[Текст на српском] I am always amused by the desperate attempts of people to predict the price of bitcoin… or any other crypto. Unfortunately, it is not possible. In this text I will tell you why, and what you can do…

Yesterday, our user @cicbar has sent an interesting view at the possible technological spark that could ignite new BTC bullrun. I appreciate his opinion very much, he has a valuable experience in the field, but I have a significant additions to his view.

It is easy to agree with @cicbar on ETH and EOS as a possible sparks for another SPECULATIVE bullrun. The development of the blockchain infractructure is one very important driver towards the full decentralization and acceptance of decentralized cryptocurrencies, which brings their value up. But it's not the only one, nor it is the most important…

Last year, 2017, was a year of enormous rise of all cryptocurrencies. Market cap of all cryptos at the beginning of the year was around $17 billion, and by the middle of December it was $800 billion high! That was not a simple bullrun, that was a SPECULATIVE explosion!

Speculative Rise

Now, SPECULATIVE rise cannot be predicted, because there are so many factors included. For example, year 2017. was a year of fiat crisis. Inflation numbers got very high in many countries all over the world (Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Mexico, Argentina, India…), and people started to search for alternatives to preserve the value of their work. That was a pretty good spark. Year 2017. was also a year of big uncertainty after the “unpredictable” Trump has became POTUS. Then we had fork wars (bitcoin cash, bitcoin gold) and revelation that forking bitcoin is not so bad at all — you simply got a bunch of new coins without having to lift a finger! Then we had SegWit implementation and announcement of the Lightning Network as a solution to the bitcoin scaling problems. And the most probably, one of the strongest sparks was a clear “announcement of intentions” that Wall Street is going to jump into the crypto arena. Last year, everything has set up nicely for a serious SPECULATIVE rise.

Why do I emphasize “speculative” all the time? Because the rise to $20,000 in December was not real rise. It was a false rise, a speculative one, because people has started to buy crypto on irrational basis, regardless of price, driven by FOMO fever. So, how can we differentiate speculative rise from the real one? I'm ready to offer one view for your consideration.

The Real Rise

I consider bitcoin is on a long-term real rise that goes in the shadows of the speculative one. On January 1st 2016. bitcoin was sold for $460, and on January 1st 2017. for around $970. On August 31st it got to $4700, and then, by the middle of September, it hit the low of $3000. In December it has rally up to $20,000, and then “returned” to $6500 on April 6th. This year to date it went up to $10,000 but then “return” to $7000…

Jan 1st 2016. — $460
Jan 1st 2017. — $970
Sep 14th 2017. — $3000
Apr 6th 2018. — $6500
May 29th 2018. — $7000
Today — $7500

Let's connect all the dipping points (lowest dots on a bitcoin price graph), because those are minimal prices at which hodlers would separate with their bitcoins at the moment — into one separate graph…

… and we can see that the real bullrun never stopped, and it goes clearly up and strong.

If you want to continue monitoring for yourself, just connect the lowest dots on a bitcoin graph, and that would be the real rise of bitcoin:

Couldn't ask for more, really :)

One More Thing…

There is one more important point for your consideration. The value of bitcoin here is expressed in the fiat currency — dollar. That could be the biggest spark for bullrun — if we continue to express it in the same way. We always have to have in mind that bitcoin is not controled. It does not rise or fall. There is only larger or smaller sum of fiat that people are ready to give for bitcoin. As confidence in dollar erodes, people are ready to give more of it for bitcoin. So, we may consider bitcoin as a measure of confidence in dollar, which means all fiat currencies, knowing they are all pegged to dollar. And since the market cap of all cryptocurrencies is still not large in relation to the total sum of fiat, a spark could be ignited by the decision of only one man from the list of ultrarich — imagine the situation where certain Jeffrey Preston Bezos allows trade over Amazon in crypto. Now, that would be a spark for an explosion!

Unfortunately, we are not able to estimate true value of bitcoin until fiat exists as a dominant form of payment. New system of values and payments has to be established instead of fiat. That said, it is already much healthier to follow relations between the best cryptocurrencies, and follow pairs like BTC/ETH, BTC/BCH, BTC/LTC, BTC/STE, BTC/MON, BTC/EOS… or whatever you may like.

At the end, I would like to thank to our @cicbar for the inspiration for this text, and to repeat his disclaimer, with another addition:

I’m am NOT financial advisor and this is NOT an investment advice. For every investment you should do your own research. But I can tell you what I am going to do:

Keep Calm
and
HODL
until the end
of fiat!

Universal Basic Income