The Coronavirus Merry-Go-Round, Blackmail Scam
The elephant in the living room is herd immunity — or lack of it in the strictest curtailment measures.
When more and more people are exposed to the virus and become immune, then the
Read also section SARS-CoV-2 Not New? section below for an alternative hypothesis that posits this “new” human coronavirus has been circulating in our population for a long-time. The hypothesis from a German virologist is that only the test is new.
Suppression Prevents Herd Immunity
Employing the Epidemic Calculator:
Epidemic Calculator: Strictest Curtailment
This is the ‘suppression’ scenario in the Imperial College study by Ferguson et al:
Examples of the measures adopted during this time included closing schools, churches, bars and other social venues. Cities in which these interventions were implemented early in the epidemic were successful at reducing case numbers while the interventions remained in place and experienced lower mortality overall¹. However, transmission rebounded once controls were lifted.
0.33% of total population immune (aka
Recovered in above chart) after 200 days.
No herd immunity. No peak in cumulative deaths and infections until herd immunity is attained.
Great Depression pestilence
If relax extreme curtailment measures, then exponential rate of spread increases again, so hospitalizations increase again. If don’t relax it then strangle the economy into a Great Depression and more people die of pestilence than from the virus.
Never-ending merry-go-round (madness!)
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team: ICU cases
Even potentially much worse than the above insane proposal, if immunity only lasts for a period of 1 or at most 2 flu seasons:
Evidence from the Flu Watch cohort study suggests that re-infection with the same strain of seasonal circulating coronavirus is highly unlikely in the same or following season (Prof Andrew Hayward, personal communication)
I have read anecdotal reports from Chinese doctors of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the same “flu season” aka epidemic episode/outbreak.
I replied to @Winter:
The Corona virus mutates much much slower.
Virus mutation isn’t the only vector. Our antibody titers decline so reinfection (or antibody dependent enhancement at medium titer levels) with the same strain may be plausible after one or two flu seasons. In the Bioweapon II blog, I cited research establishing ADE in SARS and possibly MERS.
People want to obtain herd immunity with minimal casualties.
Creating a self-inflicted Greater Depression and another world war is not minimizing causalities. 17 million died of starvation in the last Great Depression. And that suffering spawned World War II.
Provision more hospitals instead. If I’m correct about immunity not lasting long enough to gain herd immunity with strict quarantines, then cumulative causalities due to the virus will not be any less with “flatten the curve” — which should be factually named “flatten the economy, civil order and nutritional health into the abyss”.
Then by delaying herd immunity beyond that period, then health crisis never ends until an effective vaccine is ready if ever.
The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package — or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) — given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing — triggered by trends in disease surveillance — may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.
Given suppression policies may need to be maintained for many months, we examined the impact of an adaptive policy in which social distancing (plus school and university closure, if used) is only initiated after weekly confirmed case incidence in ICU patients (a group of patients highly likely to be tested) exceeds a certain “on” threshold, and is relaxed when ICU case incidence falls below a certain “off” threshold (Figure 4). Case-based policies of home isolation of symptomatic cases and household quarantine (if adopted) are continued throughout.
The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity.
This is the perfect pretext for mandatory vaccinations, health insurance and Bill Gates’ ID2020 which I covered in my prior recent blogs.
Antibody-dependent enhancement, autoimmunity
Worse yet is the research on antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) which I pointed out in my blog Diabolical MERS-derived, “Chimera” Coronavirus Masquerading as the ‘Common Cold’? and in some follow-up comment summary, and was shown to exist for SARS and MERS.
By delaying herd immunity beyond that period required for each individual’s antibody titers to fall into the vulnerable range — which is likely less than the 1 or 2 flu seasons required for non-enhanced re-infection — in theory autoimmunity can be triggered by reinfection wherein the remaining antibodies help the virus replicate in immune cells in addition to its normal route via the ACE2 receptor to lung and throat cells. The ADE could cause bizarre symptoms because the rogue immune cells wouldn’t be limited to the ARDS in the lungs. I could imagine CNS disorders and even perhaps Ebola-like symptoms. Perhaps this is why Armstrong’s model has the pandemic peaking in 2022. That peak could be horrific. And the totalitarianism reaction of governments along with the economic collapse and capital controls and berserk populace could be even more horrific.
Mitigation Allows Herd Immunity
Epidemic Calculator: No Work or No School Curtailment
Allowing back to work or back to school but not both curtailment scenario, attains
33% herd immunity after 200 days. I based the reduction in
R₀ on this quote from the Imperial College study:
With the parameterisation above, approximately one third of transmission occurs in the household, one third in schools and workplaces and the remaining third in the community. These contact patterns reproduce those reported in social mixing surveys⁸.
