Week 2 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Results - My Bayesian Inspired Lineups Took a Hit This Week (-$50.00)
Week 2 - Cue the loser horn!
Week 2 was a bit of a bust for me. My r^2 value went down a measly 1%, but I lost more this week, going down about $50. The results are disappointing, but, there were still many insights to gain!
Why did I stink so bad this week?
First, I tried a different strategy this week by playing a variety of lineups split heavier towards cash games. I attempted a two-thirds split over cash games and a one-third over GPP tournaments. For my cash games, I skewed more towards my my algorithm optimizations. My GPP games were based on extreme scenarios that skewed projections on many players in projected high scoring games to their 99th percentile potential.
Despite my best efforts to craft as many diverse lineups as possible across cash games and GPP tournaments, I can attribute this week's losses to a heavy reliance on older players and underwhelming performances compared to my predictions. Specifically, Antonio Brown, Drew Brees, Danny Woodhead, and Arian Foster were awful choices for me this week.
As always, I exclusively played on Draft Kings for every lineup, with my username of twigsta26. Listed below are my highlights:
My Best Lineup
I had this one in 12% of my lineups. I wish i had it in more! Eli was a very high risk play by my algorithm, but I liked the stack with Sterling Shepard, who I still felt was undervalued. Having Benjamin and Olsen certainly helped as well.
My Worst Lineup
This was my dreaded algorithm optimization lineup. Everyone here I needed to do well underperformed significantly, or got injured in the first quarter of their games. UGH!
Algorithm Results
I had a median algorithm difference of underestimating a player's performance by 0.9 points, with the majority of my quartile data falling between a 0.9 point underestimate and a 2.5 point overestimate. I provided database examples of players that described each range of my projections.
This week, the algorithm tended to overestimate data. This no doubt led to my poor lineup constructions as I picked players that significantly unperformed their projections. In future weeks, I need to try to squish down these outliers some more by taking a much closer look at the relationship between the most recent information on a player and how that relates with their historical projection curves for each week.
I also need to realize that for many players, I have a very small sample set that will only make my algorithm better in future weeks when I acquire more significant information. I need to cool it a bit with my risk overall while the season is young!
The Detailed List - How the Model Fared for Each Player
Note in the difference category, a negative number is in parentheses and represents an underestimate, a positive number represents an overestimate.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | QB | NO | NYG | 23.4 | 14.52 | 8.9 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | PIT | CIN | 22.6 | 7.9 | 14.7 |
| Cam Newton | QB | CAR | SF | 22.1 | 34.82 | (12.7) |
| Andrew Luck | QB | IND | DEN | 22.0 | 12.08 | 9.9 |
| Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | LA | 20.6 | 11.56 | 9.0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | CIN | 20.3 | 21.76 | (1.5) |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | TEN | 19.9 | 16.5 | 3.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | MIN | 19.5 | 19.42 | 0.1 |
| Julio Jones | WR | ATL | OAK | 19.4 | 24.6 | (5.2) |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | DAL | 19.3 | 22.56 | (3.2) |
| Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | OAK | 19.0 | 31.84 | (12.8) |
| Matt Forte | RB | NYJ | BUF | 18.7 | 33.9 | (15.2) |
| Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | CLE | 18.6 | 21.18 | (2.6) |
| Alex Smith | QB | KC | HOU | 18.5 | 5.64 | 12.9 |
| Derek Carr | QB | OAK | ATL | 18.3 | 24.96 | (6.6) |
| Ryan Tannehill | QB | MIA | NE | 18.2 | 28.06 | (9.9) |
| Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | PIT | 18.0 | 22.34 | (4.3) |
| Philip Rivers | QB | SD | JAX | 18.0 | 24.8 | (6.8) |
| Jameis Winston | QB | TB | ARI | 18.0 | 9.62 | 8.4 |
| Sam Bradford | QB | PHI | GB | 18.0 | 19.14 | (1.2) |
| Eli Manning | QB | NYG | NO | 17.5 | 16.32 | 1.2 |
| Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | SD | 17.2 | 24.56 | (7.3) |
| Jordan Matthews | WR | PHI | CHI | 17.0 | 13.1 | 3.9 |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | NYJ | BUF | 17.0 | 19.1 | (2.1) |
| DeAngelo Williams | RB | PIT | CIN | 16.9 | 23.2 | (6.3) |
| Arian Foster | RB | MIA | NE | 16.7 | 0.9 | 15.8 |
| Jordy Nelson | WR | GB | MIN | 16.4 | 18.3 | (1.9) |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | NO | NYG | 16.3 | 13.8 | 2.5 |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | TEN | DET | 16.3 | 17.62 | (1.3) |
| Carson Palmer | QB | ARI | TB | 16.3 | 27.32 | (11.1) |
| AJ Green | WR | CIN | PIT | 16.2 | 5.8 | 10.4 |
| Jay Cutler | QB | CHI | PHI | 16.0 | 4.28 | 11.7 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | WR | NYG | NO | 15.9 | 16.6 | (0.7) |
| Josh McCown | QB | CLE | BAL | 15.5 | 16.4 | (0.9) |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | NYJ | BUF | 15.2 | 24.06 | (8.9) |
| DeMarco Murray | RB | TEN | DET | 15.2 | 21.5 | (6.3) |
| LeSean McCoy | RB | BUF | NYJ | 15.0 | 13 | 2.0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | WR | DEN | IND | 15.0 | 16 | (1.0) |
| Blaine Gabbert | QB | SF | CAR | 14.9 | 22.72 | (7.8) |
| Doug Baldwin | WR | SEA | LA | 14.8 | 5 | 9.8 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU | KC | 14.8 | 27.3 | (12.5) |
| Danny Woodhead | RB | SD | JAX | 14.7 | 4.1 | 10.6 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | DEN | IND | 14.4 | 6.9 | 7.5 |
| Jordan Reed | TE | WAS | DAL | 14.3 | 12 | 2.3 |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | ARI | 14.2 | 19 | (4.8) |
| Adrian Peterson | RB | MIN | GB | 14.2 | 4.6 | 9.6 |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | WAS | DAL | 14.1 | 7 | 7.1 |
| David Johnson | RB | ARI | TB | 14.1 | 17.3 | (3.2) |
| Sammy Watkins | WR | BUF | NYJ | 14.0 | 4 | 10.0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | WR | KC | HOU | 14.0 | 12.8 | 1.2 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | CHI | PHI | 13.8 | 14.6 | (0.8) |
| Amari Cooper | WR | OAK | ATL | 13.6 | 12.1 | 1.5 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | TB | 13.6 | 20.1 | (6.5) |
| Randall Cobb | WR | GB | MIN | 13.5 | 9.3 | 4.2 |
| Case Keenum | QB | LA | SEA | 13.5 | 10.06 | 3.4 |
| Eddie Lacy | RB | GB | MIN | 13.4 | 5 | 8.4 |
| Todd Gurley | RB | LA | SEA | 12.9 | 8 | 4.9 |
| Pierre Garcon | WR | WAS | DAL | 12.7 | 4.5 | 8.2 |
| Dez Bryant | WR | DAL | WAS | 12.5 | 20.2 | (7.7) |
| Eric Decker | WR | NYJ | BUF | 12.5 | 27.6 | (15.1) |
| Steve Smith | WR | BAL | CLE | 12.5 | 9.4 | 3.1 |
| Michael Crabtree | WR | OAK | ATL | 12.3 | 13.1 | (0.8) |
| Tyrod Taylor | QB | BUF | NYJ | 12.2 | 25.38 | (13.1) |
| Brock Osweiler | QB | HOU | KC | 12.2 | 12.42 | (0.2) |
| Jason Witten | TE | DAL | WAS | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.8 |
| Doug Martin | RB | TB | ARI | 11.9 | 2.3 | 9.6 |
