Crypto Space BLEEDING OUT? BUCKLE UP - recent correction AIN'T OVER just yet [my personal expectations]steemCreated with Sketch.

in Project HOPE3 years ago (edited)

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INTRODUCTION

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Let me underline that this post is not financial advice and I'm only sharing my point of view on the discussed topic. Knowing that I may be absolutely wrong, I'm also hoping to receive some valuable feedback from you dear readers.
Whether you would agree with my conclusions or not - I will gladly learn your opinion on the current situation in the crypto market.

WAS RECENT CORRECTION TO BE EXPECTED?

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Just the other day when the price of Bitcoin was already reaching 19k USD, I've talked to a few PH members about the upcoming correction and it struck me, that the level of optimism has been so high that almost everyone expected a new ATH (all-time high) to happen very soon. Also, a majority of those I spoke to didn't expect a correction to be happening anytime soon.

However, I myself couldn't imagine that the recent BTC price parabolic upward move will continue at its current rate. Luckily for me, at the beginning of this week I've made the decision to move all my little resources to a more stable coin USDT (Tether). Right before the bloodbath took place this thursday. So imagine my relief when I woke up this Thursday morning ...

On Thursday, we've witnessed a heavy BTC drop since 19k usd all the way to 16.5k usd and many of us probably wondered if this is the end of the current correction. Or maybe we should prepare ourselves for an even deeper one?

Let me share my own view and back it up with some personal EXPECTATIONS.

READY FOR ANOTHER DROP?

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At the time of writing this post, the price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize itself at around 17k and an entire market seems to be holding its breath. Trade volumes on coinmarketcap.com dropped from 260mln (just yesterday) to below 150mln right now. THAT'S HUGE!

At the same time, if we look at the volumes and price action on Bitcoin, we may see a very interesting pattern. One that I'm always looking for. One that 9 times out of 10 are ending up with sell-out and price going down:

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Within those few years in the crypto market, I've learned something: whenever prices are growing and volume are slowing down, then most of the time it means that this growth is not strong enough to sustain itself. I like to imagine that the current price growth is moving forward on "fumes". Not long-lasting.

Since yesterday, BTC price went up from 16,4k to 17k, and at the same time volumes dropped from 62mln ... all the way to 33mln. That is MASSIVE. That's almost a 50% volume drop in such a short timeframe. Based on just that simple "analysis", I would expect another heavy drop in BTC price coming soon.

There is also IMPORTANT news that I would like to share with you. One that most of you may have never heard about:

100 mln LIQUIDATED on DeFi Protocol Compound

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It seems to me, that not many people out there are aware of this MASSIVE liquidation which took place this Thursday. I couldn't find even one video on youtube about this topic and the media did not seem to talk much about it either. And yet, I found it to be very important to realize what had just happened.

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In a nutshell: over 100mln usd just simply "vanished" from the market. Simply because those who borrowed FIAT / other crypto using Compound DeFi didn't have deposited collateral large enough. And to make things worse - many seemed to leverage their investments.

So ... those investors are being left with borrowed funds, however they have lost all deposited collateral.

You could read more about it here:
$100 Million Liquidated on Defi Protocol Compound Following Oracle Exploit

Why is it important?

Can you imagine being one of those investors who were affected by this brutal liquidation? How many of them will lose trust towards crypto? How many will walk away from this industry, considering it to be still not mature enough? And most importantly: how to even replace a 100mln USD "hole" which kind of disappeared?

That is HELL OF ALOT OF MONEY. And we can assume that those funds are gone forever. And some investors who lost it, will be gone forever as well.

Also, DeFi has been fueling the cryptospace in 2020 and that massive liquidation may bring much unwanted attention. I wouldn't be surprised if regulators would step in and start regulating DeFi. Especially if similar incidents will repeat itself in the future.

OTHER TERRIFIC NEWS - 1% BITCOIN seized by Chinese police

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Chinese Police Seize 1% of Bitcoin’s Total Supply.

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This is definitely another HUGE news I've learned about just today.

One that may result in a huge wave of FUD in the upcoming days.

According to decrypt.co: "Chinese authorities have seized over $4 billion in crypto assets. The funds were part of a major Ponzi scheme that exploited over two million people. ".

What is important is not only the fact that a huge chunk of crypto has been seized by the police (worth 4 billion usd) but was devastating to learn that 2 million people out there lost all their invested funds. That is devastating and the consequences may be very painful to the market.

