Week 5 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Results - Model Still Improving, Yet My Worst Week Ever (-$158.00)

in #sports8 years ago (edited)

$0.00

As in, nothing. Nada. Zilch. Big fat zero. I have been sitting here for the past hour or so just marveling at my own inefficiencies.

I know this whole thing is a process, and I realize there still is much to be learned in a loss. But, it is just hard not to feel deflated and embarrassed after seeing all my best intellectual efforts go to waste this week.

My week 5 ended up with me losing all $158 of my lineups split 70% in H2H and 50/50 competitions, 30% in GPP's. I got to about an average lineup of 138 points this week which isn't terrible, but obviously is not going to do it if I ever hope to consistently cash in the long run.

This puts my season at a $190 loss overall, or -35% profit.

However, my overall algorithm r^2 has increased to well over 28% and climbing. So what gives? Well, just because I am getting better at picking players doesn't mean I am getting better at picking lineups. I had several inefficient choices in players that were okay, but just not the home runs I needed. Guys like Emmanuel Sanders that performed up to my expectations, but not over them. These guys have been killing me.

But, the largest problems are my misses, of which I have had many. Guys like Zach Ertz, Dontrelle Inman, and Steve Smith that I have been falling in love with for salary and matchup purposes and under perform greatly.

My Best Lineup - 165 Points

This lineup was in a GPP Thursday-Sunday ticket that just barely fell out of the money. This is a theme that haunted me this week. I had some excellent selections here, but chose to fill in with guys like Sharpe and John Brown for salary purposes that just way underperformed. Sucks to be out of the money when a lineup hits 165, but those are the breaks.

My Worst Lineup - 107.3 Points

My Ravens plan that obviously backfired greatly on me. I felt they had a great match this week, Flacco was rated high on the algorithm, and I felt pretty confident in my low salary fill ins. I placed this in $30 worth of H2H and 50/50 tickets. Every single one lost.

My Heartbreaking HUGE 50/50 Losses - Only 3-4 More Points Needed For a $120 Swing

I entered both of these lineups exclusively in 50/50 tournaments spread across $60. As of the Sunday Night game, both were cashing. As soon as OBJ caught his garbage time touchdown, the cash line moved to 149 in both fields and I was left out on the doorstep.

I really loved these lineups for 50/50, specifically because of what I felt at the start of the day were pretty safe plays. Was not expecting Inman to blank, although in retrospect he was probably a terrible play with Gates coming back to make 5 solid options for Rivers. I am still super disappointed in Ertz, he had what I still feel was a recipe for success, just had a bad game. And, the Ravens just underperformed by all metrics. Hard to say if I was just unlucky in these spots, but the way the week went overall, it probably was just my overall poor lineup construction that sealed the deal. I should have opted for guys with better injury situations like Cameron Meredith than guys like Steve Smith and Inman in already crowded situations. This is something I will take into great consideration in weeks to come.

Inside the Data

Below is my box plot of the differences between predicted and actual results for Week 5, 2016 with examples of players that fell in each range. The majority of my results were between a 1.2 point median overestimate and a 4.5 point third quartile overestimate.

My "Normal" Distribution

Assuming all of my differences between predicted and actual are normally distributed (think bell curve), about 68% of my predictions lie on the interval [-8.34, 7.29]. This is about where I have been over the past two weeks, but the range is trending inwards. This means I am getting much better at narrowing down potential game performance ranges on players. Again, negative numbers here mean underestimates, and positive numbers mean overestimates.

Results by Player -- Week 5, 2016

I have to be disappointed with my major losses this week, but I also have to make the choice to learn from them and just move forwards. I have already picked up on a few extra signals in multiple linear regression testing that is promising for my Week 6 projections. I am also trending upwards in my overall r^2. And, I am getting very close to Week 8, the week where my backtesting has proven profitability. If I can just hold on until then, I am very optimistic about the weeks to come! I hope you continue to ride along with me!

