclusions of how best to use the upvote bots

Let me know what you think would be useful!


Final notes


I note that I have no affiliation with @randowhale or @booster or @bellyrub (or any other upvote-bot) and my analysis is entirely independent.

If you have any questions on @randowhale, read this post:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@randowhale/randowhale-101-everything-you-need-to-know-about-randowhale

That's all for today. Thanks for reading!


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So far rando is doing great
Booster dying almost in terms of returns

superb analysis.

Thanks!

Great analysis, need more posts like this on steemit

Thank you!

i guess i should make sure i capture the curation from my minnowboosters too

It's worth considering. There are arguments the other way though as well. Some curators won't upvote a post that has already received an early boost.

this is true, i try to wait at least 15 minutes... hmmm, we'll keep trying to figure it out (-:

ย 3 years agoย (edited)

Nice analysis about @randowhale but i used all bots services for my old account. i am not satisfied with @randowhale . every day changing they are rules . Newly they introduced sleeping and awakening system. it's a trick for take 25% curation reward from us.

also they giving over 80% votes under 2% voting power. current time - 2% vote = around 0.78$ for 0.5$, cutoff 25% curation reward and finally you get 0.58 $ it's get 18% profit . we want wait 13 weeks for get full 18% or 0.08$ profit

my favorite is minnowbooster they currently giving over 50% returns with 25% curation reward . but they have limited votes for users , instant and always opened for buy votes and they didn't making any change rules often. best

Hey @rickysu. Thanks for your comment. I'll be looking at @minnowbooster today. It'll be interesting to see where it fits!

For @randowhale (as for all steemians) the upvote value changes with the steem price and reward pool movements. As at now (Wednesday 10.30 GMT) with the @randowhale account upvote:

  • The 1.6% upvote (the lowest level) is worth $0.80, so down a few cents since my study. But even with 25% curation it's still well above $0.50. I'd also say it's possible to capture the 25% with randowhale if you post at the right time (the fastest post to upvote time I found over the three days I looked at was 6 seconds!!)
  • The 2.1% upvote (the second level) is worth $1.01, so a doubling of the $0.50 stake. 40% of people in the study above received this upvote percentage or one of the higher ones.
  • The average return in the study was over 200%, moving up to 250% when randowhalebonus was running.

The aim of what I'm trying to do is to put these stats out there so that people can make an informed choice. Everyone will have their favourites (I don't. I'm impartial!). Some people don't approve of the upvote bot system at all. But at least with the stats people will have a better idea of what they're getting into.

my opinion is @randowhale is a gambling bot. if you lucky you get over 2% upvote and unlucky you get under 2% vote

before 2 weeks i bought first and last 5 votes from randowhale for total 2.5$. i got all 1.5% votes! every votes equal to 0.64$ after payout i got only 2.40$. now you think it's random vote , no it's planned vote % like gambling .

why they can't give fixed voting % , if they give fixed voting % they can't do gambling . world more profitable business is gambling

Nice work an analysis you have done for the community! There may be a 'best time' to use bots like Bellyrub and Booster depending upon the time of day within the country that your in...? During the day in the USA, many people may be using the service compared to 3am in the morning EST...?

Thanks! There's more to come. I'm looking at @minnowbooster today.

You're absolutely right about the time of day. I looked at this for @bellyrub last week:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@miniature-tiger/bellyrub-analysis-for-friday-22-09-17

The fourth and fifth auction windows each day (around 08h to 13h UTC) averaged the best returns over the week for @bellyrub. This is night time in the US.

However for small bids @randowhale return was pretty consistently the strongest of the three I've looked at so far. And it also benefits from being immediate. I'll be interested to see how @minnowbooster compares.

Thanks for the great info! (followed!) From the services I've used, randowhale has a consistently good ROI and minnowbooster also does well. Yesterday I sent 2 SBD's to bellyrub and received a return around 1.30... the first thing that I thought of was wrong timing as it was around 3pm PST (California).

Thank you for your info @ miniature tiger
Re-steamed and upvoted!

Thank you!
Keep an eye out for my next analysis. I'll be looking at @minnowbooster today!

you're welcome @miniatyr-tiger

Will look at your analyzes

A really good and insightful analysis.

Thank you!

Nice posts but some of those charts are next to impossible to read.

Too small I'm assuming? Rather than too muddled?

Yeah just the size of text mate.

so far i must say minnowbooster wins from rando , you know when you can vote , and it's good to have a limitation on the amount of upvotes you can buy . i always find rando sleeping on the job :(

I've nearly finished my @minnowbooster analysis. There are some interesting oddities to be aware of!

Quality work here! As a bot user/abuser i'm always keen to gain new insight. I did expect rando to come out on top, but he's hardly awake on my daytime! The mornings in Europe (sat, sun) are usually good for a bellrub and boost.

Thanks, following!

Thanks! I like your 'bot wars' post. Very comprehensive. Looks like there are a few more for me to analyse!

Thank you!

Yes, there's a new bot every week at present - could be scope for an updated post on them later! :)

Dear randowhale,,,I have two transfer corresi but I have not yet got the benefits

I'll just point out that I'm not @randowhale!
It looks like you received your upvotes now though.
Previously there were two payments returned because randowhale was sleeping - you can see this by checking in your wallet.

nice analyse, what time zone is in charts? so i will know when to buy auction bots:)

It's Universal Time (UTC). Everything in the sql.steemsql.com database is in UTC as far as I can work out.

I love your service I just wish your time zone was different :p

I'll just point out that I'm not @randowhale!

Huh. It would appear you are a miniature tiger. o.O

Nice work!

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Thanks for sharing
I like it

No worries!

thanks for the great analysis there. Getting to know @randowhale better ๐Ÿ˜

No worries!

thank you very much for your explaination for this analysis, this information helpfull.

No worries! Thanks for stopping by!

Follow Back And 3 Upvote Back daily
https://steemit.com/@tushartosi

what a great whale, really wanna use at least one of them someday, it's just i never have a chance , :-(

Thank you very much for your good information.Amazing..

No worries!

great post, followed. thanks for sharing

Lucas
Malabarize-se

No worries. Nice monster!

thanks! I think he likes you

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