Daily Return by phase of Global Cycle

China's economic growth was under pressure due to the COVID-19 lockdown policy in 2022. As a result, the world economy's growth was lower than expected, and a significant inventory level was maintained in the last quarter of 2022. Currently, the economic environment is such that the U.S. economy is slightly overheated while China is preparing for expansion after the economic lockdown.

This situation has caused a delay in the cycle, and the demand is accelerating with limited extra economic growth. If China expands its demand more than its supply, the world economy will once again face a shortage of supply, and we will see high commodity profits.

Source: Goldmann Sachs