Week 3 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Analysis - Positions, Salaries, Projected Point Values, Rankings and More!

It's Thursday night, so that must mean one thing - TIME FOR SOME FOOTBALL!

I have meticulously compiled my rather large database of NFL information with two new weeks of information. I have also adjusted my projections to account for new defensive data and finally have enough minimum data points to start rating rookies!

The results? VERY interesting.

The biggest shakeup has happened in my DST Rankings. Take, for instance, the following Top 5:

Rank	Change	Team	Percentile
1	+4	GB	0.970
2	+6	DEN	0.917
3	+10	BAL	0.865
4	0	NE	0.858
5	+10	DET	0.845

Notice how Green Bay vaulted to the top of the rankings, even though they had a bad loss on the road at the Vikings and gave up a ton of points on the road at Jacksonville. Notice the common refrain there? On the road. The algorithm loves how even though they have given up points, they have accounted for underestimates in my projections on a rolling eight game average in the 97th percentile of NFL defenses. That is statistically significant.

The same would be true of Detroit. They vaulted up ten spots on their defensive average because of a strong showing of holding Titans players on average below expectations. If the algorithm holds this week, I would expect Detroit/Green Bay to be a low scoring affair, both in fantasy and in game points. As of the time I am publishing this, the game over/under is 47 points. If I lived in Vegas, I might give that a look.

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Sometimes, a Garbage Time QB is all you need

And right now, Blake Bortles is shaping up to be an all time great. Below is the overall rankings of my database for Week 3, Ranks 10-17. Notice how Bortles is on the rise, while a guy like Russell Wilson is falling sharply. Seattle is not getting early leads or sustaining any demonstrable offense.

One might argue the same for the Jags, but they just are accumulating crazy fantasy points when they are down big in games. This past week vs. San Diego was no exception. They do get a home game this week, but against a strong #3 ranked DST in my database in the Ravens. If the Ravens get a strong start, look for much of the same from Bortles, and a lot of garbage time points from guys like T.J. Yeldon, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas.

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
10	-2	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	DET	20.21	7700	5
11	-2	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	NO	20.06	9500	20
12	+11	Blake Bortles	QB	JAX	BAL	19.80	6500	3
13	+5	Andy Dalton	QB	CIN	DEN	19.79	5700	2
14	-9	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	SF	19.74	7100	22
15	-2	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	JAX	19.11	6100	26
16	-1	Derek Carr	QB	OAK	TEN	19.04	6900	21
17	+2	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	IND	19.00	6700	27

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YAY! I have rookies! Finally!

It takes at least three events for me to generate a meaningful gamma curve for a player. I use a historical position average as the first, and Weeks 1 and 2 for the last two. With this, I have enough information to make projections!

As a general warning though, these tend to be conservative. Consider the following snippet from my receiver rankings:

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
49	N/A	Sterling Shepard	WR	NYG	WAS	9.85	5500	28
50	-6	Kamar Aiken	WR	BAL	JAX	9.653	3100	26
51	-13	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	NYG	9.29	3800	24
52	+6	Cecil Shorts	WR	TB	LA	8.91	3000	23
53	+1	Mohamed Sanu	WR	ATL	NO	8.89	5700	20
54	N/A	Corey Coleman	WR	CLE	MIA	8.71	5300	29
55	+23	Kenny Stills	WR	MIA	CLE	8.57	3600	32
56	N/A	Tajae Sharpe	WR	TEN	OAK	8.55	4700	19
57	N/A	Tyrell Williams	WR	SD	IND	8.44	4300	27

I think Tajae Sharpe has a phenomenal matchup this week against the Raiders, and is probably better than an 8.55. However, I just don't have enough data to back up that assumption. At this point without more data, everything is recency bias. I try to project as best as possible grading new players on a historical curve, at first. If in the next few weeks a guy like Sharpe continues to shine, he will be climbing the charts.

