Pareto and the Beasts: If anyone could do it

in OCD4 years ago (edited)

I have some questions, though I might pretend they are rhetorical and do not require answers since everyone is looking at the STEEM price charts at the moment.

  1. What is your greatest personal skill?
  2. Do you think it is valuable for you in some way?
  3. Would you think it valuable if most people could do it?

While you are considering those and preparing your well-thought-out answers and maybe even fashioning your own post in order to delve deep into your skill and surrounding psychology and economic position on supply, demand and scarcity...

Anyway...

I was thinking about this after reading some comments between @smooth and @pharesim concerning content rewards and other matters. What I was wondering about is the distribution of Steem throughout the platform and as they mentioned, the spread to the tail - something I agree with, and I am not in the tail regarding rewards. If you want to read an interesting look at what I consider improving reward distribution over the last year, here is one from Asher today.

So, while not in the tail myself, I do think that there should be spread to the tail, however, I do not think that it should be blindly so. What I mean by this is that in my opinion, the economics of scarcity when it comes to the value of for instance, a token, also applies to content.

Yes, quality is subjective and currently it is near impossible to know what is value adding to the Steem community, but content scarcity is still a thing. For example, there was something like 6000 top-level posts today, with "top-level" referring to them being main posts, not a grading scale. Most likely, many of those posts would be considered barrel-scrapers, in the same way that most social content is.

There is nothing wrong with low-quality posts, but no where online are those kinds of posts valuable unless the person posting them already has a significant following. What that means is, the post doesn't have value, the audience does. I have written about the network and access to it being the value component in social media before and here is one I have found from relatively recently.

But, on Steem and in a small community that offers the possibility for earning on contributions, it is natural that there are going to be barriers to getting that contribution. Can your roll your tongue? Should I get paid for doing what 65-80% of people can do with ease?

Essentially, anyone with legs can kick a football, it doesn't mean football fans want to see just "anyone with legs" play at Wembley. Top-level (quality) football players are very scarce in comparison to the billion-strong audience of football fans willing to pay to watch them, buy merchandise and stab people who barrack for opposing teams.

Now, when it comes to the quality of a football player, it s a little less subjective as there are physical and observable traits that fall into consideration. This is not the case with content on Steem and while there might be people who are fantastic at putting together a book report, it doesn't mean that they are going to engage the general public, or the voting public.

So, since anyone can post anything freely on Steem, no one is forced to actually vote upon it, let alone anyone with stake who is likely more discerning with where their value goes as it affects their held token value. This means that when @smooth votes on @burnpost, he is making a decision that for example, this post is not worth more than what he thinks the use case of burnpost is. And that is a fair call considering his probable personality (as I have observed but can't be certain), as he cannot know for sure if this post adds or subtracts value, but he does know that reducing inflation is likely to add value. No guarantees in this life though.

But, it is up to each individual to decide where their stake goes, and it is up to each individual to decide if they want to redirect stake away from content through downvotes too. While some people will redirect away from content that goes over a certain value, I think that what they should also be considering is where else that value is going to go.

While I cannot know for sure, I wold predict that there is a little bit of Pareto principle in play here in regards to Steem rewards. This is a chart from Asher's post that shows that while the top 10 take 8% of the rewards, the top 500 take 56%. This is the results from the week before the end of the month (I think)

I asked Asher to get me the number of accounts for 80% and for the end of January, there were 1245 accounts that took 80% of the Steem. In the last 24 hours there have been about 5400 posts. We can assume tat the higher earners are also consistently posting multiple times a week and that the posts per day is relatively static. This means that

1245/5400 = 23%

So, that is pretty damn close, isn't it? While the Pareto principle isn't in play for all account, if we look at it from the side of those that are active, it is close enough - in fact the distribution might be a touch better than the 80:20 rule, but I will let Asher play with that later and use the caveat that this is working under some assumptions.

The Pareto principle pops up all over the place and in many companies it will be observable that for example, 20% of the client list provides 80% of the revenue. While I cannot know for certain, would this also mean that 20% of the content in say, a library, gets 80% of the borrows, or 20% of the movies movies on Netflix get 80% of the audience?

The "Top 20%" likely appears all over the place and when it comes to rolling the tongue, it is actually those who can't do it who have the scarcer trait. And this raises the questions from the start of this piece again.

