Week 1 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Results - How my Bayesian Inspired Lineups Fared (+$84.00)

Week 1 is in the books! And it was profitable!

Despite only being able to predict approximately 21% of the variance of Week 1 with my model, I was able to still cash at approximately a 382% profit with the insights I gained.

How exactly did I accomplish that?

I'm pretty sure this week it was just blind luck. This is because I decided to take a very conservative approach and just dip my toes in the water with my projections to start the year out. This is also especially true knowing my most profitable weeks backtesting my model existed in weeks 12-17 in past seasons.

I also am trying to get more familiar with how to best build my portfolio of lineups. I wanted to experiment with single entry, head to head, and early game only entries to get a feel for what might be best for me.

Therefore, I decided to spread my buy-ins approximately evenly across cash games and Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments. I only entered $22 in fees across seven games and averaged scoring 150.30 points at a 57.14% cash rate across all lineups. It was, however, one specific lineup that won me the most -- a 1:00 PM only lineup where I had all my best hits. I flirted with placing much higher, but had a TE that suffered from the extreme lack of a passing game.

I exclusively played on Draft Kings for every lineup, with my username of twigsta26. Listed below are my results:

So, was the algorithm any good?

I think the box plot below is pretty telling:

I had a median algorithm difference of underestimating a player's performance by 1.3 points, with the majority of my quartile data falling between a 4.9 point underestimate and a 1.3 point underestimate.

In other words, I'm getting pretty good at predicting average performances. I have a lot more work to do when it comes to predicting breakouts for GPP tourneys. I do think I underestimated how good my lineups could be for cash game matchups. This will be an angle I will try to use in weeks to come.

The Detailed List - How the Model Fared for Each Player

Many players were injured, and some didn't play. Regardless, below is the good, the bad, and the ugly. An underestimate for a player is marked in parentheses. I hope to improve on my accuracy here in the weeks to come!

