Crypto Experts I need some Advice, Is this the End?
A lot of what I've been reading and hearing is that new investors have over bought all the cheap coins and artificially inflated the prices to unsustainable levels.
I feel like I'm one of these newbies that did exactly this. I bought some XVG and POE when they were super cheap, TRON was on my list but I never got in, in time. They all seamed to have capped out around the $0.20 mark recently, with some pretty good daily movement.
I'm starting to worry this may all just blow up in my face if I hang on to these coins too long, but the price is still really low.
I'm currently wrestling with 3 options in my head and I really don't know which to do.
I have decided that I've committed this money to cryptos and not ready to pull any profits out and my plan was always to try to make some really big gains within the next year or two so I do want to keep it all reinvested.
Option 1-Continue to HODL
This is what I'm actually leaning towards, is just continuing to sit on these coins. I do feel XVG and POE may have some long term potential, they seam to have good actual uses and may turn out to be good coins. I'm not naive to think there going to be hundred dollar coins and there's lots of circulating volume, but I feel there's stronger than TRON which certainly seams over high on market cap. I feel there's room on the others and they may hit a few dollars long term and if that's the case my current holdings will of course be worth a lot more. But lets say they do hit $10/coin. That's a gain of 50X that may still be possible although very unlikely.
Option 2-Sell most/all of them and move into something else long term
This option is also very tempting and probably the safest. I think it would be less risky but I wonder if the profits would be a bit less. It's so hard to tell what's going to happen. Anyways the way I see this in my head is Selling 50% of what I currently have in XVG and POE and reinvesting it in EOS. I know EOS is still kinda speculative, but everything I've read makes it sound pretty promising. I don't expect it to disappear and I do feel it's undervalued currently. If everyone is calling it an ETH killer, than the price may reach similar levels so there's a 6x the supply so lets say conservatively it reaches 1/6th of the value for the same market cap that makes it around $200/coin. That means it may have a gain of 20x, but this is probably more likely to happen than Option 1.
Option 3-Try some Day Trading
This idea sounds exciting and terrifying all at the same time, but after watching the charts for the last few weeks, these coins seam to have alot of daily movement and I heard a lot of people report that they are doing pretty well just trading some of these daily swings. I could possibly add to me current holdings for totally nothing, if I can guess the swings right. I also feel that this would help me appreciate the market a bit more and get a better feel for the charts and patterns.
Of course I'm also very tempted to cash some out and buy something shiny, but I do want to wait for the big score down the road and fine with gambling with this money.
Oh yeah, this isn't advice and please don't do anything I suggested I'm mostly just talking out loud here, all the numbers I guessed at are all made up too!
Anyways hopefully some wise veteran of this crazy market can help me make sense if it all
Footer by @bearone
Why not just use all three options?
40% in FIAT
50% HODL Cryptos
10% Day trading
In that way you can't be wrong!
Just hodl man!
You've got to have strong, strong hands in order to survive the dips, and they have to get stronger as time goes on, because as your folio grows, so does the size of the dips when you compare it to fiat!
I'm with holoz0r. Invest in coins with solid fundamentals and hold until they do an episode of The Big Bang Theory about them.
I'm with this guy, you bought cheap as a long-term play to make huge gains..wait it out and keep your finger off the trigger 😎
Thanks man, this is totally the pep talk I needed. I just need to commit to the plan, stay strong and think long term.
Personally if there's one thing I would recommend you to avoid it is day trading, especially in this market : so volatile, really anything can happen anytime, and you should not rely your gains on some graph getting low or high during a little amount of time, first it's stressful, secondly, it just destroys your energy that you can put into better, long-term investment that you really trust so that you're safer and more confident with what you do. Hold Ethereum if you have it, and trade it with monero,zcash,iota,eos, any other coin in the top 30 in small quantities, eventually one will end up replacing bitcoin.
Sorry sir, but volatility is what make day trade profitable. But for that to happen there is a lot of skills that need to be developed. Day trade isnt an easy task, and have a lot of knowledge involved.
