HF 21 - Some Thoughts on the Changes to Come

HF21 is on the way, almost a year after HF20.  I’m really glad now I am no longer a witness.  I remember the stress HF20 cause me last year.  No longer being a witness means this year I can look at things with a different hat on and so much less stress.  I do hope the witnesses don't end up working day and night to quickly fix bugs and roll out a load of new released within the weeks that follow.   I hope it goes smooth and the testing has been done!

The changes coming are rather big.  First, the rewards pool will no longer be split 3 ways,  but 4.  Added to the mix will be a proposal fund and anyone can submit a proposal to access some of that fund. That means there is less available to content creators and curators.

Next, is the split between authors and curators.  This will change from 75/50 to 50/50, on a reduced rewards pool.

Then we have a change in the payments to authors away from a linear curve.

Finally, we will also have some free downvotes.

I ran some math when this was all announced.  I took a weeks’ worth of posts, reduced the pool by 10% and then recalculated the rewards based on the new curve and the new 50/50 split.  As an author I wanted to see where I stand.  Frist, I thought I must have done something very wrong in the workings.  But now looking back, I’m not so sure I made that big of a mistake.

What I would say is that with the new downvotes, it’s too hard to know what will really happen.  Taking a week worth of posts and revaluing them without factoring in some sort of downvotes that was not there before is not the right approach.  But knowing how people are going to use these is way beyond the capabilities of my crystal ball.

However, when the HF is rolled out, from what I understand and please do correct me if I am wrong, posts for the previous 7 days will be revalued and paid out under the new system.  That’s a week of no flags and I think my workings truly reflect that week.  Hold on to your hats, its going to be an interesting time.  People that have not done their research are in for a big surprise.

I still don’t want to share my workings and I am still hoping I am wrong. If the testing has been done, then I am for sure not the only one to have revalued the posts and tested the impact.  But as I am not a witness I don't feel responsible and don't feel like I have to share.  However it looks to me like if we don’t all change our voting and flagging behaviour, like big big time, the rich are about to get richer and the higher SP holders stand to gain.  I think we will see a massive clear out of steem users.  Users that were previously able to earn up to a dollar per post. The same users, holding low SP won’t see much benefit from increased curation rewards either because their votes is worth nothing anyway.

I was hoping some measures would reduce the downwards pressure on the selling of steem. 50% curation rewards mean more SP gets powered up and has to go thought the 13-week power down.  However, my fear is that the proposal pool will exert downwards pressure and we won’t see the benefit of additional steem power being locked into the system.  

Steemit inc funds by selling steem

Mostly likely the proposal pool will fund by selling steem

Misterdelegation (although being revised) funds by projects delegatees powering down and selling steem

Authors and curators are expected to power up for reduced rewards to fund?????

It will be the new year before the dust settles on this one!

I think on that note, I will end the post.