The Week 3 Algorithm Draft Kings Optimal Lineup Thurs-Mon

Inputting all of my projected points, salaries, and projections in my custom solver yields the following "optimal" lineup for Week 3:

I think Drew Brees is due for a good week based on a terrible Week 2. He gets a good match at home versus Atlanta for a game that is the 10th anniversary of the first home game in the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina. Look for an amped crowd and a fast running Saints side.

Speaking of a slump buster, I think the numbers might be right to like Jimmy Graham this week. He saw tons more snaps last week, and I think the targets will start to come with more red zone opportunities.

The numbers love Matt Forte, and why wouldn't they? He is being used at an astronomical usage rate for the Jets that I haven't seen in numbers this early since 2012 Adrian Peterson. I like him to have a good week, but am aware these past two weeks might not be sustainable.

The weirdest plays here have to be Chris Johnson and Terrelle Pryor. It is what the solver said would be best and am rolling with it. If I had to explain this away, who else is getting targets in Cleveland besides Gary Barnidge? Pryor has already been hovering around double digit targets each week but has not yet seen the endzone. With Corey Coleman down for 4-6 weeks and Josh Gordon still on suspension, I like the spot at this salary.

Chris Johnson is my largest question mark. At the $3500 salary and coming off a great week, the algorithm likes his chances for more touches against a shaky Buffalo rushing defense -- Especially at his salary level. I personally am not as sold, but am hoping his great week last week carries over and he sees a decent split of carries. Being up early would help the cause!

Want to use the solver?

You can too! It can be found here, in a shared file through Dropbox.

This is a tool you can use to project an optimal lineup for Week 3 with my custom rankings and Draft Kings salaries. It uses Microsoft Excel's built in Solver feature that will calculate optimal conditions given a certain amount of inputs. The direct link is here, in a shared file through Dropbox. You will need to download and use with Excel on your desktop.

Feel free though to play around with your own custom players and point values, this is your sandbox! Just remember to follow the instructions provided on the sheet to use and reset each time.

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REMEMBER, THIS IS NOT ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY!

I do not in any way endorse you gambling solely with this information. This is for your mathematical enjoyment! For reminders on how these rankings are generated, please check out my other fantasy pieces here.

Time for my model!

This week, and all weeks in the future, I will show a players change in ranking from the week prior. You can use this new information to gauge players trending in either direction. New players each week will be marked N/A.

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My top QB's:

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
1	0	Drew Brees	QB	NO	ATL	23.4	7900	18
2	0	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	MIN	22.9	7800	7
3	0	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	SD	21.7	7600	25
4	+5	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	NO	21.3	7400	20
5	+1	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	GB	20.9	6800	1
6	-1	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	PHI	20.9	7300	17
7	+6	Ryan Tannehill	QB	MIA	CLE	20.8	6200	32
8	-1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	DET	20.2	7700	5
9	+10	Blake Bortles	QB	JAX	BAL	19.8	6500	3
10	+4	Andy Dalton	QB	CIN	DEN	19.8	5700	2
11	-7	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	SF	19.7	7100	22
12	-2	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	JAX	19.1	6100	26
13	-1	Derek Carr	QB	OAK	TEN	19.0	6900	21
14	+1	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	IND	19.0	6700	27
15	+3	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	WAS	18.8	7000	28
16	+5	Carson Palmer	QB	ARI	BUF	18.8	7200	9
17	-6	Alex Smith	QB	KC	NYJ	18.8	5800	30
18	-1	Sam Bradford	QB	MIN	CAR	18.5	5300	15
19	-3	Jameis Winston	QB	TB	LA	18.4	6000	23
20	-12	Kirk Cousins	QB	WAS	NYG	18.3	6400	24
21	+4	Blaine Gabbert	QB	SF	SEA	17.1	5000	8
22	+2	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	NYJ	KC	17.0	5900	11
23	-3	Marcus Mariota	QB	TEN	OAK	16.5	5900	19
24	+3	Tyrod Taylor	QB	BUF	ARI	14.9	5800	10
25	N/A	Carson Wentz	QB	PHI	PIT	14.0	5500	31
26	N/A	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	CHI	13.8	5700	14
27	-1	Case Keenum	QB	LA	TB	12.9	5000	16
28	0	Brock Osweiler	QB	HOU	NE	12.8	6000	4
29	N/A	Trevor Siemian	QB	DEN	CIN	12.5	5100	13

