STEEM Price Analysis – January 2, 2017
The STEEM price has been in a two-week range, currently trading near the bottom of it.
Since a week ago, the STEEM price has not changed much. It is once again in the $0.15 - $0.16 range and still trading sideways. It recently bounced off of support right near $0.15 (red line). Volume over the past 24 hours is around $200,000, with ~$70,000 of that occurring in a span of one hour just a few hours ago. The blue line in the image shows the volume spike, which consisted of a large sell order.
We can see the sideways movement after the downtrend from the December 6th highs. The STEEM price has been trading sideways for nearly two weeks, mostly on very light volumes (possibly holiday-related). It has so far shown resilience at $0.15, but it can certainly trade lower to the all-time lows, so short-term traders shouldn’t be too comfortable with the current prices.
Stepping back and looking at the 2-month chart, we can see what appears to be a rather large head-and-shoulders pattern, which typically indicates a price/trend reversal, but it doesn’t leave a lot of room to the downside. Dropping from current prices to the all-time lows would only require another $0.05 price loss. However, it would constitute another 33% drop in the STEEM price, which is still significant.
The Poloniex depth chart shows some support below current prices, at ~$0.14 and ~$0.13, but nothing significant – about $20,000 and $40,000 of total orders, respectively. There are slightly higher totals in sell orders directly above at $0.16 than there are below at $0.14, but nothing that can’t be overcome rather easily.
The chart from Steemdb.com shows that the liquid STEEM supply has risen from 26.88 million (~11.25% of the total) on December 27th to just over 28 million today (~11.7%). Total STEEM supply has risen over 400,000 and vested STEEM has fallen by approximately 700,000. Even with liquid supplies increasing, the price has remained fairly stable over the past two weeks.
We will see a reduction of ~20% in STEEM becoming available via power downs this week, compared to the prior week, which was another ~25% reduction.
There’s not much more to say about any of this. Until the price breaks either way, we’ll just continue to monitor it and wait for some possible indicators. It’s encouraging to see the price not falling below $0.15 in the past six weeks, despite the big economic changes in the last hard fork. The “Dumpening” has not materialized yet, but that’s not to say that it won’t...or that it will. We just honestly don’t know.
Take those statements however you wish, but I don’t recommend trading with it.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional advisor and this info should not be used for trading. I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, but it would not be prudent to use this for transacting with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex. Analysis is current as of approximately 9:15pm EST, January 2nd, 2017.
Follow me: @ats-david
Thanks for the thoughts and analysis. Good data to be aware of, namaste :)
thanks for sharing this
I'm sitting here waiting for a fast rise and then a sharp fall... maybe make a few bucks. Starting to think I should just powerup instead. I hope they keep these SBD if you know what I mean.
Well, I just read a post that called for getting rid of SBDs...and @dantheman upvoted it. I'm not sure what to think about that, given the previous blog posts from him. I think it would be a very bad move.
The waiting game is tough game to call... but there's not much more anyone can do.
Well, that is interesting.
Good input. Been wondering similar
Sounds like a solid strategy. If they're going to make it predictable, take advantage of it. Just don't get too comfortable with it. That's when they burn you!
if that happens next Tuesday, I will blame you for it
I'll be the scapegoat. I seem to be a popular target this week anyway. I may actually be causing the STEEM price to fall.
LOL, maybe the ats stands for All the Steem and you are controlling it all secretly with your knowledge LOL
Pretty neat trend analysis CG. Thanks for that, I have made a note of that while I learn.
My liquid steem went up by one power down, but I am not trading it just yet... it is sitting in my savings 😀 I would guess that many also are powering down but waiting to sell...
The one thing I learned from trading bitcoin last year is how prices move on low volumes and comparing distinct pools of money in different exchanges and how the prices tracked... I think the increase in liquid steem will boost volumes as more speculators jump in and get out. I want to keep a lot of steem power for curating but the liquid steem if I hold it and it goes up decisively I can quickly take profit.
I think we are seeing the first minor wave of an elliot wave forming on the steem price chart. It should dip a bit more soon and then a second, taller wave will form. Yes I think holidays have slowed trading but with such a big rise in overall crypto market cap, it is only a matter of time before the bitcoin holders are trading into alts, and we will see yet what ones get the cream... At a guess, in order of magnitude, monero, ethereum, litecoin and steem definitely. We might see steem in the top 10 again.
Great input.
Once again great to read your information.
Upvoted early!
Love your stuff and have to get offline for the nite due to headaches etc but I just received 2 transfers being the recipient of the #payitforward post by @merej99 - she heard of the car running me over and the struggles I am having, so that was super nice of her, I have not had that much S. and SBD in my wallet hardly ever LOL. It is not much compared to some of your numbers but a lot for me LOL! I am thankful.
What do you think I should do with it David?
As soon as I get anything in my wallet I have been investing about 99% it right away back into the community here even though my numbers are tiny.
I power it all up and covert into Steem and then power that up too.
I will check for replies tomorrow, you know I value your opinions.
I really love your chart works and analysis a lot.
TY. Barry
Do what you want with that gift. If you need the money right now, then withdraw it. If you can afford to keep it invested, hoping that the platform will be successful and the price will increase, then leave it in your wallet. If you want to pay a portion of it to other users, then do that. It's always your decision, Barry. Whatever you choose, I'll be fine.
Thanks for the continued support!
Interesting as all get out. Was just looking at charts and wrapping my head around the crypto trading worlds. This past year I taught myself some technical analysis and strategy for forex, indices, & commodities in binary options. But the crypto corelations still elude me somewhat. For example, wazzup with that Market Depth chart? Wazzup with the Power Down days? How much Steem does one need before trading on poloniex or bitrex? Which is better or are they even the same thing? Does one need to convert the Steem into something else etc...
All I can say is I appreciate these charts people are putting up. Craig first caught my eye months ago and it's been helpful following him somewhat. But is there perhaps a post or a site that for newbie crypto traders to peruse and learn from?
Are you the same fellow who posted similar questions in my Steemit 101 Fascistbook group?
Fascistbook? Aka Faceboo? Aka SugarMountainBook?
Perhaps I was. I was putting it out there into the universe as they say.
Just looking for the beginnings of a breadcrumb trail. Picking things up as I go.
Cheers
Great post. Upvote :)
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