This may approximate the ‘mitigation’ scenario in the Imperial College study:
(b) Mitigation. Here the aim is to use NPIs (and vaccines or drugs, if available) not to interrupt transmission completely, but to reduce the health impact of an epidemic, akin to the strategy adopted by some US cities in 1918, and by the world more generally in the 1957, 1968 and 2009 influenza pandemics. In the 2009 pandemic, for instance, early supplies of vaccine were targeted at individuals with pre-existing medical conditions which put them at risk of more severe disease⁴. In this scenario, population immunity builds up through the epidemic, leading to an eventual rapid decline in case numbers and transmission dropping to low levels.
The estimated numbers are more extreme than the Imperial College study, which had only 2.2 million deaths and peaking before 200 days:
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team: deaths per day
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team: hospital beds
3X more hospitalizations
Epidemic Calculator: 256,101 vs. 86,747 Hospitalizations
The less strict curtailment scenario only has ~
3X more hospitalizations then the strict one at the same point in time. We must provision more hospital beds.
Although the required number of hospital beds increases after that, it would also eventually increase in the strict curtailment scenario also because of the lack of herd immunity. Do you think in a Great Depression pestilence that people will agree to sit in their homes isolated and starve to death?
Remember the new coronavirus doesn’t result in death nor even hospitalization for most people and most infected people have very mild symptoms resembling a cold or flu:
The alternative is strict curtailment which initiates a Great Depression of pestilence and puts us on a merry-go-round of a never-ending, totalitarianism-enabling health crisis.
Governments Blackmailed Into Totalitarianism
“churches to be ordered permanently closed”
At least Texas governor Greg Abbot employed a bit of common sense into his (otherwise nonsensical) stay-at-home order:
“I’m unaware of a church that would want its constituents, its parishioners, to be exposed to COVID-19, and I think there’s enough public information right now for them to be aware of the practices that are needed to make sure that their members don’t contract COVID-19,” Abbott said in the interview.
There has been controversy, particularly in the Houston area, over church closures in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Pastors are in court challenging a stay-at-home order that Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo announced a week ago that restricts churches to online-only services.
To that end, Abbott’s latest executive order overrides “any conflicting order issued by local officials,” including those related to religious services. At the news conference, Abbott said local officials “still have flexibility to impose standards that they consider to be more strict” — as long as they do not conflict with his latest executive order.
Governments will be on a merry-go-round into pestilence. They will have no choice but to violate civil liberties and implement draconian measures to curtail the spread of the virus, because the “surety loving” populace is unwilling to accept herd immunity as a solution.
Israel’s internal security service, the Shin Bet, will be allowed to use personal cell phone data and information such as which cell tower a device pings to, to retroactively track the movements of carriers of the “coronavirus in order to see with whom they interacted in the days and weeks before they were tested in order to place those people in quarantine,” reportsThe Times of Israel. This means that “any person in Israel could come under surveillance” of the Shin Bet, “an organization with no public transparency requirements” that reports directly to the Prime Minister.
The decision came after Netanyahu appeared ready to close down most of the court system and deploy the measure without Knesset approval Saturday night.
Yet there’s another possible onerous ramification of even that lower level of false positives. It doesn’t alleviate the extremely high chance of being false positive for those positives who only had a fever or cough or were forced to test because the CDC tags them as a PUI because they had some close contact with someone who tested positive. One could wildly imagine it ending up as a dystopian Kafkaesque cascade. So the main threat may not be the overall statistical impact on mortality rate and total infections cited, but a more sinister, insidious attack hidden within the math of this that can be targeted on chosen dissidents (or angry white men, registered gun owners, etc). It’s not a transparent process. The individual decisions are made by health officials at their discretion. Remember the IRS targeting conservatives at the behest of Eric Holder presumably with blessing from Obama.
My comment in response to Winter cites that the CDC and/or WHO are possibly contemplating that when community spread becomes intensive that only those who are vaccinated or test negative can be whitelisted from involuntary quarantine.
America Is Entering Permanent Martial Law Warns Legal Scholar
⬑ THIS ABOVE LINKED VIDEO IS EXCELLENT.
The follow-up interview to the above: This Lawyer Has Caught Trumps Attention For His Coronavirus Analysis.
I usually don’t link to Alex Jones but Alex explains this very well and adds important information. MUST WATCH:
Extant Human Coronavirus’ Herd Immunity
The critically important bit in what you linked to is:
A new French study in the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, titled SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data, concludes that “the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated,” since “the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France.”
That cited French paper ties into what I added to this blog in section White “Christians” Love Surety. I inserted that since you read my blog, so you may want to read again.
I will blog again about this with a more coherent explanation, because this is indeed the smoking gun!
That French paper makes two key points:
- Human coronaviruses typically have an IFR ~1% so the new coronavirus isn’t likely more deadly.
- There are numerous human coronaviruses but they don’t cause a failure of the hospital system.