How can it not affect markets in a negative way?

MY PERSONAL EXPECTATIONS

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I'm neither a trader nor an expert. So allow me to repeat: this is not financial advice.

However, I do watch several youtube channels managed by people I value. People with knowledge and experience who are sharing their warnings, predictions and expectations. And most seem to agree that we will probably witness BITCOIN falling down to 14-15k USD levels.

Resistance becomes support

There is one more thing that most of those YouTubers also seem to agree on: assuming that BITCOIN would drop below 14-15k level, then we shall expect huge support of around 11-12k USD. Simply because that was previously a so-called "ceiling" and we've experienced solid resistance through the entire month of August.

Those are also my targets. Let me know what are your personal expectations.

SHARE YOUR VIEW and RESTEEM PLEASE

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obraz.pngPlease share your view on the discussed topic.

I read all comments and will place solid upvotes on the most valuable ones.

I would naturally appreciate every single resteem. Help me reach out to more people with this content, as I believe that this is a very important topic and I would like more people to join our discussion.

Yours, Piotr
@project.hope founder

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Hi @crypto.piotr
I like to reflect on this topic not only from the scientific point of view but also the escatological and epistimological aspect.
This will give me more space for my analyze and will let me understand that what is happening is an important part of the truth that is unfolding in front of our very eyes and we are witnesses of a big change with in the process of time and creation and history.

Just before yesterday i watched an interview with a founder of hive and the topic was the recent bitcoin phenomen of rise and fall.
Interesting that one topic was that the Institutions who control the paper money fear to be overrunned by the crypto and that they will do everything possible to get control of it before it is to late for them, means to much individuals is growing in "power" or independence.

We created the virtual reality according to the picture of this world what we are living in. Everything in the net is like in the real world.
And who is lucky to have wittnessed the appearance of the material manifestation of the internet (futureshock) and the possibility of physical access into the net will say yes, if i say that like in the real world, when the modern west was established and started to form all chances and all possibillities where open to everyone it was just depending of somebodys knowlegde about the thing how much power someone will get in small time.
The developers where working on ways of interfaces and more structure in order to cause traffic and with the traffic comes the business.
I am lucky i am born 1971.
One of the jounger examples is the goldrush.
I say that what happened during the Gold Rush and brought to anybody riches suddenly of course with greater suffering but things depend naturally on evolution, to day one have to suffer spiritually to get the same from the virtual world in the hope to transfer the gained into the present world and fullfill with it one selfs dream.
Forcelabour start to vanish more and more so control on the masses is getting out of hand
I do not think this kind of currency (crypto) is going to vanish but it is that someone start to put his hand in play, the same someone who brought similar changes which led to enslavement and poverty in everywhere.
After the infrastructure of the crypto seems to be well established and thanks to all developers starts to be accessable to anybody in the world, we see in this moment history repeating itself again and we might be wittnesses of an event that was prophecised 1400 years ago by the prophet Mohammed sas and 2000 years ago by Jesus as, he, Jesus was the one who drove the moneylenders out of the temple.
Just to understand those who put their hand in play, nothing has changed !
It will not be a change of crypto in my view but there will be a kind of new crypto or someone take control of an existing one in order to force all the others under him.
Thats now the task for crypto experts and traiders with insight to figure out the intentions and the goals in accordance with the worldwide political situation, and we focus in this case just on global politics, because the topic is "who will rule the world", you will might see and find out how this surely coming take over will take place, it is a long time existing plan.
And what nobody want to believe is the fact that soon there will be no paper money. [hygenical dictatorship orders it in order to reduce infection risks ?!]
As to say i respect a secular view on things, but after good 50 years of life experience i say, that who not see a spiritual world now, he will never see it.
May God the creator protect all of us of what we not know and what we not see, because he sees everything, and he gave permission for some time.
This is my personal view on things and it is part of my reality.
You can listen and think about it or correct me if i am wrong.
Best greetings @berlin61

 3 years ago 

Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @berlin61

I appreciate it a lot.

Do you write about topics related to technology and blockchain? Check out our community and consider subscribing and joining us: https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254

Yours, Piotr

 3 years ago 

It's me again @berlin61

Just before yesterday i watched an interview with a founder of hive and the topic was the recent bitcoin phenomen of rise and fall.

With HIVE founder? wow.
Could you share link to this interview?