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My top RB's:

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
1	0	Matt Forte	RB	NYJ	KC	21.34	7000	11
2	+1	DeAngelo Williams	RB	PIT	PHI	18.60	7500	17
3	+2	DeMarco Murray	RB	TEN	OAK	17.92	6300	19
4	+2	LeSean McCoy	RB	BUF	ARI	15.68	6500	10
5	+9	Lamar Miller	RB	HOU	NE	14.61	7200	4
6	+18	CJ Anderson	RB	DEN	CIN	14.08	7300	13
7	+10	Frank Gore	RB	IND	SD	13.83	5000	25
8	+32	Melvin Gordon	RB	SD	IND	13.44	5800	27
9	0	David Johnson	RB	ARI	BUF	13.30	7700	9
10	0	Eddie Lacy	RB	GB	DET	13.14	6100	5
11	+2	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL	NO	12.99	5800	20
12	+3	Latavius Murray	RB	OAK	TEN	12.81	5700	21
13	+42	Chris Johnson	RB	ARI	BUF	12.44	3500	9
14	+11	TJ Yeldon	RB	JAX	BAL	12.39	5600	3
15	+3	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	ATL	12.20	5900	18
16	+20	Giovani Bernard	RB	CIN	DEN	12.13	4300	2
17	+11	Shane Vereen	RB	NYG	WAS	12.08	3700	28
18	N/A	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL	CHI	11.97	6900	14
19	+2	Isaiah Crowell	RB	CLE	MIA	11.94	4700	29
20	0	Rashad Jennings	RB	NYG	WAS	11.79	5100	28
21	-10	Todd Gurley	RB	LA	TB	11.70	7100	16
22	-10	Doug Martin	RB	TB	LA	11.66	5700	23
23	0	Jeremy Hill	RB	CIN	DEN	11.52	3700	2
24	-8	Ryan Mathews	RB	PHI	PIT	11.39	5800	31
25	-3	Darren Sproles	RB	PHI	PIT	11.31	3700	31
26	+13	Theo Riddick	RB	DET	GB	11.22	4900	1
27	+32	LeGarrette Blount	RB	NE	HOU	11.05	4400	6
28	+5	Spencer Ware	RB	KC	NYJ	11.00	5700	30
29	+5	Charles Sims	RB	TB	LA	9.67	4900	23
30	-1	Justin Forsett	RB	BAL	JAX	9.58	3900	26
31	+21	Tevin Coleman	RB	ATL	NO	8.94	4500	20
32	+17	Charcandrick West	RB	KC	NYJ	8.22	3500	30
33	-3	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE	MIA	8.16	4200	29
