12/13/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook
My overall view on the short term future of Bitcoin remains unchanged. For the most part Bitcoin tends to be ranging between $15,000-$18,000 as it attempts to buy time for the moving averages to catch up. There have been some rather rapid sell offs, but for the most part bulls have stepped in at the lower range and pushed it back up.
One thing that I am noticing is that the sudden upswings in Ethereum and Litcoin bring with them a corresponding down swing in Bitcoin. This is not to be unexpected as everyone wants to be on the winning team. When they see ETH or LTC going up 30,40 percent they switch teams, sell out of BTC and buy the Alt Coin. This creates a ripple effect as the price of BTC will then drop shortly after a new high for ETH or LTC which in turn causes a mild panic selloff of the Alt Coins. The Alt coin will then set a new base from the sell off, money will move back over to BTC, market looks healthy and people start buying the ALT Coin again.. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.
This is pretty much what I believe happened yesterday when ETH broke $600 and took off. If you watch the charts you would have seen multimillion dollar BTC sell order followed by corresponding ETH buy orders of the same amount. So ETH gets pushed up, BTC get pulled down which in turn drags ETH back down shortly after making a new high. This is the same phenomena that we are experiencing at the time of this writing; BTC was heading up, broke $17,000 again, ETH took off, people began selling BTC for ETH, BTC went down, and shortly thereafter ETH goes down.
I feel that everyone in the market is somewhat on edge at the moment. I say that as every little drop in BTC causes a corresponding, yet sharper drop in the Alt Coins. It is as if everyone is trying to beat the market, be the first out if there is a crash and make some quick $$$ while BTC trends sideways or shows and uptick in price action.
As stated my overall views on BTC remain unchanged. In fact I am feeling quite a bit more Bearish as the 12 hour just went red, this is generally followed by a sharp selloff to some degree. That said it is likely we will see low $16,000 or high $15,000 again sometime today. Ideally BTC will continue this ranging behavior, up and down between $15,000 and $17,000. Each down trend creates a massive Alt coin selloff shortly after the new high that allows savvy investors to pick them up just in time for BTC to trend back up and catch the corresponding next high in their ETH or LTC. If Bitcoin can continue this ranging behavior it will eventually smooth out all divergence in the MACD, and allow the moving averages to catch up. Once this occurs BTC should be able to trend up at a considerably more normal and sustainable rate of growth. As I stated yesterday, at current it is just as likely that a large correction could occur over a short period of time that accomplished the same task of removing divergence from the indicators. Although I feel this to be a bit unlikely as the powers behind the scenes are using the current ranging behavior to pump up the Alt coins.
The 1d, 3d, and 1 week charts are all bearish, it looks as if the bump from the introduction of futures may wear off and BTC could continue the slow downward trend that was occurring just prior.
Etherium at $678
I am still seeing a buying opportunity here as we may be on wave 3 of 5, the first being $500, $680, and $780 this a.m. likely ETH will reach $1100 before it is all said and done and I would not be surprised to see $1500 if we look at the jump Litecoin made. If you buy ETH set some stops and enjoy the ride up, as there is still some gas in the tank.
Litecoin @ $350
Not feeling to great about Litecoin at the moment. It has had an excellent run that did me very well and I thank it. That said it may need a bit of time too cool off. The buying action seems to have cooled and it refuses to swell with each uptick in BTC as it did previously. I am going to wait and see where it decides to settle before looking at it as a buying opportunity. The charts tell me it will fight like hell for $300, but will likely lose the battle before settling in the $250-$280 range for a while. Again I could be totally wrong and you need to make up your own decisions. If it shoots up, Oh well.. I lost nothing..
Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-12-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-11-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/5ceniq-12-9-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-9-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
I agree with this statement for Ethereum as well.
Yeah, I count the Elliot waves in LTC, ETH, DASH charts and I always count to five. That mean major corrections in altcoins and funds rush to Bitcoin.
And here where we are go, on roller coaster, up and down and ups and downs never stop.
Its taf in TAF, What do you think @pawsdog?
I agree, name is Richard...:).. I call it the pain game.. ETH, LTC breaks a new high, then sheds 30 percent or so.. Its a game to see how much pain those that bought in late can stand.. I picked it up on the way down at $640 which is just above the 21 period moving average on my chart.. So I'm cautiously riding it to see if we get two more waves out of it.. before the big kaboom....:) If it plays well we should see $862 before the next round of punishment. Then a chance to rebuy around $715-$750.. to early to tell now...then one more big wave.. then Kaboom.. at least that is my guess...but it depends on what BTC does.. as it drags the market up or down with it..
For DASH I count E-waves on 1-day chart. I think there party is probably over. There is not much steam left.
On LTC 4 hour chart I count to three waves, But on the other hand LTC have so powerful rocket in it's ass that this is almost unbelievable. I will not ride that thing and end up in fireworks.
Also ETH look like pillar on chart. Its already overheated What do you think?
I think LTC is done for a while, and ETH has a bit more gas left...
Yeah, maybe really. It chasing $1k mark!
Seems to be sticking to the $700 at the moment. May be good support here to build on.. been a wild ride with it all day...
I'm so glad I parked my cash in ETH this week... I'm pretty sure I haven't yet developed the skills to time all this whipsawing around. I did learn earlier on about the relationship about BTC and the bigger alt-coins. I didn't get involved in BCH but it became predictably clear where the money was bouncing around between.
Obviously you don't have to go into specifics, but did you have a better day today than yesterday?
I told you to go ETH, in my market report 2 days ago.. so I hope you did well :).. Trading wise, yes I did better today, than yesterday.. had to do a big of speedy fingers on the pullback after wave 3 or 4 on ETH to find the sweet spot, got topped in at 681.. sold for a loss at 675.. was a solid buy point based on the charts, got back in solid at $640; up $2200 today I think... Actually I have not sold so I'm up zero.. Not up anything till I sell... :)
Ha. I already had my money in ETH, because I was exhausted by the LTC/BTC merry go round... I was just looking for a safe place... ETH at $471.. then boom. I was pretty happy when I read your report that morning... I couldn't really move it around while I was at work so it worked out perfectly for me.
Hahaha, you're right. Paper profits count for nothing in the crazy hectic crypto world.
Glad you did well... meanwhile I'm just kicking back and riding the ETH waves until I get back into the market watching.
$471 is a solid spot to be in... We may hit $1000.. just depends on whether or not BTC can get its shit together and trend in a manner that does not spook everyone at the slightest drop... :)