MyRank	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Actual	Difference
1	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	DEN	23.8	22.16	(1.7)
2	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	WAS	22.8	35.6	12.8
3	Drew Brees	QB	NO	OAK	22.7	35.42	12.7
4	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	DET	22.5	38.5	16.0
5	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	MIA	21.8	13.92	(7.9)
6	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	TB	20.3	16.6	(3.7)
7	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	WAS	20.2	25.8	5.6
8	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	DAL	20.2	19.28	(0.9)
9	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	IND	19.9	29.1	9.2
10	Blake Bortles	QB	JAX	GB	19.7	19	(0.7)
11	Odell Beckham Jr	WR	NYG	DAL	19.5	11.3	(8.2)
12	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	BUF	19.5	13.02	(6.5)
13	Brandon Marshall	WR	NYJ	CIN	19.4	6.2	(13.2)
14	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	JAX	19.1	23.56	4.5
15	Arian Foster	RB	MIA	SEA	18.9	13	(5.9)
16	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	NYJ	CIN	18.8	16.06	(2.8)
17	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	KC	18.8	14.62	(4.2)
18	Kirk Cousins	QB	WAS	PIT	18.7	14.96	(3.8)
19	Ryan Tannehill	QB	MIA	SEA	18.5	15.14	(3.4)
20	Jameis Winston	QB	TB	ATL	18.5	26.54	8.1
21	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	JAX	17.8	15.2	(2.6)
22	Derek Carr	QB	OAK	NO	17.6	25.36	7.8
23	Tyrod Taylor	QB	BUF	BAL	17.3	5.54	(11.8)
24	Sam Bradford	QB	MIN	TEN	17.1	0	(17.1)
25	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	TB	17.0	27.36	10.4
26	Carson Palmer	QB	ARI	NE	16.7	18.94	2.3
27	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	CAR	16.3	8.8	(7.5)
28	Jay Cutler	QB	CHI	HOU	16.3	12.84	(3.4)
29	Alex Smith	QB	KC	SD	16.1	32.02	16.0
30	Sammy Watkins	WR	BUF	BAL	16.0	8.3	(7.7)
31	Matt Forte	RB	NYJ	CIN	16.0	20.5	4.5
32	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN	TEN	15.4	3.1	(12.3)
33	Jamaal Charles	RB	KC	SD	15.4	0	(15.4)
34	Mark Sanchez	QB	DAL	NYG	15.1	0	(15.1)
35	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	CHI	15.1	16.4	1.3
36	Jordan Matthews	WR	PHI	CLE	15.0	27.5	12.5
37	Andy Dalton	QB	CIN	NYJ	15.0	21.34	6.4
38	Rashad Jennings	RB	NYG	DAL	14.9	8.8	(6.1)
39	Robert Griffin III	QB	CLE	PHI	14.8	10.3	(4.5)
40	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN	CAR	14.4	9.9	(4.5)
41	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI	CLE	14.4	11.8	(2.6)
42	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA	MIA	14.2	24.2	10.0
43	Mike Evans	WR	TB	ATL	14.0	20.9	6.9
44	AJ Green	WR	CIN	NYJ	14.0	39	25.0
45	Marcus Mariota	QB	TEN	MIN	13.7	18.74	5.0
46	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL	TB	13.7	8	(5.7)
47	Golden Tate	WR	DET	IND	13.6	11.3	(2.3)
48	Brandin Cooks	WR	NO	OAK	13.4	36.4	23.0
49	Eric Decker	WR	NYJ	CIN	13.3	11.7	(1.6)
