Week 3 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Results - Finding Some Success in Unlikely Places! (+$30.80)
Despite a marginal loss in prediction accuracy, I wound up about $30 for the week!
When I was making my Week 3 predictions article, I thought my algorithm was going nuts with a few of its weird choices. Turns out many of these actually worked out rather well and as a result vaulted me to a rather nice 34% profit for the week! This is in spite of my R^2 going down about 0.01 compared to last week.
This puts me firmly in the green for the season so far, with my overall profit percentage currently sitting at about 28%.
Week 3 Strategy
This past week I split my entries basically down the middle between Cash Games and GPP tourneys. I did extremely well in my Cash Games, winning in 87% of the lineups entered. The GPP's were hit and miss, but I had some rather nice successes with a few lineups cashing in at a 53% rate.
For GPP's, I tried to create lineups that stacked my overall algorithm top 5-7 QB's with another teammate my algorithm liked. A good example here was a guy like Ryan Tannehill that had a great matchup with the Browns, was in my top QB list, and had a teammate in Jarvis Landry that was high on the list for targets and potential redzone looks.
For Cash Games, I tried just to run my algorithm and take extreme care to adjust for strong and weak defensive matchups. I did not necessarily try to perform a stack in these lineups, but sometimes it just happened to work out that way.
The Excel Solver Lineup - 158.84 Points
This was my lineup I generated from my optimizer I created in Excel. My only two question marks were why in the world Chris Johnson and Terrelle Pryor kept showing up, but one of the two essentially vaulted me to my success this week. I owned Pryor in about 15% of my overall Draft Kings lineups, and it paid off rather handsomely.
His selection for me still is a bit suspect, because as @daut44 pointed out last week, I probably had prior QB data skewing his projection numbers. However, in addition to prior data from years in the past, the algorithm also looks at snaps, redzone snaps, potential future snaps, and potential future redzone events. Pryor showed up huge on all fronts because of the weak WR situation currently going on in Cleveland. He was the best of all options left. The Browns treating him like a second coming of Kordell Stewart and letting him rotate at QB certainly helped my cause as well.
My two other HUGE revelations were Jimmy Graham and Demaryius Thomas -- two players not trendy in the public eye, but were pretty large on my algorithm radar.
The Chris Johnson play was indeed terrible, but I'm convinced if the Cardinals would have gained any type of lead he would have gathered at least a few garbage yards or a garbage TD for me.
And how about the wasted salary on Julio Jones? I thought he was the strongest selection against a weak Saints D, but apparently this was the week they committed to the run. And why not, when you can hang about half a hundred on a struggling defense on their heels!
My Best Lineup - 181.76 Points
This was my Seahawks skew lineup for the weekend. Every year we seem to be getting this narrative about how broken the Seahawks are on offense only to find them consistently showing up among the best teams in the league as the season wears on. I wrote last week about how this might be a slump buster, and indeed it was.
I have very little regrets with this lineup at all. I could have grabbed TY or Marvin Jones instead of Matthews, but I was convinced they had terrible matchups. So, what do I know?
My Worst Lineup - 115.38 Points
This pretty much explains itself. I tried to be sneaky with the Cardinals, but then Carson Palmer threw four picks and the Cardinals D had a terrible day in Buffalo.
Inside the Data
Below is my box plot of the differences between predicted and actual results for Week 3, 2016 with examples of players that fell in each range. The majority of my results were between a -0.1 point Median underestimate and a 3.6 point third quartile overestimate.
In other words, I am still overestimating players just a touch week after week. I do expect this type of behavior though, as I am using a 75th percentile gamma function projection as an aggressive estimate for every player.
New this week - My "Normal" Distribution
Assuming all of my differences between predicted and actual are normally distributed (think bell curve), about 68% of my predictions lie on the interval [-9.98,6.35]. Again, negative numbers here mean underestimates, and positive numbers mean overestimates.
I am well aware I am not the only person running algorithms like this week to week, but have not seen any other information publicly aggregated like this to know whether or not this range is good or bad. I would like to think it is awesome I can project most players within this range, but I have no other comparison to judge.
