How often have you had a "KAWOOOOOM" in your feed - and even more importantly - how often did you not get one because he was wrong?
This is a brief analysis of a random sample of @haejin's predictions and it would be very nice of you @josefstalin @berniesanders, if you and your friends/sockpuppets could stay away and refrain from downvoting this or other posts I have written. Thank you very much, I appreciate it.
In the heated debates of the past days, one side claimed @haejin to be a genius of technical analysis and others called him a fraud who is "raping the reward pool". There was extensive flagging, counter flagging, mean words and now I think there is a cold war between the fractions, because @haejin got himself enough Steem Power to fend off all attacks.
Anyway, in all this it seems nobody seemed to care which side was actually right. Besides the matter of getting too many rewards out of the pool, another issue - the one that triggered everything - has never been looked at. It just has been assumed:
Is @haejin actually a really good analyst who deserves the attention, praise and upvotes - or is he just "some Chinese YouTuber with a million 15 year old fans" who see him as their Saviour as a Steemian stated in a telling crypto-racist outburst in a chat room.
What I analyzed and what needs to be considered
Since he has quite a large output I only took 20 random posts from November for which I looked into what they are predicting and then compared it with what happened since. I rated all predictions with a number between zero and three, whereas three means "hit the nail on the head" and zero "missed it completely".
Of course there are a couple of weaknesses with this specific sample and rating:
- It's a short period and his performance could have been influenced by special factors in this time.
- He possibly changed his method since.
- There is a very strong correlation between interest rate hikes of the Federal Reserve and the volatility/price of crypto currencies, which is relevant from December 14th onwards.
- Often predictions don't have a specific date and some predictions are still in the future.
- Maybe I made a mistake or two when comparing predictions and outcomes.
Overall, I think my rating method is reliable and it does give us a broad overview over @haejin's performance as analyst.
Here is the result of the sample for @haejin's performance
- Each four times, it was three and zero: This means he was equally often fully correct and fully off from what happened.
- Two times it was a one: This means, he got the general direction right, but was still too far off the target.
- 10 times it was a two: A two means that he got both the direction and the timing about right, but still missed the target.
The average value comes out at 1.7, which is pretty good as I think.
What you can see in the table below is a column with the views the specific post has. In the recent time, @haejin has more than 10,000 views on every article, whereas in November as you can see his average was only around 1,000. To me this is a strong indicator that he is winning readers and not scamming the system by just pretending to have so many who read his content.
The continuously growing readership also takes away the allegation that his predictions might be mere self-fulfilling prophecies. Unless he had a powerful trader in the beginning reading his posts - or is one himself, it looks like his analysis was already excellent before all the attention.
My bottom-line is: You can be for or against caps on payouts and debate the way this should be enforced, but you can't claim @haejin is some half-smart Chinese YouTube-kiddie-wannabe having the luck of his life. And if that's the case, he should buy a lottery ticket.
The list with the sample I looked at
PS: Personally, the only thing about @haejin that would frighten me...
is if he wasn't some lucky Chinese YouTuber, but the virtual front-desk of the North Korean government trying to play the crypto market.
Let me know what you think about it in the comments!!
Now do the same but pick 20 random coins from the same time period. Pick coin with market cap as low as the lowest haejin picked. I find your analysis bias as most coins performed quite well on the November-December run
Pick them for me please and I will take a look at them.
Such an analysis is a bit strange in a market where everything goes up and it would be much more interesting to see if he gets the ones right that are going down. But his output is just too big as that I am willing to dig myself through it.
In terms of the bias, I mentioned the FED interest hike, which was disruptive to the entire market. @haejin is surely not perfect and an indicator that his abilities are limited is his take on Bitcoin Gold, the only bigger crypto that did not start flying (see the list).
But his record still is excellent.
I missed the fed comment you are right. Also, i dont question haejin's abilities, i have seen his videos of Elliott waves and have helped a lot. I just have the hypothesis mos of the coins performed well during that time period. For picks just take five from top 100 five from 100-200 according to market cap. Lets see 7, 20, 32, 76, 81. The others 103, 165, 120, 109, 166. I dont know which ones they are just the number.
Your table is off a little bit.
ups, thx for that, it's corrected. Turns out, finding the dates on a website that uses "2 weeks ago" as time-stamp is virtually impossible.^^
I agreed and like your post thanks for sharing dear...