50	Keenan Allen	WR	SD	KC	13.3	12.3	(1.0)
51	Jeremy Maclin	WR	KC	SD	13.3	17.2	3.9
52	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	OAK	13.2	10.7	(2.5)
53	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	JAX	13.2	12.8	(0.4)
54	Jordan Reed	TE	WAS	PIT	13.1	13.4	0.3
55	Todd Gurley	RB	LA	SF	13.0	5.2	(7.8)
56	Delanie Walker	TE	TEN	MIN	12.8	7.2	(5.6)
57	LeSean McCoy	RB	BUF	BAL	12.7	17	4.3
58	Lamar Miller	RB	HOU	CHI	12.7	18.7	6.0
59	David Johnson	RB	ARI	NE	12.6	23.2	10.6
60	Tim Hightower	RB	NO	OAK	12.5	2	(10.5)
61	TY Hilton	WR	IND	DET	12.5	13.9	1.4
62	Case Keenum	QB	LA	SF	12.5	4.2	(8.3)
63	Allen Robinson	WR	JAX	GB	12.5	13.2	0.7
64	Blaine Gabbert	QB	SF	LA	12.5	14.5	2.0
65	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA	SEA	12.3	12.9	0.6
66	Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE	ARI	12.3	0	(12.3)
67	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	NYG	12.1	1.8	(10.3)
68	Steve Smith	WR	BAL	BUF	12.1	6.9	(5.2)
69	Amari Cooper	WR	OAK	NO	12.1	24.7	12.6
70	Brock Osweiler	QB	HOU	CHI	12.0	17.64	5.6
71	Alshon Jeffery	WR	CHI	HOU	12.0	17.5	5.5
72	Allen Hurns	WR	JAX	GB	11.8	11.5	(0.3)
73	Eddie Lacy	RB	GB	JAX	11.8	8.8	(3.0)
74	Frank Gore	RB	IND	DET	11.7	11.8	0.1
75	Danny Woodhead	RB	SD	KC	11.6	23	11.4
76	Anquan Boldin	WR	DET	IND	11.5	6.5	(5.0)
77	Michael Crabtree	WR	OAK	NO	11.5	17.7	6.2
78	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	ARI	11.4	15.2	3.8
79	Darren McFadden	RB	DAL	NYG	11.3	0	(11.3)
80	Terrance Williams	WR	DAL	NYG	11.2	6.4	(4.8)
81	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	NE	11.2	28.1	16.9
82	Gary Barnidge	TE	CLE	PHI	11.2	0	(11.2)
83	Alfred Morris	RB	DAL	NYG	11.2	3.5	(7.7)
84	DeMarco Murray	RB	TEN	MIN	11.0	23.7	12.7
85	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	NYG	11.0	15.6	4.6
86	Michael Floyd	WR	ARI	NE	11.0	9.1	(1.9)
87	DeAngelo Williams	RB	PIT	WAS	10.9	38.1	27.2
88	Latavius Murray	RB	OAK	NO	10.9	14.2	3.3
89	Isaiah Crowell	RB	CLE	PHI	10.8	15.8	5.0
90	Jimmy Graham	TE	SEA	MIA	10.8	2.1	(8.7)
91	Doug Martin	RB	TB	ATL	10.7	14.6	3.9
92	Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	PIT	10.6	11.1	0.5
93	DeSean Jackson	WR	WAS	PIT	10.6	19.2	8.6
94	Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	DEN	10.6	14.3	3.7
95	John Brown	WR	ARI	NE	10.5	1.8	(8.7)
96	Kamar Aiken	WR	BAL	BUF	10.5	3.4	(7.1)
97	Thomas Rawls	RB	SEA	MIA	10.4	8.8	(1.6)
98	Antonio Gates	TE	SD	KC	10.3	5	(5.3)
99	Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	PHI	CLE	10.3	3.4	(6.9)
100	TJ Yeldon	RB	JAX	GB	10.3	16.9	6.6
101	Markus Wheaton	WR	PIT	WAS	10.1	0	(10.1)
102	Tavon Austin	WR	LA	SF	10.1	5.5	(4.6)
103	Cecil Shorts	WR	HOU	CHI	10.0	0	(10.0)
104	Jermaine Kearse	WR	SEA	MIA	9.9	10.7	0.8
105	Jeremy Hill	RB	CIN	NYJ	9.9	9.1	(0.8)
106	Charles Sims	RB	TB	ATL	9.9	13.1	3.2
107	Bilal Powell	RB	NYJ	CIN	9.8	6.8	(3.0)
108	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	MIA	9.8	4.7	(5.1)
109	Cole Beasley	WR	DAL	NYG	9.8	14.5	4.7