The French paper fails to talk about herd immunity. We already have herd immunity to those extant human coronaviruses, so they can’t cause a surge peak. Whereas we don’t yet have herd immunity to this new coronavirus. Or do we? C.f. the section SARS-Cov-2 Not New? below for alternative hypothesis.
One can imagine that those extant human coronaviruses spread through the population more slowly at a time when international travel was less voluminous and interlinked. And when there wasn’t seed city Wuhan of 11 million people with innumerable airplane flights out into the world. And those extant coronaviruses didn’t have the benefit of initial spread into the world with the Winnie-the-poo leader of China Xi “Jingypingy” Jinping knowing about the problem in first few days of January and not locking down the international travel out of Wuhan until the international damage was done.
And then one can start to imagine that Chinese do not really eat bats and that SARS and MERS were probably also bioengineered trial runs by our globalist enslavers (perhaps in cahoots with the PLA and our CIA):
This rabbit hole is going to go much deeper if you keep on digging for clues. For example the closest ancestor to nCov-19 was a supposed bat virus whose genome was uploaded only in late January by an author from the Wuhan P4 laboratory after a PLA official took over.
One could imagine the PLA and/or Xi were also blackmailed. This change seems to drive a wedge between China and the West. When the West started pushing for a color revolution in Hong Kong, that was the signal to the PLA that they had to drive a wedge between the West and East Asia. The USA is even being pushed out of the Philippines.
I commented on Jim’s most recent blog:
Warrior rule doesn’t scale without “religion” because collectivism-at-scale is itself an extractable resource bearing an implicit power vacuum of extraction.
A warrior can’t plug the power vacuum without maximizing the extraction which spawns innumerable enemies. [Those who don’t maximize the extraction-by-destruction are destroyed by those who do. It’s a tragedy of the commons]
Thus the priesthood necessarily extracts by obfuscation and religious consensus — a form of collectivized madness [embodied in any tragedy of the commons].
Any improvement to this plight of humankind must hypothetically reduce the extractability of the collective resource itself [not extract by the collective of resources, don’t conflate]. Bitcoin is an example of a[n imperfect] technological innovation on that front. We need more of those.
SARS-Cov-2 Not New?
An alternative hypothesis that posits this “new” human coronavirus has been circulating in our population for a long-time.
David Icke cites an expert German virologist Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg who claims, “there’s no new human coronavirus — just a new test.”
Forward to the 2:50 minute juncture of the video New source for banned YouTube video to see Dr. Wodarg’s explanation.
People are dying less than last years […] Check “Euro Momo” statistics in Internet […] (so every year do we have a new coronavirus?) […] Yes. Just a new test is not profitable for each year […] Only if you create panic then all want to buy the test […] (if there wasn’t a new test nobody would notice?) […] Nobody would notice anything.
Let me try one more time to elicit some interest or replies from Armed and Dangerous readers.
They’re coming for our guns with this scam which provides all the excuses and pliable reaction from the majority to just stop processing for example permits. The police will follow orders from the authorities who are promulgating this scam.
Background check procedures may be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Please see the Firearms page on the Disasters & Emergencies research guide for current information related to COVID-19 and background checks.
There’s possibly no new human corona virus circulating that wasn’t circulating for a long-time:
Perhaps there’s only a new (renamed old) test:
[link to Icke video]
Those cited experts are not arguing that the unique genome doesn’t exist. Rather that the “SARS-CoV-2” was circulating already in our population. It’s an informational, propaganda, psy-ops illusion.
Virtual reality warfare may have arrived.
[…] I have evidence that there may not be the health crisis in the hospitals being claimed. First hand evidence would be best.
Even before 2020, there have been 4.6 million pneumonia deaths annually, some of which presumably lead to moderate illness, hospitalizations, severe illness, critical illness, ARDS and even death:
In the video I linked, Icke explained the claimed hypothesis that doctors are only classifying the regular occurrence of these cases as a new virus because the test says so. It’s a deception.
Good Traders Know When They are Wrong & Also Know When Something is Wrong
QUESTION: What would you need to see stati[sti]cally for you to change your position, and determine that the Coronavirus is in fact a true pandemic warranting the governments’ response?
ANSWER: This is a pandemic [i.e. virus spread everywhere], not an epidemic [because we have herd immunity already to this old virus which has been resurrected as “new”]. The distinction is very significant […] The hype is being used for political purposes. This is way too exaggerated to make sense. This is too convenient and organized. I PERSONALLY have real information that elites in Europe were given the heads up and sold not just their shares, but their bonds. NEVER has there been a flight to quality that went directly to cash — not even 1929!