34	+8	Terrance West	RB	BAL	JAX	8.09	3500	26
35	+10	Matt Jones	RB	WAS	NYG	8.02	4100	24
36	-17	Thomas Rawls	RB	SEA	SF	7.76	5500	22
37	-2	Tim Hightower	RB	NO	ATL	7.73	3300	18
38	-12	Carlos Hyde	RB	SF	SEA	7.21	4400	8
39	+14	Jeremy Langford	RB	CHI	DAL	6.74	5200	12
40	-13	Alfred Morris	RB	DAL	CHI	6.72	3700	14
41	-10	Bilal Powell	RB	NYJ	KC	6.62	3400	11
42	+2	Christine Michael	RB	SEA	SF	6.61	5000	22
43	0	Chris Thompson	RB	WAS	NYG	6.23	3400	24
44	+23	Jay Ajayi	RB	MIA	CLE	5.93	4000	32
45	+1	Reggie Bush	RB	SF	ARI	5.85	3200	10
46	+5	Travaris Cadet	RB	NO	ATL	5.59	3100	18
47	N/A	Jalen Richard	RB	OAK	TEN	5.57	3600	21
48	+9	James White	RB	NE	HOU	5.23	4200	6
49	N/A	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	OAK	5.00	3700	19
50	+14	Fozzy Whittaker	RB	CAR	MIN	4.83	3800	7
51	-10	Jerick McKinnon	RB	MIN	CAR	4.79	3800	15
52	+9	Kenjon Barner	RB	PHI	PIT	4.70	3000	31
53	N/A	Josh Ferguson	RB	IND	SD	4.50	3000	25
54	-6	Lance Dunbar	RB	DAL	CHI	4.45	3000	14
55	+8	Andre Ellington	RB	ARI	BUF	4.42	3600	9
56	N/A	Matt Asiata	RB	MIN	CAR	4.25	3000	15
57	+11	Robert Turbin	RB	IND	SD	4.16	3000	25
58	-11	Ameer Abdullah	RB	DET	GB	3.96	4600	1
59	-9	James Starks	RB	GB	DET	3.87	4000	5
60	N/A	Deandre Washington	RB	OAK	TEN	3.75	3400	21
61	-5	Benjamin Cunningham	RB	LA	TB	3.73	3400	16
62	-8	Shaun Draughn	RB	SF	SEA	3.59	3400	8
63	-1	Denard Robinson	RB	JAX	BAL	3.54	3000	3
64	-6	Alfred Blue	RB	HOU	NE	3.26	3400	4
65	-5	Mike Gillislee	RB	BUF	ARI	3.12	3300	10
66	+5	Orleans Darkwa	RB	NYG	WAS	3.06	3000	28
67	+2	Brandon Bolden	RB	NE	HOU	2.39	3000	6
68	-2	Fitzgerald Toussaint	RB	PIT	PHI	2.37	3000	17
69	+1	Ka'Deem Carey	RB	CHI	DAL	2.11	3100	12
70	N/A	Dwayne Washington	RB	DET	GB	1.11	3600	1

