Statistical Analysis Wednesday 12th September

Today will be my final Post

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Doncaster 1.50

7/4 Khaadem, 4/1 Converter, 9/2 Alfie Solomons,
11/2 Yousini, 6/1 Swissterious, 11/1 Fares Kodiac,
16/1 Walkman.

6f Conditions race
Run on Good to Soft ground

Horses sired by Swiss Spirit
Running over 6f or more
On Ground softer than good
Have so far recorded a 0-50 record
Those running over 6f were 0-32
SWISSTERIOUS has this problem
CONVERTER also shares this problem
I don't see him getting home
He is the joint least experienced
FARES KODIAC also has just 1 run
Most of his rivals have more

ALFIE SOLOMONS has 7 career starts
He is the most experienced horse
Past winners had 2 0 2 3 1 2 4 1 7 3 runs
Whilst a winner has won this with 7 runs
Horses with 5 or more runs were just 1-37
ALFIE SOLOMONS may be a bit exposed
And unproven on the ground is risky
Something could improve past him
YOUSINI has a chance if handling the ground

KHAADEM looks the strongest option
Both well backed and well entered up
Expensive type at 750k
I'd be reluctant to oppose him

Selection

KHAADEM 5/4 -11/8

Win Bet

Carlisle 2.00

5/2 Rampant Lion, 9/2 Mustaqbal, 5/1 Im Dapper Too,
5/1 Power Sail, 8/1 Abushamah, 10/1 Kenmare River,
10/1 Majeste, 12/1 Westward Ho, 100/1 Jackhammer.

8f Handicap

Given this is now heavy ground
I would turn away from the horses
Who have lacked a few recent runs

Runs in 2018

13 Abushamah
7 Mustaqbal
6 Majeste
6 Kenmare River
6 Jackhammer
5 Power Sail
3 Im Dapper Too
3 Rampant Lion
1 Westward Ho

Happy oppose these horses
I'M DAPPER TOO is short of runs
RAMPANT LION has this disadvantage
WESTWARD HO lacks fitness
JACKHAMMER is outclassed

POWER SAIL has 5 runs this year
Probably enough but not my choice
He is only a 3 year old
Takes on older horses on unproven ground
KENMARE RIVER is a 3yo
Hammered last time not safe enough
MAJESTE has to prove stamina
Has to prove he will like this ground
Since downgrading stables last year
He has not yet captured his 3yo form

Shortlist

ABUSHAMAH
MUSTAQBAL

Most runs this year
Both proven over 8f on soft/heavy
Hard to stake as I like both

Selection

£4.50 Each Way MUSTAQBAL 9/2

£1.00 Win Bet ABUSHAMAH 10/1

Doncaster 3.00

5/2 Global Applause, 11/4 El Astronaute,
100/30 Final Venture, 8/1 Encore D'Or,
8/1 Under The Covers, 20/1 Haddaf,
50/1 Wings Of The Rock.

Scarbrough Stakes
5f Listed race

HADDAF is a 3 year old
He is the only horse with a penalty
I don't see him giving weight to all of these

The recent 3yo winners had 8 10 9 runs
Horses aged 3 with over 10 runs
Have a 0-22 record since the 1999 race
HADDAF fails this with 17 runs

WINDS OF THE ROCK is a 3yo filly
Not safe enough with 88 days off
UNDER THE COVERS is an older mare
Female horses aged 4 or more
Have a 0-26 record in the last 20 renewals
She has never won in this class before

Shortlist

FINAL VENTURE has a chance
The Beverley race he comes from
Is a weak trial but the 2010 winner did it

GLOBAL APPLAUSE is interesting
Male 4 year olds score well in this
My main worry is 1 run in 117 days

Past winners Aged 4 +
Runs since June that season
4 3 3 4 2 2 7 3 1
Most winners had more than 1 run
In the 3 months before this race
The 2008 winner had 1 run since June
None have since and he was older
GLOBAL APPLAUSE has 1 run since June
In fairness to him he won 11 days ago
In a Career best Racing Post Rating

ENCORE D'OR won this last year
Had a better prep race in 2017 though
If I look at horses aged 6 or more
Those absent more than 17 days
Have a 1-34 record in this race
I'd have liked a more recent run
7 of the 9 runners have shorter absences

