[Follow Up Post:] 4 Years From Today You'll Have Over $150K USD - True or False? - or - Can Worst Case Scenario Be Even Worse?steemCreated with Sketch.

in #steemit4 years ago (edited)

Can Worst Case Scenario Be Even Worse?

The short answer is, YES - the worst case scenario can be even worse!

Coins

Three days ago I posted the article "4 Years From Today You'll Have Over $150,000 US - Worst Case Scenario - If You Keep Posting, Commenting and Curating Daily."

I was very excited about my findings, played with the Steem Power Calculator, watching my Steem Power growth, checking where from and how come that interest comes from, even made my own Excel spreadsheet and played a bit with data.
The results I've got were so astonishing and remarkable that I couldn't resist, not to share it at once.

Unfortunately, I was wrong! - Not entirely but still, wrong!


Therefore, as first and above all I want to apologize to all of you, and especially to those of you who might feel tricked as this certainly wasn't my intention.


I don't know did you heard the expression:

The path to hell is plated with good intentions!

But that's exactly how I feel now. Despite my good will and best intentions, but giving you, although not purposely, inaccurate info, really makes me feel like hell.
(Not even to mention, how angry I am on myself, especially as the one who was always 'blamed' to double or even triple check everything.)

In the meantime, since I posted that sensational news (I thought I discovered), I tried to find some more official data regarding this matter, talked with many people who should know better and as well again checking Steem Power interest appearance and movement through my account.

Here are my findings.

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The bad news and the good news!

The Bad News

The bad news is that at the moment daily interest on our Steem Power is not 0.6% per day (or 219% per year), no matter how many of us with me in the first place wished that it's really true.

Maybe it was a year ago, for some short period as I don't believe someone would post something like that or even less create a whole calculator page for nothing.

On the official Steemit FAQ page is somewhat explained how, why and where from that interest comes from. From my understanding, the interest is created to cover the inflation caused by the creation of many new tokens generated by the blockchain.

Therefore...
Yearly Inflation Rate

According to that information, and as we recently just reached the amount of 14,000,000 blocks our Steem Power interest would be set at 8.94% per year or 0.0244% per day for next 250,000 blocks when it would drop to 8,93% per year what would perfectly correlate with @edje's comment on my previous post.

But unfortunately, and despite the fact that this information still hangs on the official Steemit FAQ page, it seems this is not the case anymore either!



The information I've got from those 'who should know better' is that our Steem Power interest has been dropped down to about 1% per year (0.0027% per day) with one of the previous (not so ago) hard forks what perfectly proves @steemking777's comment given on my last post.

The problem is, the developers can go in and change the algorithm at any moment, in which case this prediction would no longer be a fact.

To conclude the bad news

All of us who were excited by the idea that without some big efforts and only by earning 0.100 Steem Power per day, pushed by compound interest would be able to accumulate 100.000 Steem Power in next 4 years, now have to face that it's not going to happen that easy.

In other words, we would have to work much harder to accomplish that goal in the same time frame.

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The Good News

The good news is that the earnings we are holding in Steem Power still bring us some interest. As well, the good news is that it's a compound interest.

The related data that I collected from my account (just in last 3 days) shows me the rate is not yet set that low (1% per year) as I've been told by those 'who should know better,' what I consider, especially having in mind all previously listed bad news, as a good news too.

In other words, my account data shows me that the current interest rate is set somewhere in between 1.90% and 2% per year what would be about 0.005% per day.

Based on the calculation from my previous post where daily interest was calculated at 0.6% per day we were supposed to earn only 0.100 SP more each day.
According to my newest findings where the daily interest rate is 0.005%, we would have to increase our daily earnings up to around 67 SP. It might be considered as a bad news or at least, not so good one, but in fact, it's not. Allow me to explain why.

In my previous calculation, a member would be able to reach 10,000 SP only after 2 years and 11 months (almost after 3 years) despite the high-interest rate of 0.6% (which would play its main role after that period, in the last year, on the way to 100,000 SP and the end of 4th year).

But we have proof that consistency and steadiness in posting, commenting and voting, may bring us to that first goal (of 10,000 SP) 3 times faster no matter of the amount of the interest rate, which was perfectly presented by @scaredycatguide's comment.

10K SP after one year

Even brighter proof and example that the goal we are all looking for can be reached even faster, @hilarski gave us in his comment on my last post.

150K in less than a year

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Final Conclusion

Although many of us would much rather, with just a little previous effort enjoy much larger, more or less passive income afterward, it wouldn't work that way. Yes, we would have to earn every single vote (no matter how big or small, but highly valuable), and prove that we are truly worthy to be followed (no matter what our passion is, around which we would create our content).

Climb

If we continue to bring the value (no matter in which form or shape) to others, with passion and selflessness, in consistent and steady manners, I'm sure it would bring right people in our lives that would help us claim that tree or even mountain and the reward would find the road to come our way (with or without Steem Power interest).

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Last, but not the least, I'm kindly asking you to accept my apology for every possible ungrounded high expectation my previous post might have given to you, as my intention wasn't to trick, mislead or deceive you by any means, not the slightest.