Of course I said the one thing I wanted anyone to avoid is day trading, too complicated, and you can earn more with less energy, so pointless. And market volatility can be interpreted as something unpredictable, it isn't good to day trade without knowing what will happen, so I guess volatility doesn't necessarily play a good role for day trading; but to sum it up, I woudln't recommend day trading at all, unless you have made serious studies in microeconomics.
Actually, good day traders make a lot more money than long term traders, and If done right, have a bigger profitability.
But like you Said, It need a lot of effort.
High volatility assets are the ideal field for day Trading, since the objective is to get the biggest movements in a really short term.
Good professional day traders may have 10% of profits in one day.
But the risk i really high, so its not an easy task.
Unless you dedicate a lot of time to lern the technics is definetly not worth It.
Yes from that angle I agree too, you must be ready to learn the techniques, because not everyone gets to manage to make 10% profit daily, you gotta be ready to only do that. And that's why I prefer to trust things long-term. I would be way too disappointed trying day-trading, but I agree it can fit some different people who manage to think in order to make it successful for them. I just can't look at the coinmarketcap.com site literally every single minute. Well sometimes I do it, before I wanna buy a coin, but that's really the only moment when I focus on that site.
Thanks to both of you for sharing this discussion. It's great to see the conversation and I think it brought some great insight into this idea. I was reluctant to try day trading for these exact reasons. I now know that it's certainly not going to be for me.
same for me ! I just don't have time for that, I mean there are far easier ways to make profit than being constantly stressed up like that; but again, maybe some people enjoy it and are specialists in that, but these are still rare to find.
Well the power of HODL is the greatest, they say you shouldn’t invest with emotions because that’s when you fomo, with TRON going down, that’s is because of the FUD people making though TRON is a scam and trying to bring the price down cause they missed the pump so they wana try get it cheap and also because they are Chinese based country, but they recently moved to America if you see trons founder twitter so which is some good news , but now that most of the ico are gana be going down for a few days I feel, this to me just felt like a new year hype buy and for me if a crypto shoots up to far it’s scary I like seeing nice progression , so what I’m going to do is study the ico, than hold on to it and hopefully each month buy more and hold, EOS is a sleeping giant and will only see gains later, I’m not selling any ico , if there is another one I like. I’ll save up and buy in to it, because I’ve heard a lot of people saying aaaaaahhh I sold all my coins for that one...lol so I choose to hold, that’s just my opinion
Thanks for the comment man, I'm definitely recommitting to a long term hold.
2018 is going to be an historic year for crypto in general. Think long term, avoid day trading. The only coin you mentioned that seems to have long term potential is XVG.
To me a balanced portfolio is going to hold coins that compete with each other for market share. That way when one is down it's competitor is usually up. This should give you a nice steady long term growth as the overall market matures.
Here are my picks;
bitcoin
ethereum
litecoin
steem
stellar
This may look kind of run of the mill but these are the coins I expect to do well. Steem and Stellar are the hail Mary plays.
The big trend for the next few years is going to be 'the programmable blockchain'. This means those coins that add more utility than bitcoin which can be used for the next gen of apps. While there are many that fit the bill, only a handful have a good team behind them. Really suggest you look under the hood with Stellar. I expect it to overtake ripple soon. It's the ripple killer.
Thanks for the feedback man, I have been hearing stellar mentioned often, I think it deserves a closer look indeed.
Questions. On the 3 coins you own do you believe in them long term? Do you know the future plans for development (road map) and have they been hitting their past goals? If you were losing money on othese trades would you still believe in them? What if it was looing 50%, 80%, 90%? Would you regret not taking profit at these prices?
Always take profits. Even if you just use those profits to buy back in at a cheaper price or if that coin rockets back to the moon, you'll sleep better at night knowing you have less risk on the table. The chart above is of Stellar Lumens and the case for 90% of coins that rocketed last Summer. They lost 80 - 90% of their earnings 3 - 6 months after they reached ath's
My personal opinion on Tron is to get out or at least take profits. Once the FOMO wears off is there any improvements mapped that will rocket it back to the top news pages. It's a new and exciting coin and that usually wears off pretty quickly in the cryptoverse.