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My top WR's:

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
1	0	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	PHI	20.97	9600	17
2	0	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	NO	20.06	9500	20
3	+1	Brandon Marshall	WR	NYJ	KC	18.06	7300	11
4	+1	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	DET	17.43	7400	5
5	+2	AJ Green	WR	CIN	DEN	17.10	8100	2
6	+5	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	NE	16.79	8600	4
7	+12	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	BUF	16.48	6900	9
8	+1	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	CIN	16.39	6400	13
9	+8	Alshon Jeffery	WR	CHI	DAL	16.30	8000	12
10	-2	Odell Beckham Jr	WR	NYG	WAS	16.21	9100	28
11	+12	Eric Decker	WR	NYJ	KC	15.72	6900	11
12	-6	Brandin Cooks	WR	NO	ATL	15.69	7900	18
13	0	Mike Evans	WR	TB	LA	15.57	7000	23
14	-11	Jordan Matthews	WR	PHI	PIT	15.52	7100	31
15	+1	Jeremy Maclin	WR	KC	NYJ	15.45	6000	30
16	+13	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	HOU	14.51	6400	6
17	+13	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA	CLE	14.46	6600	32
18	-6	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN	CIN	14.22	6000	13
19	+3	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	CHI	14.12	8400	14
20	+7	Allen Robinson	WR	JAX	BAL	13.95	7500	3
21	+28	Allen Hurns	WR	JAX	BAL	13.46	5200	3
22	-12	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA	SF	13.44	6300	22
23	+23	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	CAR	MIN	13.38	7200	7
24	-9	Sammy Watkins	WR	BUF	ARI	13.30	6100	10
25	+6	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	CAR	13.29	5100	15
26	N/A	Will Fuller	WR	HOU	NE	13.15	4800	4
27	-7	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	DET	13.07	7300	5
28	+11	Anquan Boldin	WR	DET	GB	12.79	4200	1
29	+3	Willie Snead	WR	NO	ATL	12.76	6500	18
30	-9	Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	NYG	12.56	3900	24
31	+2	TY Hilton	WR	IND	SD	12.38	6800	25
32	-6	Terrelle Pryor	WR	CLE	MIA	12.26	3400	29
33	-8	Michael Crabtree	WR	OAK	TEN	12.20	6000	21
34	-16	Amari Cooper	WR	OAK	TEN	12.18	7700	21
35	-21	DeSean Jackson	WR	WAS	NYG	12.06	5900	24
36	+14	Michael Floyd	WR	ARI	BUF	12.05	5800	9
37	+31	Devante Parker	WR	MIA	CLE	11.99	4900	32
38	-14	Steve Smith	WR	BAL	JAX	11.92	4100	26
39	+3	Mike Wallace	WR	BAL	JAX	11.79	5000	26
40	-5	Golden Tate	WR	DET	GB	11.65	5900	1
41	+19	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	GB	11.64	6200	1
42	+6	Torrey Smith	WR	SF	SEA	11.63	4300	8
43	+20	Travis Benjamin	WR	SD	IND	11.44	5200	27
44	+17	Andre Johnson	WR	TEN	OAK	11.27	3400	19
45	0	Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	LA	11.06	3900	23
46	+7	Brandon LaFell	WR	CIN	DEN	11.00	3400	2
47	+20	Eddie Royal	WR	CHI	DAL	10.80	3500	12
48	+7	Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	WAS	10.77	4700	28