Any mathletes here on Steemit aware of any analysis like mine out there for comparison? If so, let me know!
Results By Player - Week 3, 2016
All in all, I think it was a great Week 3! I'm already cranking out numbers for Week 4 and looking at some more surprises! I can't wait to share with you later this week!
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | QB | NO | ATL | 23.40 | 29.94 | (6.54) |
| Cam Newton | QB | CAR | MIN | 22.94 | 16.08 | 6.86 |
| Andrew Luck | QB | IND | SD | 21.66 | 18.24 | 3.42 |
| Matt Forte | RB | NYJ | KC | 21.34 | 8.40 | 12.94 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | NO | 21.32 | 19.90 | 1.42 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | PIT | PHI | 20.97 | 29.00 | (8.03) |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | GB | 20.91 | 30.50 | (9.59) |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | PHI | 20.89 | 8.98 | 11.91 |
| Ryan Tannehill | QB | MIA | CLE | 20.77 | 24.96 | (4.19) |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | DET | 20.21 | 26.40 | (6.19) |
| Julio Jones | WR | ATL | NO | 20.06 | 2.60 | 17.46 |
| Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | BAL | 19.81 | 14.46 | 5.35 |
| Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | DEN | 19.79 | 11.24 | 8.55 |
| Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | SF | 19.74 | 14.02 | 5.72 |
| Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | JAX | 19.11 | 13.76 | 5.35 |
| Derek Carr | QB | OAK | TEN | 19.04 | 12.86 | 6.18 |
| Philip Rivers | QB | SD | IND | 19.00 | 15.40 | 3.60 |
| Eli Manning | QB | NYG | WAS | 18.83 | 19.00 | (0.17) |
| Carson Palmer | QB | ARI | BUF | 18.79 | 7.48 | 11.31 |
| Alex Smith | QB | KC | NYJ | 18.75 | 13.18 | 5.57 |
| DeAngelo Williams | RB | PIT | PHI | 18.60 | 8.40 | 10.20 |
| Sam Bradford | QB | MIN | CAR | 18.50 | 10.64 | 7.86 |
| Jameis Winston | QB | TB | LA | 18.42 | 30.50 | (12.08) |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | NYG | 18.26 | 19.34 | (1.08) |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | NYJ | KC | 18.06 | 5.70 | 12.36 |
| DeMarco Murray | RB | TEN | OAK | 17.92 | 29.50 | (11.58) |
| Jordy Nelson | WR | GB | DET | 17.43 | 31.10 | (13.67) |
| AJ Green | WR | CIN | DEN | 17.10 | 15.70 | 1.40 |
| Blaine Gabbert | QB | SF | SEA | 17.09 | 5.96 | 11.13 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | NYJ | KC | 17.01 | 3.72 | 13.29 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU | NE | 16.79 | 9.60 | 7.19 |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | TEN | OAK | 16.51 | 7.76 | 8.75 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | BUF | 16.48 | 13.00 | 3.48 |