PlayerPosTeamOppMyModelActualDifference
Antonio BrownWRPITNYJ22.522.8(0.3)
Ben RoethlisbergerQBPITNYJ21.833.2(11.4)
Philip RiversQBSDOAK21.831.4(9.6)
Aaron RodgersQBGBNYG21.317.93.5
Andrew LuckQBINDCHI21.325.2(3.9)
Joe FlaccoQBBALWAS21.113.08.1
Derek CarrQBOAKSD20.826.0(5.2)
Jameis WinstonQBTBCAR19.815.44.5
DeMarco MurrayRBTENMIA19.621.7(2.1)
Eli ManningQBNYGGB19.611.18.5
Emmanuel SandersWRDENATL19.515.04.5
Tyrod TaylorQBBUFLA19.215.83.5
Larry FitzgeraldWRARISF19.026.1(7.1)
Matt RyanQBATLDEN18.815.03.8
Demaryius ThomasWRDENATL18.815.92.9
Jordy NelsonWRGBNYG18.413.84.6
LeSean McCoyRBBUFLA18.420.8(2.4)
Matthew StaffordQBDETPHI18.319.8(1.5)
Ryan TannehillQBMIATEN18.25.612.6
Tom BradyQBNECLE17.732.6(14.9)
AJ GreenWRCINDAL17.79.08.7
Carson WentzQBPHIDET17.617.9(0.3)
Ryan FitzpatrickQBNYJPIT17.615.12.5
Brian HoyerQBCHIIND17.526.8(9.2)
Andy DaltonQBCINDAL17.522.2(4.7)
Odell Beckham JrWRNYGGB17.516.60.9
Steve SmithWRBALWAS17.45.911.5
Julio JonesWRATLDEN17.24.912.3
Michael CrabtreeWROAKSD17.113.73.4
David JohnsonRBARISF17.136.5(19.4)
Le'Veon BellRBPITNYJ17.124.4(7.3)
Kirk CousinsQBWASBAL17.013.33.7
Brandon MarshallWRNYJPIT16.828.4(11.6)
Mike EvansWRTBCAR16.720.9(4.2)
Matt ForteRBNYJPIT16.68.08.6
Jordan MatthewsWRPHIDET16.510.56.0
Melvin GordonRBSDOAK16.414.71.7
Julian EdelmanWRNECLE15.78.57.2
John BrownWRARISF15.32.113.2
Marcus MariotaQBTENMIA15.330.5(15.2)
TY HiltonWRINDCHI15.136.1(21.0)
Greg OlsenTECARTB14.930.1(15.2)
Amari CooperWROAKSD14.830.8(16.0)
Jarvis LandryWRMIATEN14.46.08.4
Travis BenjaminWRSDOAK14.321.7(7.4)
Dak PrescottQBDALCIN14.218.5(4.3)
Randall CobbWRGBNYG14.122.8(8.7)
CJ AndersonRBDENATL13.49.24.2
Ezekiel ElliottRBDALCIN13.435.1(21.7)
DeAngelo WilliamsRBPITNYJ13.40.013.4
Rob GronkowskiTENECLE13.418.9(5.5)
Michael FloydWRARISF13.30.013.3
Matt JonesRBWASBAL13.36.66.7
Alshon JefferyWRCHIIND13.312.70.6
Antonio GatesTESDOAK13.212.01.2
Jordan ReedTEWASBAL13.113.3(0.2)
Lamar MillerRBHOUMIN13.03.49.6
Mike WallaceWRBALWAS13.013.3(0.3)
Jordan HowardRBCHIIND12.928.3(15.4)
Darren SprolesRBPHIDET12.810.82.0
Robert WoodsWRBUFLA12.84.68.2
Blaine GabbertQBSFARI12.821.5(8.7)
Case KeenumQBLABUF12.78.83.9
Ryan MathewsRBPHIDET12.717.5(4.8)
Frank GoreRBINDCHI12.78.93.8
Eddie LacyRBGBNYG12.69.43.2
Eddie RoyalWRCHIIND12.611.31.3
Dontrelle InmanWRSDOAK12.51.311.2
Todd GurleyRBLABUF12.518.8(6.3)
Drew StantonQBARISF12.412.8(0.3)
Zach ErtzTEPHIDET12.46.75.7
Sam BradfordQBMINHOU12.318.6(6.3)
Terrance WestRBBALWAS12.110.91.2
Giovani BernardRBCINDAL12.115.6(3.5)
LeGarrette BlountRBNECLE12.19.72.4
Carlos HydeRBSFARI12.123.4(11.3)