EL ASTRONAUTE is a smart sprinter
He has the best last time out numbers
Difficult to argue he should go close
He has raced 5 times since May 26th
Global Applause raced once in this period
Against him is the slower ground
His best runs have been on faster

If I look at the sires in this race
Who have bred 5f winners
In Listed or Group races
On ground softer than good
EL ASTRONAUTE's sire has not bred one
GLOBAL APPLAUSE's sire has not yet either

ENCORE D'OR won this on soft last year
That gets him a role as a cheap saver

Playing the race this way

Small Stakes

Gone very cold on this race

£7.00 Win FINAL VENTURE 5/1

£2.00 Win EL ASTRONAUTE 7/1

£1.00 Win ENCORE D'OR 9/1

Doncaster 3.35

5/1 Zeshov, 8/1 Cheeky Rascal, Lady Alavesa,
8/1 Placebo Effect, Ventura Gold, 10/1 Central City,
11/1 Cadeau Magnifique, Laqab, 12/1 Detachment,
12/1 Fink Hill, 14/1 Fleetfoot Jack, 16/1 Assimile,
20/1 Luna Bear, Mudawwan, 25/1 Ginger Jack,
25/1 Traveller, 33/1 Hammer Gun, Tavener,
50/1 Young John.

8f Classified Stakes race
For former Jockeys

Rarely done this race
Looks quite intimidating

Racing Post Ratings
Last Time Out

ZESHOV 79
Ventura Gold 74
Lady Alavesa 71
Others 68 or less

ZESHOV is 5lbs clear
On last time out Racing Post Ratings
He also has the most recent race
That was only 5 days ago

ZESHOV has 3 runs since August
Very few of these can say the same
ZESHOV is the fittest horse

8 renewals of this race

Horses aged 3 have struggled
They have a combined 1-28 record

Horses aged 3 beaten last time 0-25
Horses aged 3 under 22 runs are 0-27

CHEEKY RASCAL is a 3yo
He has to drop down 2f
He has never raced over 8f before
One think he has in his favour
His jockey has been riding this year

LADY ALAVESA is a 3yo filly
She will do well to win absent 47 days
PLACEBO EFFECT is also a 3yo
Stall 19 is not a good draw for him

HAMMER GUN is unlikely to be fit enough
LUNA BEAR is a filly
She looks underaced this season
FLEETWOOD JACK has an absence and bad draw

VENTURA GOLD has a chance
But he is 3 and not the best age
And ridden by Luke Harvey as well !
MUSAWWAN beatable from his draw

CADEAU MAGNIFIQUE is a 6yo
I can not rule him out
But has a poor 1-26 strike rate
His only win was in a tiny field
Can we rely on him in a big one

CENTRAL CITY is a 3yo
Coming from 6f he is not safe

You'd think a fit jockey was important
Only 2 jockeys in this race
Have been riding this year

CHEEKY RASCAL's jockey
DETACHMENT's jockey

I want DETACHMENT on side
He was 4th in this last year
Having been off 120 days beforehand
One of the safest jockeys on board

I am playing it this way

£4.00 Each Way ZESHOV 6/1

£1.00 Win DETACHMENT 11/1

£1.00 Win CHEEKY RASCAL 7/1

Listowel 4.20

13/2 Jury Duty, 7/1 Blazer, Snow Falcon, 8/1 Rogue Angel,
12/1 A Rated, Peregrine Run, Slowmotion, Timiyan, 14/1 Call It Magic,
14/1 Dell' Arca, Haymount, Oscar Knight, Shantou Village,
16/1 Bishops Road, Vieux Morvan, 20/1 Townshend,
25/1 Bay Of Freedom, Saturnas.