| Demaryius Thomas | WR | DEN | CIN | 16.39 | 24.00 | (7.61) |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | CHI | DAL | 16.30 | 12.00 | 4.30 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | WR | NYG | WAS | 16.21 | 22.10 | (5.89) |
| Eric Decker | WR | NYJ | KC | 15.72 | 4.10 | 11.62 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | NO | ATL | 15.69 | 3.90 | 11.79 |
| LeSean McCoy | RB | BUF | ARI | 15.68 | 29.60 | (13.92) |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | LA | 15.57 | 32.20 | (16.63) |
| Jordan Matthews | WR | PHI | PIT | 15.52 | 9.90 | 5.62 |
| Jeremy Maclin | WR | KC | NYJ | 15.45 | 7.50 | 7.95 |
| Tyrod Taylor | QB | BUF | ARI | 14.95 | 17.36 | (2.41) |
| Lamar Miller | RB | HOU | NE | 14.61 | 14.70 | (0.09) |
| Julian Edelman | WR | NE | HOU | 14.51 | 9.20 | 5.31 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | MIA | CLE | 14.46 | 29.60 | (15.14) |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | DEN | CIN | 14.22 | 35.70 | (21.48) |
| Dez Bryant | WR | DAL | CHI | 14.12 | 13.00 | 1.12 |
| CJ Anderson | RB | DEN | CIN | 14.08 | 5.10 | 8.98 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | PIT | 13.97 | 24.04 | (10.07) |
| Allen Robinson | WR | JAX | BAL | 13.95 | 24.70 | (10.75) |
| Frank Gore | RB | IND | SD | 13.83 | 15.30 | (1.47) |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | CHI | 13.78 | 23.52 | (9.74) |
| Allen Hurns | WR | JAX | BAL | 13.46 | 8.00 | 5.46 |
| Doug Baldwin | WR | SEA | SF | 13.44 | 33.00 | (19.56) |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | SD | IND | 13.44 | 17.80 | (4.36) |
| Greg Olsen | TE | CAR | MIN | 13.42 | 12.40 | 1.02 |
| Jordan Reed | TE | WAS | NYG | 13.39 | 9.60 | 3.79 |
| David Johnson | RB | ARI | BUF | 13.30 | 26.10 | (12.80) |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | CAR | 13.29 | 8.00 | 5.29 |
| Will Fuller | WR | HOU | NE | 13.15 | 6.10 | 7.05 |
| Eddie Lacy | RB | GB | DET | 13.14 | 14.50 | (1.36) |
| Randall Cobb | WR | GB | DET | 13.07 | 4.30 | 8.77 |
| Devonta Freeman | RB | ATL | NO | 12.99 | 34.70 | (21.71) |
| Case Keenum | QB | LA | TB | 12.88 | 14.70 | (1.82) |
| Latavius Murray | RB | OAK | TEN | 12.81 | 10.80 | 2.01 |
| Brock Osweiler | QB | HOU | NE | 12.80 | 8.14 | 4.66 |
| Anquan Boldin | WR | DET | GB | 12.79 | 12.20 | 0.59 |
| Pierre Garcon | WR | WAS | NYG | 12.56 | 10.90 | 1.66 |
| Trevor Siemian | QB | DEN | CIN | 12.51 | 31.98 | (19.47) |
| Chris Johnson | RB | ARI | BUF | 12.44 | 0.50 | 11.94 |
| TJ Yeldon | RB | JAX | BAL | 12.39 | 4.80 | 7.59 |
| TY Hilton | WR | IND | SD | 12.38 | 34.40 | (22.02) |
| Terrelle Pryor | WR | CLE | MIA | 12.26 | 34.90 | (22.64) |
| Michael Crabtree | WR | OAK | TEN | 12.20 | 21.20 | (9.00) |
| Mark Ingram | RB | NO | ATL | 12.20 | 22.70 | (10.50) |
| Amari Cooper | WR | OAK | TEN | 12.18 | 10.20 | 1.98 |
| Giovani Bernard | RB | CIN | DEN | 12.13 | 9.40 | 2.73 |
