What if you sold all your bitcoins?

in bitcoin •  last year

We have just witnessed a beautiful short squeeze. BTC has broken out of a short term downtrend.

btc_squezze.JPG

Other currencies look similar. For example ETH also just broke out of a short term downtrend as well. And so look many other alt coins including Steem btw.

ETH.JPG

The bear market is over right?

Some people are ready to call this the end of the bear market, like Pantera Capital. My answer to this question is a clear:

Well no. But it may be.

The problem with any market is that we never really know, but I do see two main sceanrios.

Bull Scenario

There are a few things that are really bullish about what just happen. We went from 20k to 6.5k. That is a little less than 70%. We built a bottom really quickly at 6.5 and bounced off it twice.

There is lots of momentum and lots of "Big Money" on the sideline ready to enter the market.

Given this I see a possibility that the bear market is over and we are now going to rally after breaking the downtrend, break thru the 12k resistance and then 20k and then moon.

btc_bull_target.JPG

The bear Scenario

On the other hand this just like we had it happen in 2014. We are seeing a trap forming.
bts_14_uarehere.JPG

So just because we have super strong rally over the last few hours and even if we get up all the way to 12k, does not mean we are in for further crashes all the way down to 6k, 3k, 2.5k or 1.3k. These are all possible targets that still may get hit before we get back towards 20k, which we won't see anymore this year.

So who is going to win

To be honest it feels very much like 2014 to me. I was in that market and it was very painful. And it feels like that again. I personally don't trust that all is peachy now. I remember the pain and we have seen nothing like that yet.

However fundamentally we are also very strong, much stronger than in 2014. Interestingly the price is about 10x higher than at the same time in 2014. I do however believe that awareness, infrastructure and everything else has grown way more than 10x. As such it feels like prices are not too crazy and in fact cheap. I.e. think about how many of your friends owned crypto currency back then vs today. Is the multiplier more than 10? This can very quickly turn things around and move the market up like crazy very quickly.

But I believe that the market cycles tends do its things independently from fundamentals in the short term. As such while the space is growing it is possible that we are still experiencing a bear market that will bring us down much further.

So what to do when I sold all my BTC and have cash now

The thing is we must play this game in a way that we do not bet on only one particular outcome as we would most likely be wrong when predicting the same.

Instead we need to have a strategy that works in various cases.

As such I would not want to be out of btc completely at this time. I would want to be in but be cautious. I very clearly see the short term strength of the market and the bull scenario is in play, supported by strong fundamentals. I expect a run towards 9k and then 12k. This I would like to be part of. So right now, given we just broke a downtrend is actually a decent place to pick up some btc.

I would then want to be very careful around 12k, maybe sell at that point and also be very reactive if we fall off 9k as well.

Then again, if we break thru the resistance band around the 12k mark I would also be long again.

I am a general optimist and bull

In general I believe in the technology and think that long term we are going to go very far. As such I tend to lean towards the bull case and am most worried about missing the runs. In other words if BTC hits 30k and I would sit on cash that would be a much worse outcome then bitcoin at 2k and sitting on a bunch of bitcoins in my book. But that is a personal preference. If security is important to you, that view probably does not make much sense. In general losing the same amount of money hurts much more and gaining the same feels good. Much much more.

The thing is, to me it is soo much more likely to gain 10x then lose 1x. And as a result some of the pain has to just be acceptable.

So what to do:

As such I would want to be in this market at this time. Looking to exit around 12k and re-enter above that or when we hit the next bottom.

Likewise if I am already long I would look for short positions or sell opportunity around 12k and potentially 9k.

Bounty: 5 Steem for your game plan

What would you do if you had sold all your coins and are sitting on cash today. What is your ling term objective and how are you going to get there.

Support our witness

Thank you very much for your attention and we hope you will vote for us as witness!

In order to do so you can go to:

https://steemit.com/~witnesses

And enter the "steem-bounty" account into the text field and click vote.
Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 6.00.03 PM.png

Or use steem-connect to vote directly for us as Steem witness!

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
Sort Order:  

If I was in a cash only position I would have already purchased at 6500-6800 (which I did). Right now my position would be sitting in cold storage with zero interest in moving any of it without a move breaking 11k and ready to sell once it break 12k.

