Bitcoin analysis. Is fear from futures that drove altcoins wild? (#15)

in cryptocurrency •  2 years ago  (edited)

A avalanche of funds had flowed into altcoins. Maybe investors moving funds feared that future trading will execute plan A - dumping a price of bitcoin and then enter in the dip. Are we in the silence before the storm? Or future traders have no intention to crush the Bitcoin price and plan B will roll on.

As I stated in my previous analysis #14, the double top pattern is still forming. I use different technical analysis beast this time. This is Ichimoku cloud indicator. This indicator plot a cloud which is used to predict trend. We are in the moment very interested to predict most accurately, if the main trend is reversing and if we are heading south into bear market. 

In a picture above a middle low of double top dive into Ichimoku cloud and then price fly again up above the clouds. Price above a cloud mean generally uptrend market (I always love Japanese metaphoric style of explaining markets). Also Elliot wave counting suggest that another 1-5 uptrend sequence is about to happen. This findings speak to uptrend continuing. 

On the other hand, divergences in MACD and RSI oscillators telling us that everything is not so sound with uptrend and that maybe consolidation continues. I think psychology will win the day.

In a picture bellow we can see the parabolic soar of the Bitcoin price. Every analyst admit, that is very hard to predict something exact in such type of market. Price is literally above the clouds (Ichimoku cloud) and above all moving averages. To something really bearish happen the price must retreat to $14k (38.2%) or better to $12k (50% retracement Fibonacci level).

So what have psychology to say today. Well on future "street" there is already bets to $18k prices for Bitcoin in the January. We will see if this sentiment stay with us also next week when CME start to trade Bitcoin futures. if "futurists" will not change their minds, probably we will see Bitcoin price advancing in the near future as well. So running into other altcoins is the way to compensate our fear and fill a little safer. But I see this transfer of wealth to the altcoins also as diversifying of portfolios. Maybe Bitcoin whales conclude that there is value in altcoins also and pour some funds there. I deeply believe in altcoins. There are Davids among them competing who will confront with Goliath Bitcoin.

Happy trading!


Previous analysis: #11, #12 , #13, #14. Is good to check them out to get insight into my reasoning.

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This is always in the back of my mind too. Wall Street are like the Casino. Their house, their rules, Their money. They never lose, even if they have to take everyone down with them (like the government bailouts after 2008). While I believe Bitcoin could hit 1 million dollars per coin eventually, the Futures market could make their money just as well by playing yo-yo with the price, using their market makers to aggressively position the prices when needed.

  ·  2 years ago (edited)

Yeah, They will definitely try to play some yo-yo but as always Bitcoin will show it's stamina again. Jamie Diamon had not crashed it,
Chines also,
and we had been afraid that Futures market will.

I bet that also this time it'll not happen! I think that this Wall street "Futurists" will play long and if they occasionally try to short something, they will burn their a**es. Is already evidently they bet on $18k Bitcoin price and at the end could happen, that they will suck their thumbs and scratch their heads asking themselves : "How Bitcoin goes way over $20k?"

Well rounded analysis and overview of the market! Thanks!

I've been reading about Ichimoku clouds, but as you said ...

In a picture above a middle low of double top dive into Ichimoku cloud and then price fly again up above the clouds. Price above a cloud mean generally uptrend market

Couldn't have said it better myself (O.o) ...

Upvoted and resteemed - please keep up the great work @tombort

  ·  2 years ago (edited)

Yeah, Japanese have so strong imagination. I really love it. Thank you for your comment, you quoted me, I'm flattered, fill like star!
So TAF guys(Technical Analysis Forces) will never let you down.


While I am not an ichimoku fan, although I am oddly fluent in Japanese having lived there for 25 odd years. I agree with the assessment of what is about to happen. I'm a MA and MACD fan, my indicators tell a similar story, though it has two possible outcomes.. One BTC eats shit in quick fashion, or it continues to range up and down, while trending down to bring the indicators in check and remove the divergence. Excellent analysis.


@cryptomagic thank you to resteem my post there is another
check here #17.