My special apology to @flauwy (and his wife) who was, after me, probably the most excited with my outdated findings.

Hoping that at least some of you would accept my apology, I'll take it as the greatest gift you could give me today, on my birthday.


Photos: Pexels


Posted on Tuesday, July 25, 2017

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That's totally fine @ana-maria. Don't feel bad. I can understand how excited you would be finding this and did a little hasty job in posting. But along the way, you made us all aware about the interest thing and shared knowledge on how things are working underneath steemit.

In other words, my account data shows me that the current interest rate is set somewhere in between 1.90% and 2% per year what would be about 0.005% per day.

This looks perfectly true as that is the almost same amount I came up as per my calculations.
I have posted some of my findings related to this topic at https://steemit.com/steemit/@mittalpatel/no-just-holding-steem-power-won-t-make-you-millionaire-so-easily-2017725t22436458z .

Upvoted and you get a new follower!

Thank you very much for your understanding and support, @mittalpatel! Appreciated a lot!

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I told you in the previous blog that sounds to crazy to be true and honest to be even me i got excited for a while. As i mention few times before the most important thing here is to have fun and enjoy what you are doing as the rest will follow... even more then 10k in Steem Power... be original creative and enjoy do it!
Don't worry about the wrong information, the blog was a good one, well structure!
Again enjoy every thing that you are doing here and the rest will follow and always Steem on!

Thank you very much for your understanding and support, @georgemales!

And I agree with you completely regarding...

most important thing here is to have fun and enjoy what you are doing as the rest will follow... even more then 10k in Steem Power... be original creative and enjoy do it!

I have just seen this post. Thanks for the update.

Thank you, @flauwy! 🙂

Hey, we all make mistakes!

It's good that you've had the courage to recognize and correct yours! ;)

😄😇😄

@creatr

Thank you for understanding, @creatr! 🙂

Hi again,
first of all belated happy birthday. And apology accepted. Such things happen with everyone, no one can be always correct. And who knows if you are correct this time or not, and it doesn't matter as long as you keep correcting, but never give up and keep posting.
See you soon.

Thank you & thank you (for birthday wishes & accepting the apology)! 🙂

As well, thank you very much for understanding and support, @sanjay91422! And I'm definitively not going to give up and will do my best to keep posting. The only thing that is killing me heavily last few days is the lack of time.

Growing three children must be a time consuming job.

Yes, it was! 🙂 But they are grown up now, so the type of obligation changed and lowered down (for now). Although being a mom or parent, in general, is not a part time job. It's a lifetime job and it doesn't stop no matter how old and independent children become. 😉

haha, yes, children remain children, no matter how old they are. I am almost 30, but I am still like a child to my parents.

hahaha - Yes, and you'll always be even when you are going to be 50 or more!
This reminds me of an old scene when my mom was arguing about something with my granny (her mom). My granny was over 90 at that time and my mom was close to 70. However, my granny was quite pissed off at her and at the end, she told to my mom: "You, brash whippersnapper one!" 😁

lol... I can relate with that example with my mother and her mother.

It's all about where you find your sources ;=)

Joker! - Yeah, it's easy to say now! 😉

"The Mistake is the thing which proves the existence of Human!
Accepting that Mistake make that Human a Good person!
Correcting that Mistake make that Good Person a HERO!"

Although I made this quotation myself right after reading this Post, but I am saying you that it is 100% true and will be quoted in Future!

Now you know you are on which stage! :-)

Well, after I swallow that bitter pill (which I prepared for myself alone) and after I will manage to put myself back on track with Steemit (as some real life obligations are killing me last few days), I think I would be right on the stage of starting and continue to post all over again! 😉🙂

Never the less, thank you very much for your support dear, @ahsansaeed!

You are most Welcome! 🙂

I also thought that there was something wrong.. Even if it would be 0.6% the developers would havr changed it soon..

Yeah, unfortunately! - But, I still think it's not the reason to give up. Quite in contrary!

I read your first post first before I came here. Please see my comment, and request there as well. All this information has really opened my eyes. You've inspired me to keep moving forward and be consistent. 4 years may seem like a long time, but it's not. Time flies, especially in retrospect. So whoever who was having doubts about steemit, this post should lay that doubt to rest now. Let's steem on fellas.

Thank you again for your comment, @digitalpro! I saw your comment under my first post and I already replied to it. Unfortunately, for all the reasons I explained there, I can't fulfill your request although we would both like that I can.

Ok, @ana-maria. I'm with you. Thanks for replying

We all make mistakes Ana, but it takes a good person to admit them. No matter what the data say I believe this platform is like life. You get what you put into it. So let's just focus on creating great connections, and enjoying each other words on paper, and the rest will take care of itself. Thanks for all the info about Steemit again, and taking the time to explain it all to me. Including this article. I have learned so much from you. Have an amazing day Ana. :)

Thank you very much for your kind words, understanding, and support, @awakentolife and once again welcome to Steemit! 🙂

You are more than welcome my friend. I wish you a great day :)

Thanks for the updated information! It takes greatness to accept ones mistake @ana-maria great job!

Thank you very much, @ssadis!