Week 11 Results | 08W-11L-04P | -2.510 Units Loss

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.

I have been running extremely hot last month and the regression to the mean started kicking in as expected. Mostly the pre-game bets all lost. Some of them deserved while others very unfortunate (Zulte-Waregem). Live betting still went quite fine and the downards correction is still very limited overall. (Betting can get ugly on the way down). I also continued to increase my stakes a bit and have increased them by 20% compared to how I started the season. The average bet as a result increased to around 0.6 units. I will hold this for a while even though I have quite some room to move up more right now.

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One of the things that is noticable right now is that the market is really sharpened up and edges are harder to find comparing things to a month ago. Especially in live betting it is getting increasingly harder to hit target odds and they are most of the time adjusted to the situation. For now I will not be making any kind of adjustements and just continue the way I have been going about things just skipping on the bets where the market is adjusted.

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Every week I share quite some of my live bets on our SBC Discord Channel. aside from the bigger bets that I post in a different format, these bets are more about information instead of there to actually being followed. I take these at different stake sizes but will always post them as flat. If it's not worth a small flat bet I won't post it. I have been settling all live bets properly in discord and also post them here each week. It should not take that long to make a post with overall resulst the next time there is an international break.

League Matches Discord Live-Bets

Waasland +2.25 @ 1.87 WON
Moeskroen 1H +0.25 @ 1.93 (0-0 16') HALF WON
Antwerp vs Lokeren 1H under 1 @ 2.206 PUSH
Antwerp vs Lokeren 1H Over 0.75 @ 2.04 (16' 0-0) HALF WON
Kortrijk +0 @ 1.81 (2-1 82') Rejected
Kortrijk vs Stvv Over 3.5 @ 2.62 (2-1 82') WON
Genk -0.5 @ 2.16 (2-0 72') LOST
Genk ve Eupen Over 3.5 @ 2.39 ( 82' 2-1) LOST
AA Gent 1st Half +0 @ 1.84 (35' 0-1) WON
Oostende +0.25 @·1.99 ( 5' 0-0) LOST
AA Gent +0 @ 1.74 (0-3 85') WON

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I'm still running far above the results that can be expected in the longer run. There is no wat to tell where it will go the next couple weeks though. I just look at it one match at a time and see where the ship strands in the end without caring too much about these short term swings.

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Previous Personal Results
Week 11 Results 23 Bets | 08W-11L-04P | Staked 14.56u | -2.510u Loss..
Week 10 Results 43 Bets | 16W-19L-07P | Staked 26.84u | -1.389u Loss..
Week 09 Results 60 Bets | 27W-26L-07P | Staked 32.77u | +2.810u Profit
Week 08 Results 46 Bets | 26W-16L-04P | Staked 26.09u | +5.790u Profit
Week 07 Results 39 Bets | 19W-15L-05P | Staked 15.86u | +3.200u Profit
Week 06 Results 55 Bets | 32W-18L-05P | Staked 25.68u | +8.670u Profit
Week 05 Results 55 Bets | 21W-24L-10P | Staked 24.37u | -0.420u Loss..
Week 04 Results 33 Bets | 14W-13L-06P | Staked 16.30u | +0.190u Profit
Week 03 Results 38 Bets | 22W-13L-03P | Staked 18.74u | +6.170u Profit
Week 02 Results 30 Bets | 09W-17L-04P | Staked 17.41u | -3.120u Loss..
Week 01 Results 31 Bets | 14W-14L-03P | Staked 20.19u | +0.150u Profit

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 Regular Season 2018-2019 Results
 453 Bets| 208W-187L-58P|Staked 238.816u|+19.536u Profit|+8.18% ROI

Let me know in the comments how your betting week was !