What is your skill, do you think it valuable and, how scarce is it?

If you think it is valuable that is fantastic and you should do it all you can, but if it isn't scarce and many can offer the same, it is unlikely to be seen as valuable by others.

Now, I don't know if this post is valuable enough for @smooth, but perhaps it gives others some ideas to think on about how content creation affects content rewards as it appears, there is a 20% rule in play. Remember though, quality is not the only metric that goes into the value of content on or off Steem, in the same way that if someone likes Brad Pitt, they are more likely to pay to see one of his movies than someone who doesn't like him. The movie quality itself might not be the top of the hierarchy when making that decision, nor might it factor heavily in whether they liked the movie or not after seeing it. That cuts both ways of course.

Are you a Top 20% contributor - could you be?

Well, if anyone could do it...

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]

Onboarding

Note: @abh12345 gets 10% of the rewards for pulling the numbers for me. Thanks mate.

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There is nothing wrong with low-quality posts, but no where online are those kinds of posts valuable unless the person posting them already has a significant following.

Ibwas contemplating how to express this in words the other day when @acidyo was moving to turn @ocd amd #posh into something based on quality of tweet. I like to think my content is decent, but my social media following isn't.
I think that truly skilled curators and authors are rarely the same individual. We all have strengths. Nothing wrong with practicing to become great, but amateurs usually don't get paid as much as pros.

As a famous pedophile once said:

if I can see it, then I can do it. If I believe it, there's nothing to it.

It s a hard line to find, as while there should be a lot of engagement around some content, there should also be the meat an audience can think their teeth into also, the kind of thing that keeps them here and willing to actually invest into. If all the content can be found elsewhere, why be here? this changes somewhat with a much larger user and audience base.

That is an interesting thought, you are right. It reminds me of a war that happened here about a year ago. Someone had posted a link and bid it up in a noble effort to preserve the url for eternity. Ha could you imagine how quickly that would get downvoted today?

Rather than cross post to Twitter, post tweets to Steem and bot them into Trending :D

Using Steem to promote and boost your Twitter following ~

Actually I hope this becomes a thing, but not just for Twitter.
I guess if you tag appropriately, don't make it too spammy, and send it all to null or steem.dao, no one will mind.

I just bought a 100sbd bid on this post in honor of Tweeting a thank you to my my local post office encouraging their efforts to deliver the mail rain or shine!

Wouldn't that be something to see in Trending! :D

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Your minds seems like a deep abyss of diverse and wise information presented in a professional and well-written form... so much so that I'm starting to think you've gained access to a larger % of your brain than the rest of us. Are you half man and half machine? I'm 23% jealous. How do you keep this up, work, and raise your family?

and raise your family?

They raise themselves ;D

Nah, it is likely that because I have done so many quite different things in my life with a large selection of people, patterns click. On steem, the challenge was to get thoughts onto the page with some level of coherence - still working on that daily.

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I am here to tell you that you are not alone in wondering how he does this. I wish I can time manage like this or at least think like this for a month only! My life would be hella changed :D

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That took some reading. Your posts and then the the comments on Ashers post. All the numbers are there, the one that seems to be being ignored is the retention number. 31 Jan 2019=12,045 Authors / 31 Jan 2020=6,326. Almost a 50% loss.

I have no earth shattering skills, nothing really that would make me stand out in a crowd. Content scarcity has been growing on SBC for the last year. The price of steem has fallen during the loss of content for the last year. The EIP hard fork has not helped retain content producers. The army of meaningless down vote bots has not helped retain content producers. The increased curation efforts has not helped retain content producers. So does burnpost help retain content producer? Has anything done during the last year helped retain content producers?

I understand the want and the desire to have the highest quality content available to be viewed and voted on by those who see themselves as investors, I understand their desire to make the most of their investment. They need to start investigating why retention is failing on SBC. Why are people not producing as much content as they were in the past. Eventually there will only be the highest quality content on the Steem Block Chain, because there will only be 10 people making content.