| Devonta Freeman | RB | ATL | OAK | 11.9 | 9.3 | 2.6 |
| Lamar Miller | RB | HOU | KC | 11.6 | 11.7 | (0.1) |
| Terrelle Pryor | WR | CLE | BAL | 11.3 | 6.2 | 5.1 |
| Allen Robinson | WR | JAX | SD | 11.2 | 8.4 | 2.8 |
| Latavius Murray | RB | OAK | ATL | 11.2 | 22.1 | (10.9) |
| Ryan Mathews | RB | PHI | CHI | 11.0 | 16.5 | (5.5) |
| Jimmy Graham | TE | SEA | LA | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.7 |
| Frank Gore | RB | IND | DEN | 10.6 | 15.3 | (4.7) |
| Tavon Austin | WR | LA | SEA | 10.6 | 10.6 | (0.0) |
| Julian Edelman | WR | NE | MIA | 10.4 | 14.6 | (4.2) |
| Mark Ingram | RB | NO | NYG | 10.4 | 8.7 | 1.7 |
| Thomas Rawls | RB | SEA | LA | 10.4 | 3.8 | 6.6 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | MIA | NE | 10.4 | 25.7 | (15.3) |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | GB | 10.4 | 36.2 | (25.8) |
| Willie Snead | WR | NO | NYG | 10.4 | 16.4 | (6.0) |
| Gary Barnidge | TE | CLE | BAL | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.4 |
| TY Hilton | WR | IND | DEN | 10.0 | 8.1 | 1.9 |
| Jermaine Kearse | WR | SEA | LA | 9.9 | 3.1 | 6.8 |
| Golden Tate | WR | DET | TEN | 9.9 | 3.3 | 6.6 |
| Greg Olsen | TE | CAR | SF | 9.8 | 26.2 | (16.4) |
| Rashad Jennings | RB | NYG | NO | 9.8 | 6 | 3.8 |
| Kenny Britt | WR | LA | SEA | 9.8 | 15.4 | (5.6) |
| Isaiah Crowell | RB | CLE | BAL | 9.7 | 24.8 | (15.1) |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | WAS | DAL | 9.6 | 15.9 | (6.3) |
| Darren Sproles | RB | PHI | CHI | 9.6 | 6.8 | 2.8 |
| Anquan Boldin | WR | DET | TEN | 9.5 | 14.8 | (5.3) |
| Cole Beasley | WR | DAL | WAS | 9.5 | 12.5 | (3.0) |
| Mike Wallace | WR | BAL | CLE | 9.2 | 20.1 | (10.9) |
| Jeremy Hill | RB | CIN | PIT | 9.2 | 8.9 | 0.3 |
| CJ Anderson | RB | DEN | IND | 9.1 | 18.3 | (9.2) |
| TJ Yeldon | RB | JAX | SD | 9.0 | 11.8 | (2.8) |
| Davante Adams | WR | GB | MIN | 9.0 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE | MIN | GB | 9.0 | 12.1 | (3.1) |
| Carlos Hyde | RB | SF | CAR | 8.9 | 7.2 | 1.7 |
| Vincent Jackson | WR | TB | ARI | 8.8 | 8.4 | 0.4 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | WR | CAR | SF | 8.8 | 32.8 | (24.0) |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | LA | 8.8 | 13.9 | (5.1) |
| Alfred Morris | RB | DAL | WAS | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.0 |
| Torrey Smith | WR | SF | CAR | 8.7 | 14.5 | (5.8) |
| Delanie Walker | TE | TEN | DET | 8.6 | 20.3 | (11.7) |
| Allen Hurns | WR | JAX | SD | 8.6 | 11.4 | (2.8) |
| Michael Floyd | WR | ARI | TB | 8.6 | 8.8 | (0.2) |
| Shane Vereen | RB | NYG | NO | 8.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Seth Roberts | WR | OAK | ATL | 8.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 |
| Justin Forsett | RB | BAL | CLE | 8.6 | 7.6 | 1.0 |
| Duke Johnson | RB | CLE | BAL | 8.4 | 9.6 | (1.2) |
| Andrew Hawkins | WR | CLE | BAL | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | CIN | PIT | 8.3 | 6.9 | 1.4 |
| Bilal Powell | RB | NYJ | BUF | 8.2 | 1.3 | 6.9 |
| Antonio Gates | TE | SD | JAX | 8.1 | 10.5 | (2.4) |
| Spencer Ware | RB | KC | HOU | 8.1 | 11.5 | (3.4) |
| Charles Sims | RB | TB | ARI | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 |
| Tim Hightower | RB | NO | NYG | 7.9 | 0.9 | 7.0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | WR | ATL | OAK | 7.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 |
| Giovani Bernard | RB | CIN | PIT | 7.8 | 28.7 | (20.9) |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | HOU | 7.7 | 8.4 | (0.7) |
| Victor Cruz | WR | NYG | NO | 7.6 | 12.1 | (4.5) |