Videos show there’s no crush of patients in New York nor in Germany as claimed by authorities and corrupt media:
Eyewitness reports can be sourced on social media:
“I spent an hour and a half at the entrance to the emergency room of a major New York City hospital this afternoon, watching, observing. No panic. No crisis, no emergency that I could see whatsoever. Zilch. Nothing. I saw perhaps a hundred people associated with the hospital who couldn't have been more unrushed, lackadaisical, and/or unconcerned. Not one person would speak to me on camera (video). I saw all of four people enter the hospital on gurneys....3 of whom were very old, none of whom seemed to be in any discomfort at all. ......... And for this we shut down essentially all economic activity in NYC-- an unprecedented measure in all of human history. Somebody help me out, because I think I'm going to go insane now......” — Pamela Rice, NYC citizen, 15 hours ago
Video linked below exemplifies the lack of panic in Mexico. Starting from the ~6:30 minutes juncture are some clips of the nearly empty U.S. hospitals. From the ~32:45 juncture is the hypothesis that community health was impacted by the massive rollout of 5G in Wuhan:
No lockdown in Japan as they go about business normally:
Cuomo said on Thursday that putting old people and young people together was not 'the best public health strategy' because it meant potentially putting the older person at risk
Reacting to the above, I wrote:
I wonder if the immunity in the elderly would decline faster [after prior recovery from infection by the same virus]?
If so, thus arguing for importance of herd immunity asap to protect them.
Cuomo now admits the iatrogenic quarantines and lockdowns may have caused more infections among the elderly than they prevented by locking young and old in close quarters. That would be more plausible if the “new” virus is actually an older, extant widely circulating virus as hypothesized in a comment thread below.
Forward to 5:30 in above video for numerous clips of nearly empty New York hospitals.
In first linked video above Icke or Robert Barnes in the video linked below explained pneumonia deaths in Italy aren’t statistically higher than prior flu seasons. Lombardy peculiarly usually has high annual pneumonia load due to numerous factors explained in video below:
Forward to the 16 minute juncture. Also at 10:40 minutes Robert discusses the black propaganda underway.
Air pollution event (intentional chemical release?) may have triggered Lombardy acute outbreak. And there’s the posited link with smoking for both Lombary and East Asians. Satellite data indicated Wuhan also normally has very high sulfur dioxide levels probably due to the enormous steel smelter in town:
“there’s this enormous steel plant in the middle of the cloud...”
The cytokine storm ARDS seems correlated with comorbidities that foster chronic inflammation — a form of autoimmunity that can perhaps be cured with baking soda. So it most corrected with conditions that are already widely dispersed and highly prevalent. Here’s a tangential note that baking soda seems to have a similar mechanism on the macrophages as described for Chloroquine in the context of a Tuberculosis cure:
Corbett Report explained the lethality in Italy and here’s more about Italy:
A leading Italian doctor reports that “strange cases of pneumonia” were seen in the Lombardy region already in November 2019, raising again the question if they were caused by the new virus (which officially only appeared in Italy in February 2020), or by other factors, such as the dangerously high smog levels in Northern Italy.
An Italian study of August 2019 found that flu deaths in Italy were between 7,000 and 25,000 in recent years. This value is higher than in most other European countries due to the large elderly population in Italy, and much higher than anything attributed to Covid-19 so far.
I provided another well known example in my prior blog of deceptive mass media sensationalism:
Also the mass media is inciting the memebots to turn us away from teamwork and into a political propaganda clusterfuck.
Our press are propagandists
The Fake News – Interesting Review of Who is Who:
It appears this manufactured virus hysteria (not a real crisis) is a psy-ops black propaganda as 9/11 (September 11, 2001) also was but this time it’s global! See the March 2020 update to my blog(s) about 9/11: Debunking Mark Roberts’ 9/11 Disinformation Tactics.
Neil Ferguson whose Imperial College study is the impetus for these absurd global lockdowns is a member of SAGE — which has a notorious track record of horribly wrong, failed predictions but this is covered up.
Their group led by Prof. Roy Anderson and his protege Ferguson created a panic over the foot and mouth epidemic in 2001.
It’s alleged that Anderson left Oxford and went to Imperial because he had not declared to Wellcome Trust of which he was a Trustee, that he was receiving income from a scientific firm. He also lost a court case wherein he had (falsely) accused Sunetra Gupta at Oxford of receiving her position only because she slept with the head of the department.
The ego-driven mad men are holding the entire world hostage to satisfy their corrupt ambitions.
What all of this is really about is forcing everyone to take a vaccine ID2020 mark under their skin:
Did John Hopkins University Deliberately Create a Financial Panic?
This is the “666” mark of the Antichrist beast mentioned in the Bible.
Did John Hopkins University Deliberately Create a Financial Panic?
John Hopkins has aided in creating this panic with their graphics which gives the impression that all of Europe and China are infected. They have visually greatly exaggerated the spread of this virus and appear to be enjoying the havoc they have caused, as if this were some video game. The total population of China was 1.386 billion in 2017. The total number of cases was 0.01%, yet their red dots make it appear that the entire population is infected.
These people are completely irresponsible and have wiped out both our freedom and our economy.
Is Bloomberg Behind the John Hopkins University Virus Map that Has Scared the World?