Devonta FreemanRBATLDEN12.021.3(9.3)
Martellus BennettTENECLE11.930.7(18.8)
Delanie WalkerTETENMIA11.717.6(5.9)
DeAndre HopkinsWRHOUMIN11.716.6(4.9)
Kelvin BenjaminWRCARTB11.612.0(0.4)
Marvin JonesWRDETPHI11.513.7(2.2)
Isaiah CrowellRBCLENE11.55.06.5
Brock OsweilerQBHOUMIN11.310.40.9
DeSean JacksonWRWASBAL11.36.54.8
Tyrell WilliamsWRSDOAK11.225.7(14.5)
Terrelle PryorWRCLENE11.110.30.8
Derek AndersonQBCARTB11.08.52.5
Vincent JacksonWRTBCAR10.96.64.3
Will FullerWRHOUMIN10.81.49.4
Charles ClayTEBUFLA10.812.3(1.5)
Cody KesslerQBCLENE10.86.54.3
Andre EllingtonRBARISF10.81.98.9
Pierre GarconWRWASBAL10.516.6(6.1)
Jason WittenTEDALCIN10.47.33.1
Terrance WilliamsWRDALCIN10.412.0(1.6)
Jeremy HillRBCINDAL10.41.29.2
Javorius AllenRBBALWAS10.32.87.5
Anquan BoldinWRDETPHI10.28.81.4
Hunter HenryTESDOAK10.216.4(6.2)
Joique BellRBCHIIND10.20.010.2
Dexter McClusterRBSDOAK10.20.110.1
Theo RiddickRBDETPHI10.226.2(16.0)
Sterling ShepardWRNYGGB10.13.46.7
Zach MillerTECHIIND9.714.3(4.6)
Torrey SmithWRSFARI9.70.09.7
Seth RobertsWROAKSD9.64.25.4
Bilal PowellRBNYJPIT9.611.1(1.5)
Davante AdamsWRGBNYG9.619.5(9.9)
James WhiteRBNECLE9.512.9(3.4)
Golden TateWRDETPHI9.47.51.9
Quincy EnunwaWRNYJPIT9.39.10.2
Gary BarnidgeTECLENE9.312.6(3.3)
Andre JohnsonWRTENMIA9.39.3(0.0)
Nelson AgholorWRPHIDET9.15.23.9
Corey BrownWRCARTB9.03.35.7
Brandon LaFellWRCINDAL9.026.8(17.8)
Kamar AikenWRBALWAS9.00.09.0
Duke JohnsonRBCLENE8.94.24.7
JJ NelsonWRARISF8.80.08.8
Dorial Green-BeckhamWRPHIDET8.87.31.5
Jermaine GreshamTEARISF8.81.47.4
Dennis PittaTEBALWAS8.712.9(4.2)
Crockett GillmoreTEBALWAS8.712.8(4.1)
Jaron BrownWRARISF8.60.08.6
Kenny BrittWRLABUF8.612.5(3.9)
Markus WheatonWRPITNYJ8.63.94.7
Justin HunterWRMIALA8.67.41.2
Cole BeasleyWRDALCIN8.615.3(6.7)
Tevin ColemanRBATLDEN8.629.3(20.7)
Richard RodgersTEGBNYG8.61.67.0
Cameron BrateTETBCAR8.64.83.8
Devante ParkerWRMIATEN8.69.0(0.4)
Kenny StillsWRMIATEN8.50.08.5
Tavon AustinWRLABUF8.515.5(7.0)
Chris HoganWRNECLE8.418.6(10.2)
Danny AmendolaWRNECLE8.33.15.2
Rishard MatthewsWRTENMIA8.313.2(4.9)
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTETBPIT8.23.74.5
Jeremy KerleyWRSFARI8.127.2(19.1)
Ted GinnWRCARTB8.10.57.6
Andrew HawkinsWRCLENE8.015.6(7.6)
Brian QuickWRLABUF8.08.1(0.1)
Tajae SharpeWRTENMIA8.03.74.3
Will TyeTENYGGB7.95.72.2
Kyle RudolphTEMINHOU7.83.54.3
Orleans DarkwaRBNYGGB7.71.16.6
Bobby RaineyRBNYGGB7.713.4(5.7)
Wendell SmallwoodRBPHIDET7.60.07.6
Kendall WrightWRTENMIA7.61.95.7
James StarksRBGBNYG7.68.2(0.6)
Jamison CrowderWRWASBAL7.512.5(5.0)
Adam HumphriesWRTBCAR7.54.13.4