Kerry National

3m Handicap Chase

Number of Chase runs

43 Rogue Angel
32 Thunder And Roses
25 Wounded Warrior
22 Bishops Road
16 Oscar Knight
13 Townshend
12 Slowmotion
12 All Hell Let Loose
11 Shantou Village
11 Call It Magic
9 Haymount
8 Jury Duty - Peregrine Run
8 Dell' Arca - Bay Of Freedom
7 Snow Falcon - A Rated - Timiyan
6 Saturnas - Blazer

Pattern Class Handicap Chases
Rarely go to very exposed horses
At least not in the last 4 seasons

I would prefer under 15 Chase runs
Happy to oppose the following horse
Who if running do look too exposed

Rogue Angel - Thunder And Roses
Wounded Warrior - Bishops Road
Oscar Knight

ALL HELL LET LOSE ran 3 days ago
Didn't run well enough to consider

Fitness is important in this race
Past winners had the following absences
26 38 3 20 19 19 46 17 48 24 19
You want a run within 7 weeks
The last 18 winners ran within 7 weeks

BAY OF FREEDOM has 98 days off
He has just 1 bad run since last February

The last 18 winners of this race
Were all rated 148 or lower

16 of the last 17 winners of this
Were rated under 141 as well
The only one rated higher in recent years
Was a repeat winner in 2011 rated 148

Official ratings of recent winners

139 128 133 126 130 117 148 137 140 135
127 127 133 126 117 130 123 111 128 112

JURY DUTY has a rating of 152
Much higher than all previous winners
He has a lot of weight for a 7 year old
And just 1 run now in the last 141 days
He is not safe on breeding stats either
I wouldn't bet him with topweight

PELEGRINE RUN is also rated 152
I find it harder to rule him out
He is older and fitter and running well
But he is drifting badly
Connections not confident on the ground

SNOW FALCON is rated 148
16 of the last 17 were rated under 141
He has raced just once in 152 days now
Not the safest of profiles
He also has a few too many hurdle runs

DELL'ARCA has more hurdle runs too
Don't see him up to this grade

A RATED is a 7yo
He's raced once in 104 days now
I'd have preferred more off a rating of 143
When 16 of the last 17 were rated under 141

CALL IT MAGIC may not be fit enough
SATURNUS needs a career best
He is rated higher than almost all winners

TOWNSHEND didn't appeal much
Hammered on the flat last time out
He has never raced beyond 2m 4f
If you look at his sire Lord of England
He's never bred a winner beyond 2m 4f

HAYMOUNT is rated 144
Thats a big high but forgivable
His last run on Racing Post Ratings
Was a joint career best which is interesting
My worry would be he has other targets

TIMIYAN has 54 days off
Thats longer than the last 18 winners
Only by a few days though
Happy to overlook those extra days
As his last run was a career best
Racing Post Ratings of 145 last time
Makes him look well treated off 132
His best run after being sent over 3m +
Expensive horse could now offer more

BLAZER has raced once in 164 days
That race was over hurdles as well
This is his first run out of Novice company
He may also need a career best to win

Past renewals of this race
Show horses with 10st 5lbs or more
Having just 1 run this season
Have a 0-37 record

The following horses fail this

CALL IT MAGIC - JURY DUTY - A RATED
SNOW FALCON - BLAZER - OSCAR KNIGHT

SHANTOU VILLAGE won last time
Nothing in his profile looks too wrong
But he is coming up 2 grades in class
Previously found out in this class
His good recent win merits another try

SLOWMOTION is a 6yo mare
She is the youngest horse in the race
The only 6yo and the only mare in the race
May just be a bit too warm for her
But she has had 2 runs this year
More than a lot of others have had

VIEUX MORVAN is interesting
Ignoring that he has 27 Chase runs
As 23 of these were back in France
He has only had 4 British runs
He is in the right part of the weights

Shortlist

SLOWMOTION 12/1
VIEUX MORVAN 11/1
TIMIYAN 12/1

Selection

£2.50 Each Way VIEUX MORVAN 11/1

£2.50 Each Way TIMIYAN 12/1

Doncaster 4.40

6/4 Afaak, 7/4 Emirates Flyer,
5/2 Euginio, 100/1 Forewarning.

