The probability of the federal funds rate pause surged.. 😲

Several days ago, the probability was around 60%. However, it turns out the increase after the below news.

It seems that after 10 years bond yield increased, they implied the federal funds rate pause. Well, I thought the probability of the interest rate pause would decrease. Cause, the Israel-Hamas war is being expanded and oil prices surged. So, I thought it would be burdens for global economies with respect to the inflation.

However, financial markets were not affected much. You know, the previous period when the Bitcoin(BTC) faced the interest rate pause in the first half of 2019 was bullish.(≈+450%) Of course, we're not able to say it will follow the pattern. But, the datas can't be ignored.