110	Darren Sproles	RB	PHI	CLE	9.7	5.6	(4.1)
111	Robert Woods	WR	BUF	BAL	9.6	6	(3.6)
112	Willie Snead	WR	NO	OAK	9.6	35.2	25.6
113	Andrew Hawkins	WR	CLE	PHI	9.5	0	(9.5)
114	Ronnie Hillman	RB	DEN	CAR	9.5	0	(9.5)
115	Ted Ginn	WR	CAR	DEN	9.4	3.5	(5.9)
116	Shane Vereen	RB	NYG	DAL	9.4	9.1	(0.3)
117	Kenny Britt	WR	LA	SF	9.4	10.7	1.3
118	Giovani Bernard	RB	CIN	NYJ	9.3	5	(4.3)
119	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	CAR	DEN	9.3	21.1	11.8
120	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE	PHI	9.3	8	(1.3)
121	Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	ATL	9.2	3.8	(5.4)
122	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	IND	9.1	12.5	3.4
123	Javorius Allen	RB	BAL	BUF	9.0	0	(9.0)
124	Jonathan Stewart	RB	CAR	DEN	8.9	6.4	(2.5)
125	Torrey Smith	WR	SF	LA	8.8	3.3	(5.5)
126	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	TEN	8.7	20.2	11.5
127	Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	DAL	8.6	13.4	4.8
128	Brandon LaFell	WR	CIN	NYJ	8.6	13.1	4.5
129	Julius Thomas	TE	JAX	GB	8.6	17.4	8.8
130	Martellus Bennett	TE	NE	ARI	8.5	4.4	(4.1)
131	Andre Johnson	WR	TEN	MIN	8.5	6	(2.5)
132	Mike Wallace	WR	BAL	BUF	8.4	19.2	10.8
133	Charcandrick West	RB	KC	SD	8.4	8.3	(0.1)
134	James Starks	RB	GB	JAX	8.3	2.3	(6.0)
135	Travis Benjamin	WR	SD	KC	8.3	10.2	1.9
136	Theo Riddick	RB	DET	IND	8.2	27.8	19.6
137	Devante Parker	WR	MIA	SEA	8.2	0	(8.2)
138	Seth Roberts	WR	OAK	NO	8.1	9.9	1.8
139	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	PIT	8.1	11.8	3.7
140	Coby Fleener	TE	NO	OAK	8.1	1.6	(6.5)
141	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	SD	8.0	13.4	5.4
142	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	TEN	8.0	10.5	2.5
143	CJ Anderson	RB	DEN	CAR	8.0	29.9	21.9
144	Eric Ebron	TE	DET	IND	8.0	15.6	7.6
145	Davante Adams	WR	GB	JAX	7.9	14	6.1
146	Brandon Coleman	WR	NO	OAK	7.8	0	(7.8)
147	Dontrelle Inman	WR	SD	KC	7.8	1.6	(6.2)
148	Chris Ivory	RB	JAX	GB	7.8	0	(7.8)
149	Eddie Royal	WR	CHI	HOU	7.6	15.7	8.1
150	Rishard Matthews	WR	TEN	MIN	7.6	5.6	(2.0)
151	Chris Johnson	RB	ARI	NE	7.5	0.2	(7.3)
152	Alfred Blue	RB	HOU	CHI	7.5	0.4	(7.1)
153	Mohamed Sanu	WR	ATL	TB	7.4	21	13.6
154	Richard Rodgers	TE	GB	JAX	7.3	3.2	(4.1)
155	Brice Butler	WR	DAL	NYG	7.3	2.6	(4.7)
156	Devin Funchess	WR	CAR	DEN	7.3	1.9	(5.4)
157	Charles Clay	TE	BUF	BAL	7.3	6	(1.3)
158	Will Tye	TE	NYG	DAL	7.1	4.6	(2.5)
159	Ameer Abdullah	RB	DET	IND	7.0	23	16.0
160	Andre Holmes	WR	OAK	NO	7.0	0	(7.0)
161	Andre Ellington	RB	ARI	NE	6.9	2.8	(4.1)
162	Nelson Agholor	WR	PHI	CLE	6.9	15.7	8.8
163	Jerick McKinnon	RB	MIN	TEN	6.8	1.9	(4.9)
164	Ryan Mathews	RB	PHI	CLE	6.8	13.7	6.9
165	Spencer Ware	RB	KC	SD	6.8	35.9	29.1
166	Marquess Wilson	WR	CHI	HOU	6.8	0	(6.8)
167	Shaun Hill	QB	MIN	TEN	6.8	10.24	3.4
168	Jared Cook	TE	GB	JAX	6.7	1.7	(5.0)
169	Lance Kendricks	TE	LA	SF	6.7	3.5	(3.2)
170	Mychal Rivera	TE	OAK	NO	6.7	0	(6.7)
171	James White	RB	NE	ARI	6.6	9.4	2.8