There are some who are starting to question if this is a deliberate coup orchestrated by the left on a global scale because all the socialistic systems they have created are collapsing and will be unsustainable come 2021. The strange coincidence is that Michael Bloomberg has donated $1.8 billion to John Hopkins University. That donation amount would naturally result in them asking how high if they were asked to jump.
Michael Bloomberg said he had no problem spending $1 Billion to Defeat Trump. Why does he hate Trump so much?
Some people have wondered who is behind the John Hopkins University map. Is there a political connection or is this just academic incompetence? I believe it clearly warrants investigation. The people behind this graphic should be hauled into the Senate under subpoena. What they have done with a misleading graphic is virtually overthrowing all human rights and every principle of liberty that so many generations have fought for and died. My family fought in every war since the American Revolution. Even Germany has been talking about declaring Emergency Powers for one year. We have others claiming the virus will last 18 months to clearly impact the 2020 elections. The threats to our liberty are far worse than an invasion by China or Russia for that matter.
The red dots of John Hopkins University are outright propaganda and deliberately misleading in my belief. They are not current but historical. They do not disappear with the virus subsiding. Look at China – they make it seem as if the entire country were infected. They are deliberately misleading and make it appear as if whole countries are infected to support stay at home and martial law. This is propaganda on a grand scale that I have never witnessed in my 50 years of experience! John Hopkins University has been promoting the collapse of democracy, justifying the suppression of all freedom and civil liberties. We have governments declaring emergency powers to end democratic processes thanks to this misleading graphic.
Fear mongering “red alert” beacon on the Empire State skyscraper in New York City:
Note I’m thinking if this hypothesis is correct and we do somehow succeed in exposing that the emperor is not wearing any clothes, then the PUBLIC CONFIDENCE in government will plummet. Remember the only thing that prevents a precipitous Minsky Moment implosion our debt bubble, fractional reserves economies is the PUBLIC CONFIDENCE in them. Once the stampede for the exits of trust are triggered in the herd it could be a rout of epic, biblical proportions.
So maybe that was the plan all along was to merely use this deception to kickoff a Great Depression and drive a wedge into civil order between those who learn such truth and those who must deny for their very survival and cherished beliefs and alliances.
I replied to @Winter:
Just like Influenza and the Spanish flu: Up to a 100M dying from
“a family of viruses that have always been with us”
And how many zillions of mutations have passed up by without any such megadeath impact?
So are we sane if we become hysterical when some technocrats decide to invent a new test to test some mutation which we may already have established herd immunity to long ago?
Nothing is proven yet we are shutting down our global economy on the hunch that the chosen mutation out of all the many that nobody bothered to even name or research is the one that is going to kill us all.
How convenient for the totalitarian socialist pigs to have that narrative and the control over the mass media to effect it into a mass hallucination.
IATF setting parameters for possible lifting, extension or expansion of Luzon quarantine
Trump’s decisions are apparently being driven by the irrational fear among his voter base about a vacuous threat, Behind Trump’s Reversal on Reopening the Country: 2 Sets of Numbers:
Political advisers described for him polling that showed that voters overwhelmingly preferred to keep containment measures in place over sending people back to work prematurely. Those two realities — the dire threat to the country and the caution of the American public — proved decisive at a critical juncture in the response to the pandemic, his advisers said.
Although unfortunately it seems unlikely that Trump believes the virus calamity is the hoax that it is, there’s a possibility he’s faking capitulation to the technocrats while planning to nail these conspirators to the wall after a couple more weeks of data.
Our corrupt globalist elite enslavers (the “lizard” people) in the IATF in conjunction with the Chinese-owned WHO are preparing parameters — for lifting or continuing of these absurd shelter-in-place “prison camps,” — presumably to be based on the level of deaths and “confirmed cases.”
Given that this so called “new” virus is posited to have already been circulating in the global population before 2020 (which means we probably already have herd immunity) and given that some experts are alleging that the tests aren’t even specific enough to identify this one strain of “novel” coronavirus among the family of them normally spreading in the population every flu season, then the nonsensical, absurd, 1984 doublespeak term “confirmed cases” will continue to explode upwards. We have likely all been harboring this virus for a long time. It hasn’t killed most of us. Nothing out of the ordinary, except for a new corrupt testing regimen and Orwellian government health policy. Actually these alphabet soup “agencies” aren’t even elected or appointed by those who were elected. They’re private foundations funded by our wealthy overlords such as George Soros and others from Rockefeller’s Trilateral Commission, the CFR, etc..
Also deaths misattributed to this virus will continue to rise, especially while flu season is still in play normally until first week of May. No one will bother to notice that these afflicted individuals had comorbidities and/or pneumonia from all causes (including other viruses in their bodies) that could have caused their death even in those deaths due to an extreme inflammatory cascade aka cytokine storm. And nobody will notice that the numbers of deaths due to these comorbidities and seasonal pneumonia is not statistically worse than the prior years on average.
