🐳@bellyrub Analysis - for Friday 22.09.17 🐳

An update on my analysis of the main upvote bots, starting with @bellyrub.
You can find the original post explaining the details here.

This project was undertaken to aid my learning of SQL. These stats are based on the data in sql.steemsql.com, a fantastic tool run by @arcange. As always, many thanks for making this available!

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Reminders

• At the end of the day, the key things to focus on are the quality of your posts and your engagement with the community. In the long run, these will determine your rewards on Steemit.
• The main purpose of upvote bots is to give your work visibility. Getting your beautifully crafted post launched onto the hot list or the trending list can help to get it seen by more people who may share your interests. The "value-for-money" is far from the main story.
• Please remember that the returns from auction-style upvote-bots are not guaranteed. They are dependent on the amount of bids made in the window, by individuals, and not by the people who run the bots. Your post may receive less of an upvote than the SBD you have bid.

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Friday 22.09.17

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Results

Friday's post upvote value / SBD bid results for each auction window have been added to the week-to-date chart (in violet). They range from 51% to 200%, with an average of 132%. We now have a full week of results, capturing the period following @bellyrub's powering up to a $50+ upvote!

I've added the full set of results in chronological order so that we can see the trending of returns over the week. I've left out Saturday's results from this chart as they were very high and distort the trend over the rest of the week.

Brief thoughts on the results:

• Five auction rounds were above 100%. Two rounds were below 100%, providing an upvote less than the SBD bid (no account is taken of the 25% curation in these figures). An analysis of these two rounds is included below.
• The fourth and fifth windows (around 08h to 13h UTC) averaged the best returns over the week (excluding Saturday with average returns of 190% and 200% respectively.
• There are typically nine auction windows per day (24 hours / 2hours 40 minutes = 9) but on the days when the upvote process runs slowly there may be only eight. The windows do not line up exactly each day and there is some judgement involved in deciding whether the window running across midnight ends the last day or starts the next.

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Bidding patterns

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A look at the overall bidding patterns for each window across Friday (i.e. the timing of the transfers made to @bellyrub). The first graph groups bids into ten-minute bands for each of the auction windows across the day. The second graph is the same but with all nine windows aggregated.

As can be seen, large bid amounts arrived towards the end of the auctions for window 1 and window 7.

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Analysis of auction rounds below 100%

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Two auction rounds (1 and 7) provided upvotes less than the SBD bid (no account is taken of the 25% curation in these figures).
[Remember that the returns from auction-style upvote-bots are not guaranteed. They are dependent on the amount of bids made in the window]

• For auction window 1: There was a collection of bids totalling $40 from @zeartul, who runs @bellyrub, for the results of a bellyrub upvote giveaway [competition post is here].

• For auction window 7: There was a bid of $27, again from @zeartul, to promote a very worthwhile cause, with lots of money raised! [link is here, still plenty of time to upvote].

[If the return is important to you, it's worth keeping an eye on whether large bids have been made in an auction window.
You can check this by looking at steemd.com/@bellyrub - follow this link and looking at transfers received since the last set of upvotes.]

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Further work

I'm progressing with @booster next and a comparison across the main upvote bots.

I'll be keeping an eye on @bellyrub though. I aim to provide some form of regular report update across the main upvote bots. Let me know what you think would be useful!

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Final notes

I note that I have no affiliation with @bellyrub (or any other upvote-bot) and my analysis is entirely independent.

That's all for today. Thanks for reading!

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