Nothing in the next couple of years will be an eth killer. Neo was supposed to kill eth, QTUM is supposed to kill eth. Eth is too entrenched as a trading pair and as first too market to be overthrown easily. Too many people have too much invested on the Eth platform for this to be overthrown overnight. Plus, just because a Dapp platform has better technology what's to prevent Eth from cherry picking that technology to use on the Eth platform?
I'm probably over conservative after watching all my alts bleed for the past 6 months before it finally turned around. I know what it feels like to see most of your coins being worth 60% - 90% of there value from a couple of months ago. What's nice with the increased price of SBD I can actually buy decent Bitcoin if this happens again and lower my price average, but still overly cautious right now. People are making money too easily by making gains off trading any coin. It will be interesting to see how quick they abandon ship once they start seeing red everywhere.
I do certainly agree that the price has skyrocketed in the last month, and that's really the only time I've actually been in the market, so I don't doubt I have a little bit of a false sense of just how much money can be made and how fast. Maybe I should skim a little bit across into some more established and less speculative coins.
Based on your stated goal of trying for some big profits over the next year, I think your instinct of holding is correct. However, I've found it helpful to diversify. One strategy would be to sell part of your position in one of your big gainers once it spikes and use that to buy a different coin that you feel is undervalued. That way you're keeping your money in crypto, but also taking steps to protect your profits in case one of your holdings implodes. IMO, the crypto space is going to continue to grow, but as far as picking which specific coins are going to do the best, it's hard to know.
Thanks man, I would definitely be skimming profits to diversify into some other coins on my list and pick up higher numbers of some other higher value coins with good long term potential. I'm tempting to pull more steem out, but I also think it has great potential too.
I think about coins as startup investments with more liquidity. If a firm is essentially at a concept phase and lacks demonstrated product-market fit, they would have a hard time raising $5 million in venture funding and should not reasonably have a coin with a $1 billion + market cap. The odds of one of these firms succeeding is likely less than 1% (prob less than 0.1%). Partnership announcements are not sufficient to demonstrate traction in my mind though a significant completed trial with a partner might be.
However, a firm with a product and clear traction, such as NEO, probably has a significantly better probability of success (maybe 8-12% as a guess) as they have derisked part of the scenario. Still significant execution risk, but could plausibly create a $1 billion + market cap.
I would only HODL the latter. If you have a hot hand, maybe you can make some coin trading the earlier stage coins but it strikes me as more pure speculation less pinned to the actual prospects.
I recommend taking taking some profits, HODLing some of the remaining capital in coins whose probability and potential payoff still seem attractive, and divest early stage coins other than a small amount of trading capital.
Thanks for adding to the discussion man, I think there is definitely alot of speculation.
Everyone thought bitcoin was way overpriced as it continued up to 7-8-9 thousand dollars and then smashed through into the teens. The truth is, no one really knows how it will play out. December and January have been huge for alt coins, taking some market cap from bitcoin. Im sure there will be some correction but if you're in it long term and able to ride out the storm, then there should be no problem. Something i like to do is always keep some of my coins in the form of Tether, just in case there are a few big red days or weeks in a row. Always good to have something stable which gives you the ability to buy some coins for cheap
Yeah, I've been looking at tether a bit, it seams most coins move together so it's hard to swing from one high investment to a lower one. Thanks for the feedback about bitcoin too. You are right that no one knows what's going to happen.
Like a lot of the people replying here, your best bet is to hold long term, if you don't need the money right now, I can't help but agree with this notion
Find a website that show you how the team of the coin are regarding:
PRICE MKT CAP LIQUIDITY DEVELOPER COMMUNITY PUBLIC INTEREST
This is one https://www.coingecko.com/en there are lots of others and do your own due dillegence
Find a coach to quicken your learning, find some courses too.
Nick
Certified Bitcoin Professional
Thx man, lots of great advice, much appreciated.