White “Christians” Love Surety
Here’s what I had added to the section White “Christians” Love Surety in my prior blog Bitcoin the Phoenix Rises in a Wake of Dystopian Ashes — The Totalitarian Trojan Horses which inspired this blog:
For all that, it now seems clear that the problem is ICU bed capacity.
I posit that the hordes of memebots are unwittingly proposing to make it worse by advocating strict curtailment. Let me explain…
In my opinion, Hammer and Dance appears to be propaganda.
For the back-of-the-envelope numbers: if ~75% of Americans get infected and 4% die, that’s 10 million deaths
That would be a conflation of the case fatality ratio (CFR) with the infection fatality ratio (IFR). The author seemed to be aware of that but nevertheless runs with that clickbait headline figure presumably to incite a political hysteria.
The Imperial College modeling by Neil Ferguson estimated 0.9% IFR. Neil clarified on Twitter that he has not retracted his model and the 20,000 deaths is one of the UK scenarios in their paper given strict curtailment measures. That study estimated 2.2 million deaths for the U.S.A. with no curtailment.
So why is the fatality rate close to 4%?
If 5% of your cases require intensive care and you can’t provide it, most of those people die. As simple as that.
Provision more hospitals in a matter of days or weeks.
There are 4 million admissions to the ICU in the US every year, and 500k (~13%) of them die. Without ICU beds, that share would likely go much closer to 80%. Even if only 50% died, in a year-long epidemic you go from 500k deaths a year to 2M, so you’re adding 1.5M deaths, just with collateral damage.
Some (many? most?) of those additional deaths would have died (this year or in the few succeeding years) anyway due to their multiple chronic infections.
If we do no containment the infections and deaths will peak and die down within a few months according to the >Imperial College model. Thus ICU beds wouldn’t be displaced for the entire year. Also we can provision more ICU beds within those months. And herd immunity will work correctly.
And the duration of herd immunity is I think the elephant in the room that nobody is paying attention to.
Whereas, if we do only mediocre (leaky) curtailment we run the risk of keeping the ICU beds displaced permanently at lower peak level until 2022 but above the ICU capacity when the virus’s R0 has been reduced below 1 due to much delayed herd immunity. Thus the curtailment can be MUCH worse for the hospital system if we don’t provision enough extra ICU beds because lulled to sleep by the lower magnitude of the exponent.
Worse yet is the black swan risk that immunity only lasts for a year or less (perhaps because of the gain-of-function feature), so people could possibly be infected more than once by 2022 causing more deaths than a single delayed peak would predict. Stretching out the herd immunity would not be possible. Even worse is the plausible black swan hypothesis that these curtailments could amplify the death rate in 2022 due to antibiotic dependent enhancement (ADE) as individual’s antibodies titers fall into the target range. It’s difficult to get people to budget for black swans.
The author cites increased risk of mutations as a reason why would should not let the infections proliferate. That sounds like propaganda to claim that the risk of mutations would be significantly higher with 150 million cumulative infections versus 50 million eventual cumulative infections. The mutation risk to population size is probably non-linear.
Then, release the measures, so that people can gradually get back their freedoms and something approaching normal social and economic life can resume.
Popping the $quadrillions global debt bubble thus initiating a Minsky Moment is an irreversible Great Depression event. I’m afraid it’s already too late to turn back from this horrible mistake in public policy.
And that does not even factor in that strict curtailment seems to be a totalitarianism and socialism-on-steroids power grab which will destroy our Western democracy freedoms.
I smell a rat.
But here’s the thing – social distancing provides the illusion of control, not actual control, over this virus.
There is no vaccine. Flattening the curve simply kicks the can down the road. It’s not like we go on lockdown for a few weeks while doctors go door to door inoculating us.
Here is the question that no one has answered to my satisfaction – can you describe to me what the successful lifting of quarantine looks like?
Without a vaccine, the minute we try to resume normal living, the virus starts to spread all over again. It takes one contagious person to emerge from quarantine to reset all those efforts. Those of us that have not been exposed during this shut down haven’t miraculously developed an immunity to it.
We are committing to be on quarantine between now and when a vaccine is developed, not just the next two weeks. I’m not sure that has sunk in yet for those that believe isolation is the cure-all here. My mom was sure I wasn’t following the logic.
“No, you’re not getting it,” my mom said. “It’s not about curing the disease. It’s about not overwhelming the health care system.”
No, I am pretty sure I get it. If a million Americans are going to be infected, let’s spread that out over time to ensure the hospitals can handle them all. I get it…promise…I understand it buys us time…but…
Big Point #2 – At What Cost?