| Shane Vereen | RB | NYG | WAS | 12.08 | 16.50 | (4.42) |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | WAS | NYG | 12.06 | 20.60 | (8.54) |
| Michael Floyd | WR | ARI | BUF | 12.05 | 10.50 | 1.55 |
| Devante Parker | WR | MIA | CLE | 11.99 | 14.10 | (2.11) |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | CHI | 11.97 | 21.00 | (9.03) |
| Isaiah Crowell | RB | CLE | MIA | 11.94 | 7.90 | 4.04 |
| Steve Smith | WR | BAL | JAX | 11.92 | 16.70 | (4.78) |
| Mike Wallace | WR | BAL | JAX | 11.79 | 6.90 | 4.89 |
| Jimmy Graham | TE | SEA | SF | 11.79 | 24.00 | (12.21) |
| Todd Gurley | RB | LA | TB | 11.70 | 21.00 | (9.30) |
| Golden Tate | WR | DET | GB | 11.65 | 7.20 | 4.45 |
| Marvin Jones | WR | DET | GB | 11.64 | 41.50 | (29.86) |
| Jason Witten | TE | DAL | CHI | 11.63 | 4.50 | 7.13 |
| Torrey Smith | WR | SF | SEA | 11.63 | 6.50 | 5.13 |
| Jeremy Hill | RB | CIN | DEN | 11.52 | 21.70 | (10.18) |
| Martellus Bennett | TE | NE | HOU | 11.46 | 3.60 | 7.86 |
| Travis Benjamin | WR | SD | IND | 11.44 | 11.20 | 0.24 |
| Julius Thomas | TE | JAX | BAL | 11.39 | 3.30 | 8.09 |
| Darren Sproles | RB | PHI | PIT | 11.31 | 27.70 | (16.39) |
| Theo Riddick | RB | DET | GB | 11.22 | 11.80 | (0.58) |
| Vincent Jackson | WR | TB | LA | 11.06 | 6.70 | 4.36 |
| LeGarrette Blount | RB | NE | HOU | 11.05 | 25.50 | (14.45) |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | CIN | DEN | 11.00 | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| Spencer Ware | RB | KC | NYJ | 11.00 | 8.30 | 2.70 |
| Eddie Royal | WR | CHI | DAL | 10.80 | 5.10 | 5.70 |
| Victor Cruz | WR | NYG | WAS | 10.77 | 10.00 | 0.77 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | NYJ | 9.99 | 20.90 | (10.91) |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | NYG | WAS | 9.85 | 18.30 | (8.45) |
| Charles Sims | RB | TB | LA | 9.67 | 24.40 | (14.73) |
| Kamar Aiken | WR | BAL | JAX | 9.65 | 1.50 | 8.15 |
| Justin Forsett | RB | BAL | JAX | 9.58 | 9.20 | 0.38 |
| Jordan Cameron | TE | MIA | CLE | 9.52 | 1.50 | 8.02 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | WAS | NYG | 9.29 | 17.80 | (8.51) |
| Tevin Coleman | RB | ATL | NO | 8.94 | 29.90 | (20.96) |
| Mohamed Sanu | WR | ATL | NO | 8.89 | 6.10 | 2.79 |
| Kenny Stills | WR | MIA | CLE | 8.57 | 12.60 | (4.03) |
| Tajae Sharpe | WR | TEN | OAK | 8.55 | 7.80 | 0.75 |
| Tyrell Williams | WR | SD | IND | 8.44 | 12.90 | (4.46) |
| Gary Barnidge | TE | CLE | MIA | 8.43 | 13.60 | (5.17) |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | PHI | PIT | 8.29 | 5.10 | 3.19 |
| Kenny Britt | WR | LA | TB | 8.24 | 6.80 | 1.44 |
| Charcandrick West | RB | KC | NYJ | 8.22 | 4.10 | 4.12 |
| Eli Rogers | WR | PIT | PHI | 8.20 | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| Duke Johnson | RB | CLE | MIA | 8.16 | 13.10 | (4.94) |