49	N/A	Sterling Shepard	WR	NYG	WAS	9.85	5500	28
50	-6	Kamar Aiken	WR	BAL	JAX	9.65	3100	26
51	-13	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	NYG	9.29	3800	24
52	+6	Cecil Shorts	WR	TB	LA	8.91	3000	23
53	+1	Mohamed Sanu	WR	ATL	NO	8.89	5700	20
54	N/A	Corey Coleman	WR	CLE	MIA	8.72	5300	29
55	+23	Kenny Stills	WR	MIA	CLE	8.57	3600	32
56	N/A	Tajae Sharpe	WR	TEN	OAK	8.55	4700	19
57	N/A	Tyrell Williams	WR	SD	IND	8.44	4300	27
58	+1	Nelson Agholor	WR	PHI	PIT	8.29	3500	31
59	-22	Kenny Britt	WR	LA	TB	8.24	3900	16
60	N/A	Eli Rogers	WR	PIT	PHI	8.20	3900	17
61	+8	Dontrelle Inman	WR	SD	IND	8.01	3600	27
62	0	Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	PHI	PIT	7.96	3200	31
63	-29	Jermaine Kearse	WR	SEA	SF	7.92	3400	22
64	-36	Tavon Austin	WR	LA	TB	7.83	4100	16
65	-29	Terrance Williams	WR	DAL	CHI	7.78	3300	14
66	+15	Harry Douglas	WR	TEN	OAK	7.71	3000	19
67	-20	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	SF	7.71	4200	22
68	-28	Cole Beasley	WR	DAL	CHI	7.42	3200	14
69	-17	Andrew Hawkins	WR	CLE	MIA	7.14	3000	29
70	-19	Seth Roberts	WR	OAK	TEN	7.09	3500	21
71	-14	Donte Moncrief	WR	IND	SD	6.99	6700	25
72	+18	Rishard Matthews	WR	TEN	OAK	6.75	3300	19
73	-17	Robert Woods	WR	BUF	ARI	6.70	3200	10
74	N/A	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	ATL	6.60	4200	18
75	-4	John Brown	WR	ARI	BUF	6.05	4800	9
76	+9	Phillip Dorsett	WR	IND	SD	5.94	4400	25
77	+10	Albert Wilson	WR	KC	NYJ	5.89	3000	30
78	-12	Brandon Coleman	WR	NO	ATL	5.89	3000	18
79	+16	Danny Amendola	WR	NE	HOU	5.84	3700	6
80	+16	Chris Conley	WR	KC	NYJ	5.80	3100	30
81	-38	Davante Adams	WR	GB	DET	5.77	4100	5
82	+19	Dwayne Harris	WR	NYG	WAS	5.68	3000	28
83	-1	Devin Funchess	WR	CAR	MIN	5.60	4100	7
84	+5	Andre Holmes	WR	OAK	TEN	5.50	3000	21
85	-15	Paul Richardson	WR	SEA	SF	5.34	3000	22
86	-21	Ted Ginn	WR	CAR	MIN	5.32	3700	7
87	+4	Marqise Lee	WR	JAX	BAL	5.22	3000	3
88	N/A	Ryan Grant	WR	WAS	NYG	5.21	3000	24
89	+9	Josh Huff	WR	PHI	PIT	5.09	3000	31
90	N/A	Kevin White	WR	CHI	DAL	4.92	4000	12
91	+9	Chris Hogan	WR	NE	HOU	4.90	3900	6
92	N/A	Sammie Coates	WR	PIT	PHI	4.83	3800	17
93	-1	Justin Hardy	WR	ATL	NO	4.66	3000	20
94	-17	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	CAR	4.62	3200	15
95	-19	Jeremy Kerley	WR	SF	SEA	4.41	3400	8
96	N/A	Breshad Perriman	WR	BAL	JAX	4.27	3000	26
97	N/A	Josh Doctson	WR	WAS	NYG	3.83	3000	24
98	-14	Quinton Patton	WR	SF	SEA	3.79	3100	8
99	-16	Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR	PIT	PHI	3.72	3200	17
100	-7	Corey Brown	WR	CAR	MIN	3.65	3000	7
101	-37	Jaelen Strong	WR	HOU	NE	3.65	3300	4
102	-28	Brice Butler	WR	DAL	CHI	3.42	3000	14
103	-30	Brian Quick	WR	LA	TB	3.39	3000	16
104	0	Jordan Norwood	WR	DEN	CIN	3.27	3000	13
105	N/A	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	DEN	3.17	3500	2
106	-26	Charles Johnson	WR	MIN	CAR	3.16	3000	15
107	-5	Rashad Greene	WR	JAX	BAL	2.08	3000	3
108	N/A	Braxton Miller	WR	HOU	NE	1.78	3000	4