If we are truly only on lockdown for the next two weeks, it’s probably a cost we are all willing to bear. But I have some bad news for you – it won’t be two weeks. Not with the current psychology of this disease. We are starting with just two weeks because it makes it easier to accept. It’s comfortable. They’re keeping us calm. Easing us into it. The next announcement is coming. Two weeks will become four weeks. A month will become three months. This could drag on the rest of the year.
The minute we lift quarantine measures, the second wave begins. Eventually the third wave. Or a fourth.
China is just now trying to emerge from a lockdown of more than two months. That puts our exit around June 1. I don’t think we can enforce a full lockdown as successfully as China can. And that assumes no setbacks. What if China has a second wave while we are in the middle of our quarantine? Are we really going to lift ours in the midst of their next wave?
This leads to an exceptionally uncomfortable cost/benefit analysis. How much economic value are we willing to lose to save a human life?
If the mortality rate was 50% and 165mm Americans would die from this virus, I suspect we would be willing to live under strict quarantine for quite some time. We’d be willing to endure a total economic collapse because we don’t like the prospect of losing half our family.
If the mortality rate is 1%, that’s 3.3mm Americans. That’s different.
And that assumes 100% of us get it. Which we won’t [because herd immunity drops
1.0] Even without a quarantine. Because that’s not how viruses work. There is no precedent for an influenza virus spreading to 100% of the population. Ever.
Yeah, I’m willing to endure some economic hardship to avoid losing 3mm Americans. But how much?
A Great Depression of pestilence is almost already baked in if the West doesn’t stop these insane lockdowns immediately.
Everyone was all about doing their part to flatten the curve when it meant working from home and doing teleconferencing.
But now that they might lose their job? Tunes will change. Quickly.
Nope because the gubermint is going to give them forever unemployment compensation which eventually becomes known as Universal Basic Income (UBI).
In Wiemar and Hitler’s Germany there was Universal Healthcare. When the nation was bankrupt, they had to start killing everyone in gas chambers to lower the healthcare costs.
Be sure that UBI and this virus is more than just socialism-on-steriods. It’s ultimately a eugenics plan for idiots who love surety and forget their founding father Benjamin Franklin:
“Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”
This is becoming an all out coup. Freedom of speech is suppressed and anyone who dares to disagree with the left is isolated, hated, and mocked. The world these people are creating will be very dark indeed. They are encouraging civil war at every turn. People cannot be locked down. Already people are starting to rob stores, break-in and looting food in Italy, and we are just getting started.
Oh that will be the excuse for martial law. Jobs will be created in the law enforcement sector. This will be an excuse to confiscate our guns and violate the Bill of Rights and all our freedoms. It’s over. Stick a fork in the U.S.A.. Kiss our former life goodbye.
In England, you are only allowed outside your house once. Neighbors are encouraged to report on each other exactly as they did Berlin the Berlin Wall.
What the press is doing to society this time around just to defeat Trump and right is not only casting us into a new age of totalitarianism, but we are not coming out of this in any possible way where it will be a return to business as usual. The press is aiding and abetting the overthrow of democracy all to desperately change the balance of power.
Martin please stop being so naive. I’ve been expecting they would use an engineered virus to achieve their global totalitarian objectives. Now that we know the U.N., WHO, CDC, and China were all complicit, are you still going to pretend the the globalist Illuminati don’t exist.
This isn’t just about defeating Trump. That’s the compartmentalized plot for Yuri Bezmenov’s “useful idiots” leftists. But the big picture objective is for the globalists to own and control everything as Satan’s masters on the chessboard of our earthly bodies, as well as our souls if we submit to the “666 system”.
Many people didn’t like the forecast that China would supplant the United States as the next financial capital of the world. Some emails were outright nasty. I do not think it takes that much imagination to see why Socrates will be correct. The West is committing economic suicide. Asia is returning to normal as quickly as possible. We are engulfed in the collapse of socialism and governments conspiring to eliminate paper currencies, seized all assets including cryptocurrencies, and force everyone into their digital currencies to ensure 100% control of our financial lives.
Americans are being deprecated.
David Icke reiterates many of the points I’ve been making in my blogs, David Icke: The Coronavirus Cure Is Fatal. ⇦ MUST WATCH! EXCELLENT.
Mexico: quoting from my blog Bitcoin the Phoenix Rises in a Wake of Dystopian Ashes — The Totalitarian Trojan Horses:
The local health officials (and remember the CDC is a privately funded foundation, not a government agency!) and the mass media are trying to manipulate public opinion and foster hysteria and fear as follows:
Of course Mexico has lower cases because they’re not performing a half-million sham tests like their neighbor U.S.S.A.: Experts charge government’s coronavirus case numbers not credible. Thus the defiant Mexican President is attacked by the corrupt mediaAMLO Goes off the Rails. The obscene destruction being caused by these corrupt public health policy bastards: Coronavirus in Mexico: Street vendors agonize over health or livelihood.
"It's a very difficult situation," Pagés says. "Imagine if you only had money for your food or your lodging for one day" and there was no work the next day.