172	Melvin Gordon	RB	SD	KC	6.6	17.7	11.1
173	Zach Miller	TE	CHI	HOU	6.5	4.4	(2.1)
174	JJ Nelson	WR	ARI	NE	6.4	2.1	(4.3)
175	Larry Donnell	TE	NYG	DAL	6.4	8.5	2.1
176	Matt Jones	RB	WAS	PIT	6.4	4.3	(2.1)
177	Donte Moncrief	WR	IND	DET	6.3	18.4	12.1
178	Albert Wilson	WR	KC	SD	6.3	3.1	(3.2)
179	Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	MIN	6.2	0	(6.2)
180	Danny Amendola	WR	NE	ARI	6.2	7.8	1.6
181	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE	TB	ATL	6.2	10	3.8
182	CJ Spiller	RB	NO	OAK	6.1	0	(6.1)
183	Jaelen Strong	WR	HOU	CHI	6.0	0	(6.0)
184	Benjamin Cunningham	RB	LA	SF	6.0	1.8	(4.2)
185	Corey Brown	WR	CAR	DEN	6.0	2.1	(3.9)
186	Cameron Artis-Payne	RB	CAR	DEN	5.9	0	(5.9)
187	Justin Hardy	WR	ATL	TB	5.9	1	(4.9)
188	Crockett Gillmore	TE	BAL	BUF	5.8	1.5	(4.3)
189	Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	BUF	5.7	6.9	1.2
190	Marqise Lee	WR	JAX	GB	5.6	4.2	(1.4)
191	Shaun Draughn	RB	SF	LA	5.5	10.6	5.1
192	Jarius Wright	WR	MIN	TEN	5.4	0	(5.4)
193	Kenny Stills	WR	MIA	SEA	5.3	2.6	(2.7)
194	Tevin Coleman	RB	ATL	TB	5.3	16.7	11.4
195	Dwayne Allen	TE	IND	DET	5.2	17.3	12.1
196	Carlos Hyde	RB	SF	LA	5.2	23.3	18.1
197	Terrance West	RB	BAL	BUF	5.2	5.8	0.6
198	Paul Richardson	WR	SEA	MIA	5.2	2.1	(3.1)
199	Maxx Williams	TE	BAL	BUF	5.2	0	(5.2)
200	Brent Celek	TE	PHI	CLE	5.2	2.1	(3.1)
201	Vance McDonald	TE	SF	LA	5.1	9.4	4.3
202	Jacob Tamme	TE	ATL	TB	5.1	11.1	6.0
203	Quinton Patton	WR	SF	LA	5.0	11	6.0
204	Clive Walford	TE	OAK	NO	4.9	5.5	0.6
205	Chris Thompson	RB	WAS	PIT	4.9	11.9	7.0
206	Jeremy Langford	RB	CHI	HOU	4.8	14.3	9.5
207	Quincy Enunwa	WR	NYJ	CIN	4.8	19.3	14.5
208	Phillip Dorsett	WR	IND	DET	4.8	13.4	8.6
209	Tyler Kroft	TE	CIN	NYJ	4.7	0	(4.7)
210	LeGarrette Blount	RB	NE	ARI	4.7	12	7.3
211	Darren Fells	TE	ARI	NE	4.6	0	(4.6)
212	Jeremy Kerley	WR	SF	LA	4.6	13.1	8.5
213	Chris Hogan	WR	NE	ARI	4.6	15	10.4
214	Dwayne Harris	WR	NYG	DAL	4.5	0	(4.5)
215	Chris Conley	WR	KC	SD	4.5	8.3	3.8
216	Luke Willson	TE	SEA	MIA	4.4	4.6	0.2
217	Jordan Cameron	TE	MIA	SEA	4.4	2.6	(1.8)
218	TJ Jones	WR	DET	IND	4.3	0	(4.3)
219	Christine Michael	RB	SEA	MIA	4.1	9.1	5.0
220	Rashad Greene	WR	JAX	GB	4.0	1.9	(2.1)
221	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	DET	3.9	18.5	14.6
222	Charles Johnson	WR	MIN	TEN	3.8	1.5	(2.3)
223	Garrett Celek	TE	SF	LA	3.8	2.5	(1.3)
224	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	NE	ARI	3.8	16.06	12.2
225	Ryan Griffin	TE	HOU	CHI	3.8	3.7	(0.1)
226	Jace Amaro	TE	TEN	MIN	3.7	0	(3.7)
227	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	ATL	3.6	6	2.4
228	Josh Hill	TE	NO	OAK	3.5	0	(3.5)
229	Dion Sims	TE	MIA	SEA	3.4	0	(3.4)
230	Robert Turbin	RB	IND	DET	3.2	3.9	0.7
231	Jay Ajayi	RB	MIA	SEA	3.0	0	(3.0)
232	Jesse James	TE	PIT	WAS	2.5	8.1	5.6
233	Virgil Green	TE	DEN	CAR	2.3	6.8	4.5
234	Ryan Hewitt	TE	CIN	NYJ	2.2	0	(2.2)
235	Bennie Fowler	WR	DEN	CAR	2.1	0	(2.1)

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