| Terrance West | RB | BAL | JAX | 8.09 | 6.30 | 1.79 |
| Matt Jones | RB | WAS | NYG | 8.02 | 9.90 | (1.88) |
| Dontrelle Inman | WR | SD | IND | 8.01 | 6.20 | 1.81 |
| Dennis Pitta | TE | BAL | JAX | 7.98 | 10.20 | (2.22) |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | WR | PHI | PIT | 7.96 | 6.30 | 1.66 |
| Coby Fleener | TE | NO | ATL | 7.95 | 26.90 | (18.95) |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE | MIN | CAR | 7.94 | 20.00 | (12.06) |
| Jermaine Kearse | WR | SEA | SF | 7.92 | 3.10 | 4.82 |
| Tavon Austin | WR | LA | TB | 7.83 | 21.40 | (13.57) |
| Terrance Williams | WR | DAL | CHI | 7.78 | 11.80 | (4.02) |
| Tim Hightower | RB | NO | ATL | 7.73 | 1.90 | 5.83 |
| Harry Douglas | WR | TEN | OAK | 7.71 | 4.00 | 3.71 |
| Cole Beasley | WR | DAL | CHI | 7.42 | 14.30 | (6.88) |
| Carlos Hyde | RB | SF | SEA | 7.21 | 28.50 | (21.29) |
| Charles Clay | TE | BUF | ARI | 7.19 | 0.00 | 7.19 |
| Andrew Hawkins | WR | CLE | MIA | 7.14 | 3.50 | 3.64 |
| Seth Roberts | WR | OAK | TEN | 7.09 | 10.70 | (3.61) |
| Jacob Tamme | TE | ATL | NO | 7.07 | 5.80 | 1.27 |
| Rishard Matthews | WR | TEN | OAK | 6.75 | 6.20 | 0.55 |
| Jeremy Langford | RB | CHI | DAL | 6.74 | 6.60 | 0.14 |
| Alfred Morris | RB | DAL | CHI | 6.72 | 9.10 | (2.38) |
| Robert Woods | WR | BUF | ARI | 6.70 | 11.10 | (4.40) |
| Bilal Powell | RB | NYJ | KC | 6.62 | 12.10 | (5.48) |
| Christine Michael | RB | SEA | SF | 6.61 | 28.10 | (21.49) |
| Michael Thomas | WR | NO | ATL | 6.60 | 20.10 | (13.50) |
| Larry Donnell | TE | NYG | WAS | 6.57 | 4.10 | 2.47 |
| Dwayne Allen | TE | IND | SD | 6.26 | 6.50 | (0.24) |
| Chris Thompson | RB | WAS | NYG | 6.23 | 2.60 | 3.63 |
| Will Tye | TE | NYG | WAS | 6.21 | 4.40 | 1.81 |
| John Brown | WR | ARI | BUF | 6.05 | 13.00 | (6.95) |
| Phillip Dorsett | WR | IND | SD | 5.94 | 5.70 | 0.24 |
| Jay Ajayi | RB | MIA | CLE | 5.93 | 8.80 | (2.87) |
| Brandon Coleman | WR | NO | ATL | 5.89 | 14.80 | (8.91) |
| Danny Amendola | WR | NE | HOU | 5.84 | 4.30 | 1.54 |
| Brent Celek | TE | PHI | PIT | 5.83 | 9.10 | (3.27) |
| Chris Conley | WR | KC | NYJ | 5.80 | 7.40 | (1.60) |
| Davante Adams | WR | GB | DET | 5.77 | 10.30 | (4.53) |
| Eric Ebron | TE | DET | GB | 5.73 | 11.90 | (6.17) |
| Clive Walford | TE | OAK | TEN | 5.72 | 4.70 | 1.02 |
| Travaris Cadet | RB | NO | ATL | 5.59 | 9.20 | (3.61) |
| Jalen Richard | RB | OAK | TEN | 5.57 | 5.10 | 0.47 |
| Andre Holmes | WR | OAK | TEN | 5.50 | 1.80 | 3.70 |
| Ted Ginn | WR | CAR | MIN | 5.32 | 9.70 | (4.38) |
| James White | RB | NE | HOU | 5.23 | 2.40 | 2.83 |
| Marqise Lee | WR | JAX | BAL | 5.22 | 9.40 | (4.18) |
| Josh Huff | WR | PHI | PIT | 5.09 | 6.00 | (0.91) |