Colombia has registered
more than[only!] 1,160 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 19 deaths. It has closed land and sea borders and grounded nearly all flights.
Brazil: look at all the fake-news stories about Brazil’s President:
- Bolsonaro, Isolated and Defiant, Dismisses Coronavirus Threat to Brazil
- In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, Trump’s Close Ally, Dangerously Downplays the Coronavirus Risk
- Twitter Deleted Two Tweets From Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro For Spreading Coronavirus Misinformation
- Facebook and Twitter blocked videos from Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro for coronavirus misinformation
Facts? Or just a prediction?? (part-1)
The real shit is here
The corona Virus travelled entire world from Wuhan but it did not reach Beijing and Shanghai... can anybody put light?
Looks So Logical....After all Chinese Stock Market didn't crash....American and European Markets did....
Destroy other markets and be ready to capture them in every way
How to dominate the world quickly?
THE GREAT CHINESE STAGE
Create a virus and the antidote.
Spread the virus.
A demonstration of efficiency, building hospitals in a few days. After all, you were already prepared, with the projects, ordering the equipment, hiring the labor, the water and sewage network, the prefabricated building materials and stocked in an impressive volume.
Cause chaos in the world, starting with Europe.
Quickly plaster the economy of dozens of countries.
Stop production lines in factories in other countries.
Cause stock markets to fall and buy companies at a bargain price.
Quickly control the epidemic in your country. After all, you were already prepared.
Lower the price of commodities, including the price of oil you buy on a large scale.
Get back to producing quickly while the world is at a standstill. Buy what you negotiated cheaply in the crisis and sell more expensive what is lacking in countries that have paralyzed their industries.
PS: Pl read the book by Chinese colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, from 1999, “Unrestricted Warfare: China’s master plan to destroy America”, on Amazon. It's all there.
Just Think about this...
How come Russia & North Korea are totally free of Covid- 19? Because they are staunch ally of China. Not a single case reported from this 2 countries. On the other hand South Korea / United Kingdom / Italy / Spain and Asia are severely hit. How come Wuhan is suddenly free from the deadly virus?
China will say that their drastic initial measures they took was very stern and Wuhan was locked down to contain the spread to other areas. I am sure they are using the Anti dode of the virus.
Why Beijing was not hit? Why only Wuhan? Kind of interesting to ponder upon.. right? Well ..Wuhan is open for business now. America and all the above mentioned countries are devastated financially. Soon American economy will collapse as planned by China. China knows it CANNOT defeat America militarily as USA is at present
THE MOST POWERFUL country in the world. So use the virus...to cripple the economy and paralyse the nation and its Defense capabilities. I'm sure Nancy Pelosi got a part in this. . to topple Trump. Lately President Trump was always telling of how GREAT American economy was improving in all fronts. The only way to destroy his vision of making AMERICA GREAT AGAIN is to create an economic havoc. Nancy Pelosi was unable to bring down Trump thru impeachment. ....so work along with China to destroy Trump by releasing a virus. Wuhan,s epidemic was a showcase. At the peak of the virus epidemic. ..
China's President Xi Jinping...just wore a simple approximately Rm1 (Rm1 = CNY 1.60 current exchange rate) facemask to visit those effected areas without any other safety precautions. As President he should be covered from head to toe.....but it was not the case. He was already injected to resist any harm from the virus....that means a cure was already in place before the virus was released.
Some may ask....Bill Gates already predicted the outbreak in 2015...so the chinese agenda cannot be true. The answer is. ..YES...Bill Gates did predict. .but that prediction is based on a genuine virus outbreak. Now China is also telling that the virus was predicted well in advance. ....so that its agenda would play along well to match that prediction. China,s vision is to control the World economy by buying up stocks now from countries facing the brink of severe ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. Later China will announce that their Medical Researchers have found a cure to destroy the virus. Now China have other countries stocks in their arsenal and these countries will soon be slave to their master...CHINA.
Just Think about it ...
The Doctor Who declared this virus was also Silenced by the Chinese Authorities...”
Took it from page #TrustMeImADoctor
Confirmed cases per million population
This the END of our WAY OF LIFE. SERIOUSLY.
As time passes, these new measures become normalised.
And so it begins:
Hungarian Parliament passes bill that gives PM Orbán unlimited power & proclaims:
- State of emergency w/o time limit
- Rule by decree
- Parliament suspended
- No elections
- Spreading fake news + rumors: up to 5 yrs in prison
- Leaving quarantine: up to 8 yrs in prison
And also covered by the BBC:
Kiss our former lives goodbye. It’s over.
The realisation gave me a very cold shiver down the backbone a couple of weeks ago. There must be an exit that isn't covered, though at the moment it's proving elusive
U.N. Agenda 21 is the final objective:
That’s what all that climate nonsense is really for. They want to be able to control all nature’s resources so we have no place to run and no place to hide.