Bitcoin P&F TA
So BTC looks very bullish lately.
It is interesting to look in possible scenarios.
Let's start from 'classical' TA and move to Point & Figure charts.
Firstly let's look Btc-e (I boycott Bitfinex, Bitstamp has very low volume, Coinbase & Gemini can go f@ck themselves):
1d RSI has bearish divergence but 3d+1w (as you can see in a chart of your own) are ok. Notice the double top.
The relevant okcoin chart is the below:
The relevant double top is broken (now acts as support) but the 1d rsi divergence is more obvious here.
Now, in a BTC uptrend, the above divergence might be of no importance but it is worth noticing.
What is worrying though is the bearish divergence in 3d+1w charts (not the case for btc-e though):
Again, we can ignore it for now but it is kind of worrying. 1w looks as it is the beginning of a big move upwards though (in China always).
Let's look at P&F.
Weekly at btce just gave a bullish catapult but we must break the previous high of 740 (750+).
(The sell signal here is 680$)
The weekly chart of Huobi has broken this resistance already:
If we zoom in to 8h:
we noticed something important - the congestion area breaks either at 5200 or at 5425.
What does all these mean?
In my opinion we can have two scenarios:
1) We will break below 5200 because west did not follow and we were overbought in China, so moon will probably be postponed for 1 to 3 months
2) We will break above 5425 (and 750 at btc-e with volume) and we will go bananas to reset the long term chart indicators (like RSI)
I can't give exact trading advice due to various reasons that have to do with market properties (liquidity) and risk/portfolio management strategies of each trader/investor.
So for example one could be already long because he believes it will break up again, with a stop at 5200 or even lower (depending on his strategy) or wait to buy above 5425 (but if he is a big whale he will find it hard to rebuy and probably even small amount traders will enter with some slippage).
Targets for upwards are probably around 1000$ for BTCUSD pair and previous ATH for China. Then we will have to re-evaluate.
For downwards in a new post if we break below 5200.
kLee
Hey, thanks for the technical analysis. First time in my life that I've read a report that includes something like " Coinbase & Gemini can go f@ck themselves" Heh!
Anyhoo, here's an admittedly speculative fundamental-type reason why Bitcoin's trend is up. According to the Trump Plan for the Wall, it will be financed in part by taxing overseas remittances. Taxing them In (ahem) fiat currency.
Image credit for the above.
Nice hint for the wall ;)
Heh!
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