There is hope the SMT's are going to change that and bring more people to SBC, there was hope that the Steem Alliance which is still in the process of forming was going to be able to get real world advertising out there. There is, among a few a desire to piggy back their personal agendas on to the SMT Hard fork. SMT hard fork needs to stand alone, no add on's. Steem Alliance needs to be prepared to hit the streets before the HF for SMT's goes into testing, and need to get the advertising campaign ready to roll.

I know a lot of people still on SBC think the EIP was a boon to Steem, but was it? In some respects yes, in some respects no. It certainly did not bring people to SBC, it certainly did not keep people on SBC. I hope the experiment I joined is not going to end any time soon.

Running short on time this morning and will likely come back to this later, but will add some notes here now.

All the numbers are there, the one that seems to be being ignored is the retention number.

Yep, retention is kind of a problem, but not that much. The numbers have never been great and a great amount of the posting accounts were actually alts, and as price fell, they became too "expensive" to keep posting on - not worth the effort. Funnily, some have fired back up again recently. Like Kingscrown's - he has quite a few and votes religiously on himself :D

Eventually there will only be the highest quality content on the Steem Block Chain, because there will only be 10 people making content.

I don't think so. It will be similar to all the other medias rolled into one, it is just that some will stand out more than others. With 500 hours of YT videos uploaded every minute, who actually watches most of it? No one. Same on Medium and likely reddit too. There are bits of random content and a small group of creators that get traction though, and draw viewers.

I know a lot of people still on SBC think the EIP was a boon to Steem, but was it?

It wasn't about bringing people, it was about balancing the economics. If anything, it was designed to get rid of a few people. You might see from those charts of Ashes in the comment section to me, that January 2019 compared to 2020, the only account in the top 20 earners that is the same is Steemcleaners.

I hope you have/had a good day at work. I really do not see the slow death of SBC, but I would like to see more emphasis on the part of the "Investors" or the Developer team working more on retention vice driving a wedge between the users/the investors/the content consumers/ the creators.

Retention really needs to be looked at, SMT Communities may help, but dreams of on boarding a lot of people need to be met with retaining those new users.

I did see the shift in the top 20 accounts, but I also saw the shift in the number of active authors, a 50% decrease. I think this user ID Number means I was number 291,360 to join SBC via Steemit. If so that means that 285360 are no longer active on SBC.

I do understand what the purpose of the EIP HF was for, but as when it was being proposed, and as people were talking about it, and urging greater safe guards, it would seem that some of the down vote pool fears are seeing the light of day. We have one down vote army, maybe two now I am not sure, and we have people renting//leasing trying to bully accounts into this or into that, first bulling action was against Pal-net users, then came SBI investors, and then against Asher, yourself, your brother, and others and those that comment on your post and theirs, and now trying to influence and bully people into withdrawing their support of witnesses. All of these down vote retaliation accounts that people/the community can do nothing about.

I hope the SMT hard fork does not get hijacked by the "we need this too" crowd and that it stands as only an SMT hard fork.

On the first comment:

.. the one that seems to be being ignored is the retention number. 31 Jan 2019=12,045 Authors / 31 Jan 2020=6,326. Almost a 50% loss.

I didn't raise it but certainly raised an eyebrow at the 50% drop. Pretty sure that will pick up soon, in line with price.

I certainly hope it picks back up a little bit, so far the last two major forks 19 and 20 do not seem to have helped much in the retention arena. That is why I am really hoping that steemdev's can avoid the calls to add this or add that to the SMT hard fork and hold to their guns on it being only an SMT hard fork.

Yeah I'm with you on that. SMT is key for Steem to remain something different imo, and I hope this year they appear with a bang.

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Cheers :)

23% is pretty damn close isn't it.

@burnpost, for me, is better than sharing out to the tail who are producing little of value. I actually class a couple of my alts in the above, but they are quietly earning S-E tokens, which i think is a fair approach to take.

With other tokens, it is pretty fair game considering they are in a centralized environment. It is up to the owners to decide how they handle it all.

Not sure if I am a contributor as I am yet to get out of the 'under a dollar posts'. Actually, communities like OCD and Curangel are the reason I am getting whatever I am getting currently.

Also. I claim that I am a poet and a writer but a zillion souls can do such with ease.

What I am certain about all of it is that I will stay at it. I will keep on producing the 'best content' I can to my abilities. Whether the community takes time to notice or not, this journey continues.

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