10f Conditions race

This looks a 3 horse race

EMIRATES FLYER doesn't offer enough
Not only the longest absence in the race
But no 10f on this ground
If you look at his sire Acclamation
His runners over 10f or more
In Class 2 or higher
Absent more than 4 weeks
Have a 0-33 record

I prefer the other 2 horses

AFAAK
EUGINIO

What bothers me about AFAAK
He is going for the Cambridegshire next
He has been given 9st 4lbs for that race
If he were to win this race
He would get a 4lbs penalty
And would carry Topweight in that race
Could this bet a prep race ?
Could they want to avoid winning here ?
Probably not thats a bit conspiratorial
EUGINIO looks a safer bet regardless
He has had a bit more recent racing
His last 2 runs have been underwhelming
But down in class against just 2 runners
He could be good enough to take this

Selection

Small Stakes

EUGINIO 7/4

Win Bet

Listowel 4.55

11/10 Easy Game, 3/1 Getareason, 7/2 Air Supremacy,
6/1 Go Another One, 66/1 Dare To Endeavour,
100/1 Captain Leo.

2m 4f Novice Hurdle

Willie Mullins sets a poser
He runs 2 fancied horses
GETAREASON 9/4
EASY GAME 5/4
My angles prefer Getareason

September
Novice Hurdles over 2m 4f +
Show horses aged 4
Coming from 2m 2f hurdles
Have a 0-33 record
EASY GAME has this 0-33 profile
AIR SUPREMACY fails this 0-33 angle

Augsut September October
Novice Hurdles over 2m 4f +
Show horses aged 4
Coming from 2m 2f hurdles
Running within 5 months
Under 4 career starts
Have a 0-22 record
EASY GAME has this 0-22 profile

Obviously as a Willie Mullins horse
Reluctant to see him as a big negative
But none have won with his profile

AIR SUPREMACY is also aged 4 up in trip
He's raced just once in 14 months

GETAREASON has the best profile
Hard to know which of the Mullins horses
Should be regarded as the stable preference
But I am following my profiles here

GO ANOTHER ONE could be a saver
Looks affordable at 8/1 as well
If I went with a win bet I'd save on him

Selection

GETAREASON 5/2

Win Bet
or
Each Way

I prefer each way
But will leave that up to you

Listowel 6.00

13/8 Eileen O, 7/4 Doctor Duffy, 13/2 Suave Des Champs,
8/1 Clouncerna, 9/1 Dancing In The Sky, 10/1 Old Head,
40/1 Back For Good, Hilltop Supreme, 50/1 Betterask JJ,
66/1 Live Every Day, Nibblers Charm, 100/1 Antigua Son,
100/1 Scanimax, Western Doyen.

2m 4f Bumper

Obviously a long way for a bumper horse

13 Bumpers in September
That are run over 2m 4f or more

Unraced horses in these races
Have a 0-43 record
That is quite interesting

EILEEN O is unraced
He fails this 0-43 statistic

Look at the past winners of this race
They had the following career runs
3 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 5
Every past winner had experience
EILEEN O does not have that

EILEEN O is sired by Court Cave

Unraced horses by Court Cave
Running over 2m 2f and more
Have a weak 1-61 record
Only 1 winner by this sire managed it
That was Alan Kings Desirable Court

EILEEN O is not safe enough

This is also interesting

Bumper races
Since 2007
Any Time of year

Mares aged 6
Having their debuts

Running over 2m 3f + are 1-92
Running over 2m 4f + are 0-44

The only winner was over 2m 3f
That was Willie Mullins (Ciandarragh)
But all 4 lost over this far

This again undermines the chance
Of the short priced favourite Eileen O

SUAVE DES CHAMPS is also unraced
He is another Willie Mullins horse

I can only shortlist these horses

Shortlist

OLD HEAD 25/1 has experience
But her numbers are quite low

CLOUNCERNA 12/1 has raced once
Could and should improve

DANCING IN THE SKY 16/1
Not far away on the numbers
Probably is a bit of value
But inexperienced connections

DOCTOR DUFFY 2/1 has 2 runs
Looks the right profile to me
But the market prefers Eileen O

The Staking is a Pain here

Best case scenario in my view
DOCTOR DUFFY EACH WAY 5/2
He is that price on Betfair
But best price 2/1 in the offices

I've shortlisted horses at 20/1 10/1 8/1
No idea how any of these will run
Thats the nature of these races
But I'd be a fool not to save on them
If I can't get my each way bet

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet DOCTOR DUFFY 2/1 +

£1.00 Win Bet CLOUNCERNA 12/1

£1.00 Win Bet DANCING IN THE SKY 12/1

£0.50 Win Bet OLD HEAD 25/1