| Robert Woods | WR | BUF | NYJ | 7.6 | 2 | 5.6 |
| Donte Moncrief | WR | IND | DEN | 7.6 | 1.9 | 5.7 |
| Jonathan Stewart | RB | CAR | SF | 7.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| Theo Riddick | RB | DET | TEN | 7.5 | 10.5 | (3.0) |
| Cecil Shorts | WR | HOU | ARI | 7.5 | 2.2 | 5.3 |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | SD | JAX | 7.4 | 24 | (16.6) |
| Julius Thomas | TE | JAX | SD | 7.4 | 11.1 | (3.7) |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | PHI | CHI | 7.4 | 8.2 | (0.8) |
| Marvin Jones | WR | DET | TEN | 7.3 | 22.8 | (15.5) |
| Charles Clay | TE | BUF | NYJ | 7.3 | 7.7 | (0.4) |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | MIN | GB | 7.2 | 1.1 | 6.1 |
| Andre Johnson | WR | TEN | DET | 7.2 | 7.9 | (0.7) |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | WR | PHI | CHI | 7.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Travis Benjamin | WR | SD | JAX | 7.1 | 32.4 | (25.3) |
| Terrance West | RB | BAL | CLE | 7.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 |
| Chris Thompson | RB | WAS | DAL | 7.0 | 8.8 | (1.8) |
| Christine Michael | RB | SEA | LA | 6.9 | 10.6 | (3.7) |
| Matt Jones | RB | WAS | DAL | 6.8 | 13.5 | (6.7) |
| Coby Fleener | TE | NO | NYG | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 |
| Jared Cook | TE | GB | MIN | 6.6 | 7.1 | (0.5) |
| Ameer Abdullah | RB | DET | TEN | 6.5 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| Lance Dunbar | RB | DAL | WAS | 6.5 | 5.2 | 1.3 |
| Ted Ginn | WR | CAR | SF | 6.5 | 6.6 | (0.1) |
| Lance Kendricks | TE | LA | SEA | 6.4 | 10.1 | (3.7) |
| Charcandrick West | RB | KC | HOU | 6.4 | 7.3 | (0.9) |
| Brandon Coleman | WR | NO | NYG | 6.4 | 3.5 | 2.9 |
| Dennis Pitta | TE | BAL | CLE | 6.4 | 22.2 | (15.8) |
| James Starks | RB | GB | MIN | 6.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| Eddie Royal | WR | CHI | PHI | 6.3 | 15.2 | (8.9) |
| Richard Rodgers | TE | GB | MIN | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 |
| Vernon Davis | TE | WAS | DAL | 6.1 | 10.1 | (4.0) |
| Travaris Cadet | RB | NO | NYG | 6.1 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| Tevin Coleman | RB | ATL | OAK | 6.1 | 15.1 | (9.0) |
| Jeremy Langford | RB | CHI | PHI | 6.1 | 9.4 | (3.3) |
| Eric Ebron | TE | DET | TEN | 6.0 | 9.3 | (3.3) |
| Devante Parker | WR | MIA | NE | 6.0 | 21.6 | (15.6) |
| Dontrelle Inman | WR | SD | JAX | 5.9 | 1.7 | 4.2 |
| Shaun Draughn | RB | SF | CAR | 5.8 | 2.1 | 3.7 |
| Paul Richardson | WR | SEA | LA | 5.7 | 6.5 | (0.8) |
| John Brown | WR | ARI | TB | 5.7 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Luke Willson | TE | SEA | LA | 5.6 | 1.6 | 4.0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | WR | NYJ | BUF | 5.6 | 15.2 | (9.6) |
| Brian Quick | WR | LA | SEA | 5.5 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| Chris Johnson | RB | ARI | TB | 5.4 | 11.4 | (6.0) |
| Clive Walford | TE | OAK | ATL | 5.4 | 17 | (11.6) |
| Jordan Cameron | TE | MIA | NE | 5.4 | 15.9 | (10.5) |
| Benjamin Cunningham | RB | LA | SEA | 5.4 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | TB | ARI | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| Jeremy Kerley | WR | SF | CAR | 5.1 | 5.9 | (0.8) |
| Crockett Gillmore | TE | BAL | CLE | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| Martellus Bennett | TE | NE | MIA | 5.0 | 25.4 | (20.4) |
| Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | GB | 5.0 | 8.1 | (3.1) |
| Zach Miller | TE | CHI | PHI | 5.0 | 7.3 | (2.3) |
| Kenny Stills | WR | MIA | NE | 4.9 | 11.9 | (7.0) |