Hi @crypto.piotr, historically it has been found that after an increase in the ascending slope of the BTC (rise) comes a resounding fall, and this can be analyzed in great depth by financial market statisticians, making their corresponding predictions, certainly the months of December and January register big movements in the stock market and crypto assets do not escape from it.

In the case of the influence of this behavior of abrupt rises and falls on large investors, it is to be believed that they will be very afraid of risking investing in a market that on many scales its behavior cannot be predicted with certainty and results in a retraction of the investments placed, logically.
I particularly think that we are still in full development of a financial market aimed at crypto assets that has not yet consolidated enough to gain the absolute confidence of large investors, the behaviors and trends, the variables that positively influence and negatively in the upward or downward movements of the BTC price, you have to spend a lot of time identifying which are these sinternal and external variables to properly predict the feasibility or positive return that an investment (broadly speaking) can leave you in this market .

I had my successes and mistakes at the time when I witnessed for the first time a succulent rise in BTC and in a short time a resounding fall that left a market depressed for a long time there between 2016 and 2017.

These topics are very extensive and deserve to be included as an academic subject in the university, finances are not square and here is a new vertex to explore.

See you soon

 3 years ago 

Thanks for dropping by and sharing your thoughts @tocho2

I absolutely appreciate it.

ps. I've seen your first post within PH. I already bookmarked it and will read tomorrow with fresh brain.

Cheers, Piotr

What happened a few days ago (price drop) was a simple culmination of a trend where a large number of traders opened long positions. Anyone who has watched this knows that for a long time the so-called funding rates (a mechanism enabling perpetual futures contracts) have been in the plight of shorters. Open long positions thus paid significantly for short positions.
And basically, as always in such a situation, came the long squeeze (understand it as price drop). The drop in price began to liquidate longs (those with the largest leverage at first), which are then sold at the market price during liquidation, which again creates pressure on sales, which eliminates other longs with lower leverage.
So here we simply have a situation where some of the traders turned into a huge greed (see Fear & Greed index and it previous numbers!) and logically this correction subsequently fell on them.
Fundamentally nothing changes at all. The interest in BTC is huge from all sides (banks, institutions, PayPal, ...) and the network has been showing perfect numbers practically all year round. Prediction and technical analysis are priceless, we are going to the unexplored territory over 20,000 USD. According to fundamental data, there is no reason to panic or fear. The development of ecosystems, advancing adoption and spreading awareness will lead to gradual growth.
Buying BTC now? Only as part of a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. Alternatively, at levels around 13k, where the 20-week moving average is, which served as a reflection of the bull run in 2017.
Selling BTC now? I wouldn't recommend it either. The chances that you will panic with repurchase at prices above 20k are higher than that the price will go down to your purchase levels.

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20 week MA as a support in the last bull market should serve as a support now as well

 3 years ago 

Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @ritxi

I appreciate it a lot.

You're welcome :-)

Hola @crypto.piotr, aquí dejo mi opinión, espero se entienda la traducción. Hasta luego.

On the web we can get many experts who claim to predict the price accurately, but more than 90% are wrong since they only rely on statistics of the moment and try to guess, although this is already known, what I mean is that there is a great difficulty in predicting what can happen since something simple or something unforeseen can affect either positively or negatively the price, For example, the movement of whales, perhaps people who store large quantities with experience in the market know how to handle the ups and downs, but those who are starting do not know how to handle this type of situation, logically there is always a peak and a down, but the detail is to know what is the maximum rise.

Now speaking of the low volume is normal that some people are forbidden to buy for fear of losing, but there are always those who believe they will make a profit (believe that there will be a higher price) and not just buy.

Personally, when I began to buy cryptocurrency, I sold at a profit in the upside and bought again in the downside, so my amount of coins increased.

In my country there are many traders who earn by the day, the same day they buy below the value and sell above it, keeping the dollar and they do it regardless of the price of the cryptocurrency. This fear of losing does not exist in them, I believe that they have learned not to limit themselves due to the situation, because in my country, day by day we see how the dollar has more value than the national currency that one day can have a value per dollar of 100,000 and the next day 1,000,000. There is nothing to lose, this has worked for me, I have obtained profits by being risky, something that perhaps in another part of the world they would not understand.

 3 years ago 

Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @tanhunter254

I appreciate it a lot.