| Zach Miller | TE | CHI | DAL | 5.08 | 27.80 | (22.72) |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | OAK | 5.00 | 4.50 | 0.50 |
| Kevin White | WR | CHI | DAL | 4.92 | 12.20 | (7.28) |
| Chris Hogan | WR | NE | HOU | 4.90 | 1.30 | 3.60 |
| Jesse James | TE | PIT | PHI | 4.85 | 3.00 | 1.85 |
| Sammie Coates | WR | PIT | PHI | 4.83 | 8.00 | (3.17) |
| Fozzy Whittaker | RB | CAR | MIN | 4.83 | 10.60 | (5.77) |
| Jack Doyle | TE | IND | SD | 4.80 | 12.50 | (7.70) |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | MIN | CAR | 4.79 | 7.70 | (2.91) |
| Brandon Myers | TE | TB | LA | 4.79 | 1.70 | 3.09 |
| Kenjon Barner | RB | PHI | PIT | 4.70 | 10.20 | (5.50) |
| Justin Hardy | WR | ATL | NO | 4.66 | 10.60 | (5.94) |
| Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | CAR | 4.62 | 5.90 | (1.28) |
| Jared Cook | TE | GB | DET | 4.61 | 2.50 | 2.11 |
| Josh Ferguson | RB | IND | SD | 4.50 | 6.10 | (1.60) |
| Lance Dunbar | RB | DAL | CHI | 4.45 | 6.10 | (1.65) |
| Jeremy Kerley | WR | SF | SEA | 4.41 | 4.40 | 0.01 |
| Demetrius Harris | TE | KC | NYJ | 4.37 | 3.40 | 0.97 |
| Jermaine Gresham | TE | ARI | BUF | 4.31 | 0.00 | 4.31 |
| Dion Sims | TE | MIA | CLE | 4.30 | 8.60 | (4.30) |
| Breshad Perriman | WR | BAL | JAX | 4.27 | 4.40 | (0.13) |
| Matt Asiata | RB | MIN | CAR | 4.25 | 2.90 | 1.35 |
| Robert Turbin | RB | IND | SD | 4.16 | 6.90 | (2.74) |
| Cameron Brate | TE | TB | LA | 4.04 | 21.60 | (17.56) |
| Vance McDonald | TE | SF | SEA | 3.98 | 2.40 | 1.58 |
| James Starks | RB | GB | DET | 3.87 | 1.80 | 2.07 |
| Quinton Patton | WR | SF | SEA | 3.79 | 1.80 | 1.99 |
| Deandre Washington | RB | OAK | TEN | 3.75 | 7.20 | (3.45) |
| Benjamin Cunningham | RB | LA | TB | 3.73 | 4.90 | (1.17) |
| Richard Rodgers | TE | GB | DET | 3.72 | 8.90 | (5.18) |
| Darren Fells | TE | ARI | BUF | 3.67 | 3.50 | 0.17 |
| Luke Willson | TE | SEA | SF | 3.67 | 2.90 | 0.77 |
| Corey Brown | WR | CAR | MIN | 3.65 | 9.70 | (6.05) |
| Jaelen Strong | WR | HOU | NE | 3.65 | 2.50 | 1.15 |
| Shaun Draughn | RB | SF | SEA | 3.59 | 2.20 | 1.39 |
| Brian Quick | WR | LA | TB | 3.39 | 13.30 | (9.91) |
| Alfred Blue | RB | HOU | NE | 3.26 | 1.20 | 2.06 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | DEN | 3.17 | 4.80 | (1.63) |
| Mike Gillislee | RB | BUF | ARI | 3.12 | 2.00 | 1.12 |
| Orleans Darkwa | RB | NYG | WAS | 3.06 | 13.20 | (10.14) |
| Marcedes Lewis | TE | JAX | BAL | 2.63 | 5.00 | (2.37) |
| Brandon Bolden | RB | NE | HOU | 2.39 | 0.00 | 2.39 |
| Garrett Celek | TE | SF | SEA | 2.25 | 5.50 | (3.25) |
| Rhett Ellison | TE | MIN | CAR | 1.87 | 2.80 | (0.93) |
| Ryan Griffin | TE | HOU | NE | 1.44 | 13.20 | (11.76) |
| Ed Dickson | TE | CAR | MIN | 1.28 | 3.30 | (2.02) |
| CJ Uzomah | TE | CIN | DEN | 1.18 | 5.10 | (3.92) |
| Dwayne Washington | RB | DET | GB | 1.11 | 4.50 | (3.39) |
