~ The next little ice age Vol. 67 ~ Global warming is pseudo-science? ~

1 - A full-disk multiwavelength extreme ultraviolet image of the sun taken by SDO - Credits: NASA/Goddard/SDO AIA Team.

It’s very difficult to understand the climate of the Earth without adding the Sun to the equation. It’s possible that by not taking into account this decisive factor has led us to make such erroneous climate models?

We have to admit, climate models are not met and the worst thing is that, as the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1973 Ivar Giaever said, global warming has become a religion. Or according to his words, a pseudo-science.

For many years the scientific community had looked at the "solar constant" as irrelevant to Earth's climate. The small variation of only 0.1% in the total Solar irradiation between the maximum of the Solar cycle and the minimum, was considered little more than an anecdote, without any importance. But the truth is that 0.1% is such an enormous amount of energy.

During these years the scientific studies paid with the tax money have managed to make a lot of scientific publications. Many of these investigations have been predicting catastrophic climate changes. And these studies make man and his emissions guilty, of course. Something very funny from the geological point of view, replete with catastrophic climatic events throughout the different ages. Likewise, the presence of the human being on Earth represents a tiny fraction of the history of our planet.

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In recent years many scientists, including many of them who are or were part of the IPCC, have carried out a series of scientific studies that, although they do not appear in the media, come to shed some light in order to understand the complex dynamic system that is Earth's climate.

Leading one of these scientific studies we find the Professor Dr. Katja Matthes, who from the University of Kiel in Germany managed to group a large number of scientists from different universities around the world to make a paper published on June 22, 2017. This scientific collaboration of nineteen different universities and institutions, among which is the University of Kiel (Germany), the Institute of Astrophysics of Andalusia in Granada (Spain), the University of Reading (UK), the University of Montreal (Canada) , among others. They presents us with an extensive fifty-six page paper on solar forcing.

But, what’s the solar forcing?

”The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays.”
Q1 - doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017

2 - Comparison of several TSI reconstructions, showing 6-month running averages of the NRLTSI1 record (reference for CMIP5, and thus continuing after the 2010 end date of CMIP5) - K. Matthes et al.

This study shows the great importance of the TSI for the Earth's climate. And it is not necessary to dig a lot inside the paper to realize it. Since in the same abstract we can read a future forecast very similar to other scientific studies that have been published this year.

”For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario.”
Q2 - doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017

But if there are scientists who predict accelerated global warming and others a Maunder Minimum scenario, which of the two ideological currents is right?

According to the scientific method we must look at the data. But unfortunately the NOAA temperature maps don’t help us. Anyone who takes some time analyzing the maps finds many "errors", either because there are colored areas that do not even have weather stations, or because of the bad location of the weather stations, or in other cases the darkening conditions of the stations themselves. Other effects, such as the "heat-island" that occurs in cities, produce exaggerated readings that can only be taken into account at the local level.
But on Earth we have two environments that are very sensitive to thermal changes that aren’t governed by economic or political interests. And thanks to the work of a large number of scientists and the technological progress that we have developed in the last decades, we can access this data in a very simple way.
The ice measurement data from the Arctic and Antarctic platforms offer us an approximate view of the global increase or decrease in temperature. As we have a large number of Universities making measurements, we will also avoid the graphs that NOAA offers us.

3 - Current sea ice concentration (Arctic) - Credit : meereisportal.de

In this graph we see the red line that represents this year within the shaded area in gray that represents the average of the first historical series 1981-2010. Many people believe that the theories of global warming started with Al Gore, but no, they are much older and if they were true there would not be enough ice left in the Arctic to do a drink. As we can see in the graph this is far from happening, since in the measurements of yesterday we see that there are 11.940 million square kilometers.

4 - Current sea ice concentration (Arctic) - Credit : meereisportal.de

In this image we can see in addition to the total extension the impressive amount of ice accumulated in the Hudson Bay or in the east of Greenland and has not yet started the winter in the northern hemisphere.

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Identifying global climatic hazards will only be possible by identifying the real causes. Because without the help of man, our beloved planet has experienced extreme weather events, which forced our ancestors to live in caves in some areas or to migrate to other regions. And that only in the small fragment of time that represents the appearance of the "homo sapiens". Pre-human geological ages also show us the incredible variability of Earth's climate, from the "Snowball Earth", in which our planet was totally covered in ice. At other ages, however, there was no ice even in the polar regions. And that could happen without the help of man. Also as you have read before, the latest data doesn’t follow that trend.

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References

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1
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sdo/news/first-light.html

[Q1, Q2, 2] - Matthes, K. et al., : Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247-2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017.
https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/2247/2017/

3, 4
http://www.meereisportal.de/en/seaicemonitoring/sea-ice-observations-from-satellite-measurements/current-sea-ice-maps/

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Gift-thanks to @markperandin

Let's take care of the pale blue dot

Enjoy your day. Enjoy your life.

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Gift-thanks to @stellabelle