Brent CelekTEPHIDET7.40.07.4
Josh HuffWRPHIDET7.310.5(3.2)
Alfred MorrisRBDALCIN7.33.34.0
Josh BellamyWRCHIIND7.22.44.8
Brice ButlerWRDALCIN7.24.03.2
Chris ThompsonRBWASBAL7.28.5(1.3)
Mike GillisleeRBBUFLA7.16.60.5
Andre HolmesWROAKSD7.13.33.8
Fozzy WhittakerRBCARTB7.06.40.6
Robby AndersonWRNYJPIT6.92.04.9
Sammie CoatesWRPITNYJ6.834.9(28.1)
Dwayne AllenTEINDCHI6.817.0(10.2)
Kenjon BarnerRBPHIDET6.70.06.7
Jalen RichardRBOAKSD6.715.7(9.0)
Malcolm MitchellWRNECLE6.72.74.0
Phillip DorsettWRINDCHI6.64.62.0
Breshad PerrimanWRBALWAS6.63.13.5
Cameron MeredithWRCHIIND6.530.6(24.1)
Marquise GoodwinWRBUFLA6.49.3(2.9)
Darrius Heyward-BeyWRPITNYJ6.40.06.4
Mohamed SanuWRATLDEN6.46.30.1
Lance KendricksTELABUF6.14.41.7
Deandre WashingtonRBOAKSD6.010.2(4.2)
Quinton PattonWRSFARI5.93.62.3
Jacquizz RodgersRBTBCAR5.920.9(15.0)
Cameron Artis-PayneRBCARTB5.820.5(14.7)
Brandon MyersTETBCAR5.82.23.6
Logan PaulsenTECHIIND5.60.05.6
Vernon DavisTEWASBAL5.64.51.1
Josh FergusonRBINDCHI5.53.32.2
Jack DoyleTEINDCHI5.32.82.5
Dion SimsTEMIATEN5.31.63.7
Ricardo LouisWRCLENE5.33.32.0
Deonte ThompsonWRCHIIND5.30.05.3
Jesse JamesTEPITNYJ5.316.3(11.0)
Jerick McKinnonRBMINHOU5.25.6(0.4)
Ka'Deem CareyRBCHIIND5.22.72.5
James DevelinRBNECLE5.10.05.1
Garrett CelekTESFARI5.11.43.7
Devontae BookerRBDENATL5.09.9(4.9)
Jaelen StrongWRHOUMIN5.08.9(3.9)
Ryan GriffinTEHOUMIN4.92.82.1
Jay AjayiRBMIATEN4.710.2(5.5)
Derrick HenryRBTENMIA4.75.4(0.7)
Kapri BibbsRBDENATL4.60.04.6
Tyler BoydWRCINDAL4.36.3(2.0)
Kellen DavisTENYJPIT4.20.04.2
CJ UzomahTECINDAL4.29.3(5.1)
John PhillipsTEDENATL4.20.04.2
Jacob TammeTEATLDEN4.21.13.1
Bennie FowlerWRDENATL4.03.30.7
Alfred BlueRBHOUMIN4.03.90.1
CJ FiedorowiczTEHOUMIN3.910.1(6.2)
Tyler KroftTECINDAL3.95.9(2.0)
Blake BellTESFARI3.81.42.4
Brandon BostickTEGBPIT3.71.91.8
Kenyan DrakeRBMIATEN3.64.0(0.4)
Clay HarborTENEPHI3.30.03.3
Isaiah PeadRBMIATEN3.20.03.2
Adam ThielenWRMINHOU2.828.7(25.9)
MarQueis GrayTEMIATEN2.70.02.7
Matt AsiataRBMINHOU2.619.1(16.5)
Jarius WrightWRMINHOU2.67.2(4.6)
Tyler ErvinRBHOUMIN2.00.02.0
Austin HooperTEATLDEN1.72.4(0.7)
Charles JohnsonWRMINHOU1.71.20.5
Levine ToiloloTEATLDEN1.20.01.2
Cole WickTEDETPHI0.40.00.4
MyCole PruittTEMINHOU0.10.00.1
Eric WeemsWRATLDEN0.10.00.1

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Terrence West should have done so much better, he did very well per touch but they didn't give him the ball enough. Their offensive coordinator was fired following the game.

good stuff here looking forward to some Week 6 projections.

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