Will the United States be going to war with North Korea? 

Tensions have lit up again in the region with the launch of an inter-continental ballistic missile by North Korea. North Korea claims that the test was a great success and this would mean that the U.S is now in striking distance of the nuclear capabilities of North Korea. It was a long time coming and should not have taken anybody by surprise. The table is set for a massive confrontation and it will be interesting to see how all the parties involved will deal with the threat that North Korea poses. 

Why is North Korea so addiment on developing inter-continental ballistic missiles? 

The big question is why does North Korea want to develop these missiles, and the answer to that is very simple. North Korea is ruled by the regime of Kim Jong-un with an iron fist. Everything is controlled by the state and there are absolutely no freedoms for the ordinary people. The only people who enjoy any form of luxuries are a chosen few. The regime ensures that no outsiders can ‘’poison’’ the minds of the people of North Korea by controlling everything they watch, see and hear. The regime fears the fact that it will be overthrown one day and knows that a powerful deterrent is needed to keep any potential invaders at bay. It would basically make the regime untouchable and the only form of pressure that the U.S could instil on North Korea would be economical sanctions as they have been doing for years now.    

Who are the involved parties in this conflict? 

Like in most conflicts around the world there are multiple parties who have a stake in the issue at hand. In this conflict the main parties are the U.S (and its allies), North Korea, Russia and China. These countries all have something to gain out of keeping the regime in place on the one hand and on the other, seeing it disappear for good. Let’s discuss the different countries and there interests in this conflict.   

The U.S and allies 

The U.S has had a long standing alliance with South Korea dating back to the Korean war in the 1950’s. When North Korea backed by the Soviets invaded South Korea, the U.S and several other countries came to aid the South. After the Korean war the U.S and South Korea signed a bilateral agreement in which was stated that they would defend each other from outside threats. This agreement was formed to repel the Soviets and prevent North Korea from launching a second assault on South Korea. The agreement was enforced by the deployment of thousands of U.S troops in South Korea. If the north would attack, the U.S would automatically be sucked into the conflict. This means that the U.S is obligated to maintain a presence in the region.   

Russia  

Russia has had a long history with North Korea dating back to the time of the Soviet Union and the cold war. Russia backed North Korea during the Korean war and North Korea was a profound ally of Russia during the remainder of the cold war. Russia also borders North Korea and has helped them realize there nuclear ambitions in the 60’s. After the collapse of the Soviet Union the Russians rapidly began losing their influence in the world. This manifested in the regained autonomy of multiple states in eastern Europe. These states became mostly pro-western, and eventually for a large part joined NATO. This has always been a thorn in the side of Russia because it brought the military alliance right to their doorstep. The recent problems in the Ukraine haven’t made matters any better, Russia fears that the Ukraine will be joining the European Union and thus eventually NATO. This would be unacceptable for the Russians seeing as this would isolate them completely. The Russians fear that if the U.S attacks North Korea and overthrows the regime, the U.S and her allies will also be on their doorstep in Asia.  From a strategic point of view the Russians would never let this happen.   

China 

China is North Korea’s biggest ally and trading partner. Where the U.S has an agreement with South Korea to guard its security, China has one with the north.  During the Korean war China supported the north with troops and economic aid. China and North-Korea share a 1416 km border. The relationship between China and North Korea has cooled in recent years over the pursuit of North Korea for nuclear weapons. China has restricted coal imports from North Korea and put pressure on the North Korean leadership to stop pursuing its ambitions for nuclear weapons. This is in line with resolutions put in place by the United Nations.   

North Korea 

North Korea is a totalitarian state ruled by Kim Jong-un. The country is as stated earlier ruled with an iron fist and most of the people have no freedom. To maintain this regime a policy of fear is needed to control the masses. This is instilled by arresting/ killing people who oppose the regime and speak poorly of it. The result is what we see in the footages that are ventilated by the North Korean propaganda machine, that of people waving and cheering when ‘’the great leader’’ addresses the nation. Reality is most likely that the people of North Korea hate the regime which has brought suffering to the country, but threw the ruthlessness of the regime don’t dare to revolt. As long as the country doesn’t have a powerful deterrent it is still vulnerable to foreign intervention. Thus the creation of the nuclear armament program.    

Conclusion 

The title of this blog is called “will the United States be going to war with North Korea’’ and the answer to that is most likely NO. The reason why that isn’t going to happen is the fact that there are too many parties involved with something to loose. What it all boils down to is the fact that North Korea is strategically located for all three superpowers. The Russians would never let the U.S overthrow the regime of North Korea and let Korea be one nation again. This would mean that a unified Korea would be a major ally for the U.S in Asia, and would put even more pressure on the Russians seeing as they would become boxed in by U.S presence at its borders. You can witness this process in the Ukraine where the fear of NATO presence at its borders has put the Russians on the offensive. This manifests itself threw the Russians supporting the rebels in Ukraine. China faces a similar dilemma, on the one hand they probably aren’t very amused with the current situation where North Korea is stirring up trouble in region, but on the other hand wouldn’t want the U.S to close to its borders. Also a major conflict in the region would set on a massive refugee crisis in which the Russians and Chinese would be affected. Then there would be the huge economic implications that would flow from a war on the Korean peninsula. War and even the possibility of nuclear war would cause massive uncertainty on financial markets, and would probably catapult the world back in to recession or even depression.  The recent meeting between Chinese  and Russian leadership most likely indicates that the two superpowers are going to intensify their collaboration in the future. President Trump has stated that he is going to deal with the North Korean problem, but it looks like his options are spread thin. He has urged China to put pressure on North Korea to stop the development of nuclear weapons. This is probably the only viable option that he has. In the end its really quite simple, if military intervention was really a feasible option the U.S would have dealt with North Korea when they first started developing their nuclear weapons program. Its best to fight a fire when its small and not a real threat, yet if you don’t possess the means to fight this small fire and it becomes an inferno, then maybe it is best to let the fire take its course and eventually burn out.