| Charles Johnson | WR | MIN | GB | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | NE | MIA | 4.8 | 21.36 | (16.5) |
| James White | RB | NE | MIA | 4.8 | 4.9 | (0.1) |
| Alfred Blue | RB | HOU | KC | 4.8 | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| Devin Funchess | WR | CAR | SF | 4.7 | 9.9 | (5.2) |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | PIT | CIN | 4.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 |
| Quinton Patton | WR | SF | CAR | 4.6 | 5.5 | (0.9) |
| Dwayne Allen | TE | IND | DEN | 4.6 | 4.5 | 0.1 |
| Jacob Tamme | TE | ATL | OAK | 4.6 | 18.5 | (13.9) |
| Phillip Dorsett | WR | IND | DEN | 4.5 | 4 | 0.5 |
| Adam Humphries | WR | TB | ARI | 4.3 | 12.7 | (8.4) |
| LeGarrette Blount | RB | NE | MIA | 4.3 | 21.3 | (17.0) |
| Mike Gillislee | RB | BUF | NYJ | 4.1 | 8.8 | (4.7) |
| Will Tye | TE | NYG | NO | 4.0 | 3 | 1.0 |
| Albert Wilson | WR | KC | HOU | 4.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| Vance McDonald | TE | SF | CAR | 4.0 | 14.5 | (10.5) |
| Andre Holmes | WR | OAK | ATL | 3.9 | 7.6 | (3.7) |
| Denard Robinson | RB | JAX | SD | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Andre Ellington | RB | ARI | TB | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Rishard Matthews | WR | TEN | DET | 3.8 | 8 | (4.2) |
| Marqise Lee | WR | JAX | SD | 3.8 | 12.5 | (8.7) |
| Justin Hardy | WR | ATL | OAK | 3.7 | 7.8 | (4.1) |
| Corey Brown | WR | CAR | SF | 3.6 | 4.5 | (0.9) |
| Danny Amendola | WR | NE | MIA | 3.5 | 20 | (16.5) |
| Jesse James | TE | PIT | CIN | 3.4 | 11.9 | (8.5) |
| Zach Miller | TE | SEA | PHI | 3.3 | 7.3 | (4.0) |
| Garrett Celek | TE | SF | CAR | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Chris Conley | WR | KC | HOU | 3.2 | 3.5 | (0.3) |
| Larry Donnell | TE | NYG | NO | 3.2 | 6.4 | (3.2) |
| Ryan Griffin | TE | HOU | KC | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Josh Huff | WR | PHI | CHI | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Darren Fells | TE | ARI | TB | 2.9 | 7.1 | (4.2) |
| Jack Doyle | TE | IND | DEN | 2.7 | 7.7 | (5.0) |
| Greg Salas | WR | BUF | NYJ | 2.7 | 18.9 | (16.2) |
| Chris Hogan | WR | NE | MIA | 2.7 | 9.9 | (7.2) |
| Cameron Brate | TE | TB | ARI | 2.6 | 4.6 | (2.0) |
| Tyler Kroft | TE | CIN | PIT | 2.5 | 6.5 | (4.0) |
| Anthony Fasano | TE | TEN | DET | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | RB | CAR | SF | 2.1 | 18.1 | (16.0) |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | RB | PIT | CIN | 2.1 | 2.3 | (0.2) |
| Rashad Greene | WR | JAX | SD | 1.6 | 1.7 | (0.1) |
| James Wright | WR | CIN | PIT | 1.5 | 2 | (0.5) |
| Jordan Norwood | WR | DEN | IND | 1.5 | 5.4 | (3.9) |
| Marcedes Lewis | TE | JAX | SD | 1.4 | 9.7 | (8.3) |
| Jay Ajayi | RB | MIA | NE | 1.4 | 7.5 | (6.1) |
| Robert Turbin | RB | IND | DEN | 1.3 | 7 | (5.7) |
| David Johnson | TE | SD | TB | 0.9 | 17.3 | (16.4) |
| Ka'Deem Carey | RB | CHI | PHI | 0.8 | 1.6 | (0.8) |
| Jaron Brown | WR | ARI | TB | 0.8 | 15.8 | (15.0) |
| Niles Paul | TE | WAS | DAL | 0.8 | 2.6 | (1.8) |
| Dion Sims | TE | MIA | NE | 0.6 | 3.1 | (2.5) |
| Cody Latimer | WR | DEN | IND | 0.5 | 3.2 | (2.7) |
| Virgil Green | TE | DEN | IND | 0.4 | 7.6 | (7.2) |
| Alex Smith | TE | CIN | HOU | 0.2 | 5.64 | (5.4) |
Don't forget the rookies! Tajae Sharpe and Will Fuller were just too cheap this week, and a few guys with situations that are improved via injury should have been a bit higher like Travis Benjamin. It's a tough thing to model since the samples are so small for bench players, even smaller for rookies, and people are always getting injured. Next week make sure to tweak a couple guys that are benefiting from injuries.
