Week 12 Results | 18W-16L-07P | -0.030 Units Loss

costanza (69)in #money • 6 years ago

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.

I made a couple units profit with the mid-week European games and gave it all back in the league during the weekend. The odds and lines on the betting market are really being set air tight these days and it's a lot more difficult to find good value spots right now. Currently I'm in something of a sideways channel running around break even for the last ~200 bets. If anything, keeping weekly results posts with a graph like this really shows variance in betting and can get you in a mindset of longer term thinking. In the end it's all a numbers game and understanding the probabilities is a key skill to beat this market.

I get quite some bets out of the limited amount of matches in total each week. One of the reasons for this is because I don't mind hedging in and out of positions taking some guaranteed profit, most of the times these are bets where I took some on the under or underdog while the match looks quite tricky and the bet becomes "a sweat". In these situations when it is possible to take a guaranteed +7% edge I will most of the time do so even if I don't see actual value in the hedge bet itself. This really helps to keep the swings in check and build volume at the same time.

Live betting especially in the league covered on our SBC Discord Channel was a bit in a slump this weekend. As always sports betting is pretty much a grind with small edges that manifest over time. The ups and downs will always be part of it. The pre-game posted bet this week on the under in Lokeren vs Oostende won with ease and the match ending in a 0-0 Score.

Discord Live-Bets

Europe
Monaco +0.5 @ 2.15 WON
Club Brugge -0.5 @ 2.19 (49' 1-1) LOST
Anderlecht 1st Half +0 @ 1.98 (1-0 38') PUSH
Krasnodar 1H +0 @ 1.80 (31' 0-0) WON
Genk +0.25 @ 1.90 (0-0 5') WON
Krasnodar +0.25 @ 1.87 (0-0 12') LOST

Belgian League
Moeskroen Team total Under 1.75 @ 1.96 (2-1 30') HALF LOST
Club Brugge +0 @ 1.82 (71' 1-2) LOST
Standard vs Genk Over 2 @ 2.03 (29' 0-0) PUSH
Eupen vs Anderlecht Over 3 @ 2.06 (63' 2-0) PUSH
over 16.5 CK @ 1.90 (4-11 78') LOST
Eupen vs Anderlecht Over 3.5 @ 2.51 ( 2-1 81') LOST
Waasland +0.25 @ 1.88 (0-1 66') HALF WON

The exected profit from the pink line continues to catch up to the actual profit line but there is still quite the gap. Busy chedule ahead the next 7 days with both week 13 & week 14 on the program.

 Regular Season 2018-2019 Results
 494 Bets| 226W-203L-65P|Staked 263.218u|+19.510u Profit|+7.41% ROI

Let me know in the comments how your betting week was !

#investing #busy #sbc #betting

6 years ago in #money by costanza (69)

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Week 12 Results | 18W-16L-07P | -0.030 Units Loss

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