Do you write about topics related to technology and blockchain? Check out our community and consider subscribing and joining us: https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254

Yours, Piotr

Greetings @crypto.piotr very important information you provide us, although I am not an expert on the subject of crypto-currencies I would like to share my opinion about it:

As far as small investors are concerned, a scam of such magnitude would obviously end up distancing them from the digital markets and would generate distrust in them, although it is good news that they have somehow harmed the fraudsters who move under the magnifying glass of this very volatile market.

In correspondence with the fluctuation in the prices and volumes of bitcoin, those of us who are starting out in this world undoubtedly expect the bullfighting that was looming in some predictions and that would end up giving a boost to the small crypto-currencies of the block chains to which we are immersed day by day. With the readjustment that you mention to us the resistance that now would be supported, it will be the base from my opinion to have a bullish attack, I believe the setback what I was looking for was to take out of the game many of the small investors, because the digital market is very manipulable by the big investors. Thanks for the information, we continue reading
 3 years ago 

BIG THX you for sharing your thoughts @madridbg
Solid upvote on the way :)

Hope to see you posting more often withing PH. Cheers

What can I say? all these were mere expectations as people were already expecting a correction but you didn't come earlier. In fact most major exchanges were running contacts for people to predict when BTC will totally fit 20k. But is actually do things happen.

The little resources I had was when it was 14 k and I saw it rise up to 19 k and for back to 16.5 so technically I'm not the losing.

The truth is that everybody is responsible for their money and crypto is majorly a decision each and every person should personally take.

As for the prices, I believe this is only the beginning 2021 would actually signal a whole lot of bull.

at the end of the day YouTube videos are YouTube videos and the market will actually be the market and nobody can actually 100% say what will happen.
Trust your gut and make your own decisions yourself and thanks for sharing it was enlightening to read.

 3 years ago 

As always - I very much appreciate your comment @josediccus
Cheers buddy :)

You're welcome, 2021 will be exciting, that I know

Sure, there will be corrections. And sure, there will be investors who lose when the price drops. But, as the past few days should make evident, the prices of all reputable cryptocurrencies will continue to rise.

Right now, the price has surpassed $19,700. So the correction / drop to the $16,000 level was temporary and short-lived.

As you state, you were "lucky" when you transferred all your funds to USDT. But, that next morning, did you then turn around and transfer them all BACK to where they came from. If so, you could have made a nice little profit. If not, then by today (Tuesday 1 December), you are right back to where you started from.

There will continue to be many corrections and many fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos. But the trend is clearly upwards, further and further upwards ... up, up, and away.

Therefore, those corrections and spikes and tanks and fluctuations don't bother me. I notice them and I even track them, but I do not try to play them. Nor do I try to trade them for short-term profits. I just watch them as they rise.

Granted, they do not rise continuously, and they do not rise in a straight line. Such movement is unnatural and impossible to sustain. So, I watch the dips and the corrections, always keeping in mind that the trend is upwards.

And, while some investors and traders might get burned and therefore might abandon cryptos, that's nothing to worry about. Major institutional investors, including PayPal, are making major investments into Bitcoin.

That bodes very well for both the short-term future and the long-term prospects of cryptos.

Onwards, to the moon!

 3 years ago 

BIG THX you for sharing your thoughts @majes.tytyty
Solid upvote on the way :)

ps. hope to see you being more active within PH in the future. Missing you here buddy

 3 years ago 

Hello, dearest Professor.
I do miss you.

When will you come back?

Hello and greetings! I would like to give my thoughts as requested about your post, it was informative to read your perspective and I appreciate the time you took to share..

When it comes to Bitcoin I feel the community that has been adopted has no clue that the very adoption itself is the value, and the reasons most people adopt are drawn to it is by way of the price going up and down. There are no other uses cases from what I read or see other than the network marketing or MLM scene that has found a use case for it by using it instead of FIAT currency on ponzi structures, which has brought regulators since the community found ways to use Bitcoin illegally.

The principles of Bitcoin that is mostly overlooked as value is that it is ownerless, decentralized, and to earn you do not need to invest but contribute to the protocol with mining or being a node. That is somewhat oversaturated as of now, but the principles still apply. More can be built upon these principles rather than using old logic on new innovations.

To one that looks at the price of bitcoin rising and falling.. where can you find the proof of it's value?

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 3 years ago 

Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @wisetoken

I appreciate it a lot.

Do you write about topics related to technology and blockchain? Check out our community and consider subscribing and joining us: https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254

Yours, Piotr

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