LTC price will be back to $80 for a 60% return within 6 months (or maybe within 6 weeks?)

in #litecoin7 years ago

Atomic swaps - transactions between blockchains occurring at high speed and with low transaction fees.

Technical requirements for atomic swaps are SEGWIT complete and Lightning network enabled.

Atomic swaps will allow transactions between, to and from BTC and LTC, to happen with high speed and no transaction costs.

https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@digicrypt/atomic-swaps-future-of-crypto

Value of LTC is:

1) very low transactions costs. Much lower than BTC.

2) transaction completion time is very fast. Much faster than BTC.

3) low level of politics involved in LTC technical evolution. Controlled primarily by Charlie Lee. LTC evolution is fast and seems highly efficient. No hard forks with multiple coin streams to date.  Compare to BTC which has already split into several active forks with multiple coins still trading.  More potential splits of BTC are looming. Nothing like that on the horizon for LTC.

4) once atomic swaps are enabled, LTC can become the main coin for commerce and transactions. Technically comparable to credit cards in terms of transaction completion time, but transactions fees are much lower. LTC could take over a meaningful portion of credit card transactions in the next few years. 

Think of the price that LTC could trade at, if LTC just had a fraction of the value of VISA, or Mastercard, or American Express, or Discover, or .....

The future vision of a big brother / little brother partnership is clear:

BTC becomes your savings account. BTC is a savings vehicle for long term store of value.

LTC becomes your chequing account/charge card.  You use LTC for some portion of day to day commerce (as a superior alternative to fiat cash, checks, or any current charge card).

I believe that is the vision that has caused LTC price to rise at an almost a linear rate over the last 6 months.

Looking at the chart above, the volatility in LTC has been much lower over the last six months than many other coins. And other than over the last month, there was no exponential price action. An exponentially increasing price chart is typically a signal of price entering unsustainable territory. But LTC has corrected over the last week and the price is now back down to the 6 month trend line. I don't expect a further significant drop in LTC price, too far below the 6 month trend line.

Extrapolate the previous 6 month trend line out for future six months, to the end of Q1'18, and there is little doubt that LTC price should  be back to at least $80.

Is extrapolation of historical trends a good way to predict future pricing?

Absolutely NOT !!  Extrapolation is a terrible way to predict future pricing.

But I'm willing to make an exception in this case and based partially on extrapolation, predict that LTC trades over $80 before Apr 2018.  That will be a 60% price increase relative to the current $50 price.

Why am I willing to make an exception and accept price extrapolation for LTC?

1) as per the beginning of this post, there are several fundamental reasons why LTC price should trend higher.  A higher price is not just extrapolation, it represents realizing the value of the technical vision and capabilities of LTC. And capturing the leadership position that LTC has, in being able to technically innovate at a faster rate than most other coins.

2) the volatility of LTC has been so low that line fitting for extrapolation is particularly simple.  With such an obvious trend, we can be somewhat more confident in predicting that the future will extrapolate from history.

3) predicting price rising to $80 isn't predicting a new high. It is just predicting that price returns to previous high territory. There is more risk and uncertainty if trying to use extrapolation to get to a new high. There is relatively less risk in using extrapolation to just get back to a previous high.

In summary, LTC will trade at $80 before Apr 2018, for a 60% price increase relative to today's price.

In the crypto world, this almost doesn't count as a prediction.  Just 60% increase in six months? 

Why is your predicted price increase for this crypto so low, will be the question from some sources.

Notice that for any "normal" investment paradigm, 60% increase in six months is unheard of.

When was the last time that the Dow Jones, S&P500, or NASDAQ increased by 60% in 6 months?

When was the last time that the price of your house increased by 60% in 6 months?

When was the last time that the price of your favorite precious metal increased by 60% in 6 months?

When was the last time that your investment grade rare art, rare wine, rare classic vehicle, or rare manuscript increased by 60% in 6 months?

So now you see why google searches for various cryptocurrencies are increasing at an exponential rate. This is where the money is now and in the near future, in terms of investing opportunities for out-sized returns.

Don't just go Seeking Alpha. 

Go to the place where people are Delivering Alpha!!

For my money, the most certain place to get a 60% increase in the next 6 months is LTC.

Go Charlie Lee! 

Go Litecoin!!  

Go Lightning Network !!! 

Go Atomic Swaps!!!! 

Go LTC!!!!!


Upvotes, resteems, and insightful comments always welcomed.

STEEM On.

DaveB

image original source material from coinbase.com (where you can buy and sell LTC)

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Yeah, they are working on the user interface for atomic swaps so that users may find it damn easy without knowing the underneath framework.
Also it seems color coins would be an agenda going forward so that people can have ICOs with Litecoin blockchain similar to ERC20 tokens.
Charlie and his team of 5 is really active. Also it seems they have plans to introduce smart contracts as well.
Litecoin is showing the way to Bitcoin; leading the path of innovation.

I think LTC would hit 80 again within this year. Three cheers to Charlie Lee.

I agree. $80 in 2017 is possible. April 2018 is just the conservative prediction

Considering it brushed $100 a couple weeks back, I agree it is extremely conservative.

With BTC at $3500 (and projected to rise), I see no reason why LTC can be worth significantly more.

And now to knock everyone's socks off....a market cap of $50B puts LTC near $1000. Sound crazy? Only if you forget the fact that $50B would be 1% of all the daily transactions on the Forex market....1%???? Is that really that outrageous?