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My top TE's:

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
1	+5	Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	MIN	13.42	5800	7
2	-1	Jordan Reed	TE	WAS	NYG	13.39	6500	24
3	+5	Delanie Walker	TE	TEN	OAK	12.88	5000	19
4	0	Jimmy Graham	TE	SEA	SF	11.79	3000	22
5	-2	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	CHI	11.63	4300	14
6	+20	Martellus Bennett	TE	NE	HOU	11.46	4700	6
7	+4	Julius Thomas	TE	JAX	BAL	11.39	4600	3
8	+1	Antonio Gates	TE	SD	IND	10.89	4600	27
9	+1	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	NYJ	9.99	4700	30
10	+13	Jordan Cameron	TE	MIA	CLE	9.52	2900	32
11	-6	Gary Barnidge	TE	CLE	MIA	8.43	4000	29
12	+4	Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	JAX	7.98	3400	26
13	0	Coby Fleener	TE	NO	ATL	7.95	3300	18
14	-7	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	CAR	7.94	3100	15
15	-3	Charles Clay	TE	BUF	ARI	7.19	2900	10
16	+14	Jacob Tamme	TE	ATL	NO	7.07	3200	20
17	+21	Larry Donnell	TE	NYG	WAS	6.57	2700	28
18	0	Vernon Davis	TE	WAS	NYG	6.55	2700	24
19	+10	Dwayne Allen	TE	IND	SD	6.26	3800	25
20	+11	Will Tye	TE	NYG	WAS	6.21	2600	28
21	+3	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE	TB	LA	6.12	2900	23
22	N/A	Maxx Williams	TE	BAL	JAX	6.09	2500	26
23	+5	Brent Celek	TE	PHI	PIT	5.83	2800	31
24	-5	Eric Ebron	TE	DET	GB	5.73	3700	1
25	-3	Clive Walford	TE	OAK	TEN	5.72	2800	21
26	-11	Lance Kendricks	TE	LA	TB	5.10	2700	16
27	0	Zach Miller	TE	CHI	DAL	5.08	2900	12
28	+6	Jesse James	TE	PIT	PHI	4.85	3500	17
29	-4	Crockett Gillmore	TE	BAL	JAX	4.85	2500	26
30	+11	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	SD	4.80	2500	25
31	N/A	Brandon Myers	TE	TB	LA	4.79	2500	23
32	-18	Jared Cook	TE	GB	DET	4.61	2900	5
33	+11	Anthony Fasano	TE	TEN	OAK	4.46	2500	19
34	N/A	Demetrius Harris	TE	KC	NYJ	4.37	2500	30
35	+2	Jermaine Gresham	TE	ARI	BUF	4.31	2500	9
36	+14	Dion Sims	TE	MIA	CLE	4.30	2500	32
37	+5	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	LA	4.04	2500	23
38	-6	Vance McDonald	TE	SF	SEA	3.98	2900	8
39	-22	Richard Rodgers	TE	GB	DET	3.72	2700	5
40	0	Darren Fells	TE	ARI	BUF	3.67	2500	9
41	-20	Luke Willson	TE	SEA	SF	3.67	2500	22
42	N/A	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	NO	3.27	2500	20
43	+3	Marcedes Lewis	TE	JAX	BAL	2.63	2500	3
44	-8	Garrett Celek	TE	SF	SEA	2.25	2500	8
45	-2	Tyler Kroft	TE	CIN	DEN	2.23	2500	2
46	N/A	Rhett Ellison	TE	MIN	CAR	1.87	2500	15
47	N/A	Gavin Escobar	TE	DAL	CHI	1.85	2500	14
48	+3	Virgil Green	TE	DEN	CIN	1.76	3000	13
49	-10	Ryan Griffin	TE	HOU	NE	1.44	2500	4
50	N/A	Geoff Swaim	TE	DAL	CHI	1.38	2500	14
51	-3	Ed Dickson	TE	CAR	MIN	1.28	2500	7
52	N/A	Logan Paulsen	TE	WAS	DAL	1.20	2500	12
53	N/A	CJ Uzomah	TE	CIN	DEN	1.18	2500	2
54	-1	Kellen Davis	TE	NYJ	KC	0.00	2500	11

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My top DST's:

Note here, statistically significant defenses are in the 75th percentile or higher. On the other end of the spectrum, the worst defenses are in the 25th percentile or lower. Defenses in the middle are a total crapshoot.

Rank	Change	Team	Percentile
1	+4	GB	0.970
2	+6	DEN	0.917
3	+10	BAL	0.865
4	0	NE	0.858
5	+10	DET	0.845
6	+1	HOU	0.841
7	-5	MIN	0.828
8	+2	SEA	0.803
9	+14	BUF	0.777
10	-9	ARI	0.774
11	+1	KC	0.772
12	-6	DAL	0.729
13	+1	CIN	0.691
14	+8	CHI	0.614
15	-12	CAR	0.587
16	+3	TB	0.547
17	+9	PHI	0.397
18	-2	ATL	0.390
19	+2	OAK	0.370
20	+12	NO	0.297
21	+4	TEN	0.292
22	+9	SF	0.260
23	-3	LA	0.251
24	+4	NYG	0.226
25	-14	SD	0.223
26	+1	JAX	0.156
27	-18	IND	0.145
28	-11	WAS	0.120
29	0	MIA	0.109
30	-12	NYJ	0.085
31	-1	PIT	0.030
32	-8	CLE	0.014

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Image Sources

1. Football Dance - GIPHY

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