But tough break with Antonio, crushes every week...except one a season. Last year's dud game made sense: he went up against Jason Verrett who is one of the best corners in the league and got shut down. Sunday he just didn't seem to get targeted much, while Sammie Coates (who I think is awful) was targeted a bunch. Weird day for him. Same for Brees, how does he not murder vs the Giants? I projected him for 330 yards haha, one of the highest I can ever remember.
Have you ever tried DFS baseball? It's my worst sport by far, but I think these models would be really interesting for it cause the samples are so huge.
Also really interested if a future version of your model can start beating human projections. Models crush in NBA and MLB, do ok in golf, but seem to be giving up edge in football and mixed martial arts. Lack of sample sizes make eyeball numbers do a bit better, but there has to be a way to model it better than human brains are capable of.
Thanks for the feedback! The model here takes a huge hit for not having a projection on a player until they hit at least two sample points in a season. Even then, their gamma curves are really weird looking and inconsistent until they've hit their 8-9 game mark. In backtesting this is around where the model started winning consistently, hoping that trend continues.
In news of the positive, this upcoming week is my first with rookies present. Although as I will write soon, their estimates tend to be very conservative to start because of the lack of a body of work.
One thing I am tweaking a bit this week is the statistical significance of defenses and the impact that has on point projections. Modeling has it count for a little more of the variance in points projections than what I have already accounted for.
I hope no one hates me for saying this, but I haven't tried applying the model to baseball yet because I'm not the biggest fan of baseball. Casual watcher at best. I am though a huge NBA fan and am currently looking into the applicability of a Bayesean algorithm there!
I completely get the lack of love for baseball. I played for 13 years and even I have trouble watching at times. But the statistics part of it is fascinating. Events seem to occur randomly at certain frequencies, the sample sizes are enormous, and the game can be modeled with simple markov chains. You would fall in love with baseball stats. But basketball is still more fun so really interested to see what you can put together there
Shouldn't your title be Week 2 ... not Week 1?
Yep, bleary eyed team-leibniz was bleary eyed last night ;)
Hey @team-leibniz and @rdaut44, good stuff. I wanted to bring your attention to this site, which is interesting because they already have a platform which has statistical R and gamma curves as well as outside analysis factored into their model; http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/category/r
FWIW, its useful to glance over it as you compare to your own research.
So team-leibniz from your Week 2 projections, you had some gold-nuggets in there, specifically with Arizona D, which had a monster game you had them ranked numero uno, that was a solid pick. Im looking foward to your week 3 projections. I looked at your optimizer spreadsheet and have a question, how do you easily/quickly update the projections per player ? I can do that with vlookup to update the salaries, but the projections are a manual effort? thx!
Thanks for the great feedback! I will be sure to look into that site in the weeks to come!
I have actually been update the projections for player once each week on Thursday when I release my projections. On my side, everything is automated, I use a program called R to populate this information for me after I make global changes to injuries, changes in weather, etc. But, Vlookup in excel would be just about the fastest way to do so otherwise if you had information of your own you would like to substitute in!