I think the use cases for LTC can generate 20X price increase for LTC, faster than the use cases for STEEM can generate 20X price increase for STEEM

I agree with that 1000%. Personally, I am extremely optimistic about steem...it seems, from your last couple posts, you arent that bullish on it (maybe I am misreading it).

That said, LTC is the golden nugget in all of this. To start, I think I wrote earlier today, I am a huge Lee fan. He will steer LTC to incredible heights. He is also going in the "money" arena. This is a much bigger market than the social media market. Even if Steem knocks off FB, which I dont think it will, that is still a small market compared to the world's money. FB is what, $400B...the USD alone is $3.8T...add in the rest of the currencies and you are most likely over $7T.

I know it is all fun with numbers but if you are talking money, it is such a huge market. LTC market cap, if Lee pulls off what he is trying to do, could rival BTC and even Gold.

Damn, I just talked myself into buying more LTC.

I agree with most of your comment except one. Lee's vision is not to have rivalry with Bitcoin but to walk hands in hand with it.
People really get confused with all these advance coins and their implementation. Bitcoin has a currency value similar to gold and how often an individual deals in Gold on daily basis except few of them. It's a precious metal like Bitcoin ;).
Copper has more practical use in day today life so that doesn't mean it would take over Gold.
Yeah, Lee aka SatoshiLite will give this coin recognition it deserve through out the globe. Already Canada and other countries have started launching LTC ATMs along with BTC. I hope LTC would be worth 30LTC/1BTC at least.
Hope for the best. Cheers!!!

I never stated that LTC was to rival BTC or that was Lee's vision.

Yeah; just got confused with your "LTC market cap, if Lee pulls off what he is trying to do, could rival BTC and even Gold." statement.
Though three cheers to Charlie Lee...

Actually, 60% increase in 6 months would mean that the coin itself barely has any value. Assuming that Bitcoin keeps rising, this increase would already be coming off the value that BTC drags the other coins along with... Besides, if you were to invest in something like Bitshares right now chances are you have it doubled or tripled by that time.

BTC also has a chance of increasing by 60% in 6 months, so it could drag LTC along.

BitConnect is nothing more than a classic Ponzi scheme. It is guaranteed to come crashing down.

I'll pull a Jamie Dimon on you and agree it could increase by 500% before it crashes.

But it will crash.

All Ponzi schemes crash

Eventually

And the residual value after the crash is always the same

ZERO.

Stay away from BitConnect

How is Bitshares a ponzi scheme?

My bad. Wrong reference. I meant BitConnect. I went back and edited the reply that was in error in slandering BitShares

I bought LTC at 58$ , it has totally dropped and I am waiting for it to rise back up , I'm hope it goes up faster than 6 weeks or months

Be patient. LTC at $80 within 6 months is 33% increase on your purchase price.

Where else can you get a 33% return in such a short time frame?

You will not regret that purchase at all @journeyoflife.

LTC is going to be one of the high flying coins in my opinion. As @davebrewer mentioned, Lee really has his act together.

LTC is caught up in the entire crypto sell off. I believe the $80 is very optimistic...I can easily see over $100 by the date set forth in the article.

Ilove LTC!!!

Great post as aways. Upvoted and resteemed

I agree that LTC is extremely cheap right now. I think it's a great buy and will continue to buy as it rises without much fear. Thanks for the info to back your thoughts. I'm excited for the future in so many ways!

I wouldn't say extremely cheap. But I do agree it looks like a great time to be buying in.

True. Extremely cheap may be slight hyperbole :)

@davebrewer,
LTC is the first network which tested lighten speed (if I am not mistaken) and LTC has an honorable development team as well. Last PBOC made a chaos on crypto market, and now it looks recovering! So, what I believe is this is a great opportunity to LTC to power up! Definitely it will find a new peak at $100 - $150 range! So, in the latest price drop I was mainly focusing on LTC than other cryptos and now I am ready to enjoy the investment! BTC, LTC, ETH, XMR, XRP we won't fear to invest on those coins. They will not make us loss and every price drop means they will find a new peak again :D
Great article and well detailed! Thank you very much for sharing with us!

Cheers~

LTC at $120 in the next 12 months could happen

@davebrewer,
Yeah, it might be vary around $100 - $150! Hope I could make a good profit also :D

Cheers~

the lightening fast speed test worked quite cool but due to the sudden FUD it bought it back down i hope it reaches new height soon :)

It will be back to new heights soon

lets hope so :) fingers crossed :D

Thank you @davebrewer for posting this. I am a huge Charlie Lee fan viewing him in the same light as Steve Jobs and Elon Musk. He has the incredible ability to take his vision and bring it to fruition. His goal always was to be the silver to BTC gold. I believe he will achieve this.

One thing that you missed in your write up which is crucial, although I am not sure it will be in by the 4/2018 time frame you set up, is the vault. Lee is working to secure people's coins in a vault with a system that enables reversal of transactions where people's coins are hacked. Somehow he is seeking to be able to put a time period, like two days, for this to be done. He views securing coins as one of the most important steps needed to move the crypto world forward.

it will be awesome to see a 60% return that would be really amazing if things goes really well i am holding i will wait :)

i invested in buying some LTC and it went up but all of a sudden back to earth no liftoff lol hahah

If you are invested you need to be patient. Like 6 months patient.

If you were day trading, then that is a stupid thing to do and you should stop being stupid.

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