On the down side I'd still have some cash sitting on the sidelines looking for a further decline to $5k and then would be all in. If it drops further then so be it, but I feel this will be a very hard support level that will be hard to push past for the traders.

My end game has nothing to do with 2018 or 2019 so if this becomes an extended downtrend I will just keep adding as cash is available.

The only other thing I would consider is if I was in a pure cash position is deciding if I thought BTC or Steem will do better over the next 2 years. Right now it's steem IMO and if something goes as planned why I'll be adding $12k to my steem position soon.

·

Oh and I'll add that to me 48 hours doesn't make a rally. That blip doesn't even register on a 1 year chart so why everyone gets so excited I don't understand. Was about to buy some steem, but woke up to the price jumping from $1.80 or so to $2.50 by the time to looked at it. Figured it would drop later in the day and said WTF when I looked at night and it was over $3, but noticed I could flip some Steem to SBD for a nice profit as I bought them when the ratio was .85 Steem to a SBD, fliped them at 1.2 steem per SBD. Nice little return in a couple days.

Anyways I still haven't bought more as I will wait for the price to retreat to $2 or below again, which it will most likely.

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 2.649 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 2.649 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.000 STEEM from the community!

I don't think we're gonna see 20k anytime soon.
So if had all cash right now,
I'd buy for 50% now
If it goes up to around 12k sell 25%
If it goes down to 6k buy 25%
Follow the Golden rule
Buy low and sell high

·

Problem is nobody knows where is low and where is high:) If my forecast will come true, we will see BTC at around 4k $ by the end of next week!

·
·

I wager strongly against that price by the end of next week.

·
·
·

Will see:)

·
·
·
·

Want to put a friendly amount on it (in my house that is $20 or under for a friendly bet)? If I win you sponsor a week of my contest (total 3 SBD and 2 steem) if you win I pay you the same amount. Either way you win as the contest is worth sponsoring anyways ;) .

·
·
·
·
·

I can agree on bet, but in my wallet I have only 1 SBD, and as noobie here I still don't know how to sponsor the content.

·
·
·
·
·
·

We can call it 1 SBD if you want, the amount doesn't really matter it's just for fun. To sponsor you would just transfer the amount to me and then I would make the payouts. So far I have had a couple different partial sponsors each week as they liked what I doing. If you end up sponsoring even at the 1 SBD level you will get mentioned. Just let me know the amount you want to loose wager...lol.

·
·
·
·
·
·
·

Deal. I like to risk:) If I lose next Sunday i'll tranfer to you 1 SBD! I always keep my word.

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.637 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.636 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.001 STEEM from the community!

Greetings, Knirck.

Well man, I bought bitcoin for the first time at the beginning of the year and as soon as I bought it, the price plummeted. I hope that from that month it will rise again and that at the end of the year it will be at a higher level than at the beginning of the year, with this whole decline.

Does bitcoin have a new roof again?

Thanks for the information and good afternoon !!!

·

You are not the first and the last:) Now you have just to be calm and wait! It can plunge to as low as 4k $ under my forecast, but lets see what will happen in upcoming days.

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.484 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.000 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.484 STEEM from the community!

Breaking the trend line doesn't mean much! Bunch of analyst thinks that trend lines is a support and when price break out we should see a continuation, but in real life there is no support in the charts:)
Both BTC and ETH still can reverse downwards!

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.307 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.000 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.307 STEEM from the community!

Still around 75% in BTC right now. Will see how it goes in the next few days, I think this peak won't stay for long... When and if it crashes more I'll buy back @ around 6K.

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.319 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.318 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.001 STEEM from the community!

I invested in bitcoin and other coins at the right time. I can’t say I am disappointed in the least at the moment, even though the market isnt at that glorious 19k mark. I really invested with the purpose of ONLY seeing where it would go, and because I could afford to risk what I had. I also have dreams of funding a micro home for camping. Yet here I sit, HODLing, haha!

So to the question that was posed “what would I do if I was sitting on cash today”? Well, I would buy into it again. I believe in taking care of my own needs and I believe any responsible citizen knows that governments can collapse and things can go very wrong very quickly. Day trading and investing to make money is great, but having another currency to protect ones self from economic collapse is far more valuable. I live a modest life, with lots of adventure thrown in, so the market going up or going down doesn’t really affect me in my day-to-day. In the future, if my holdings have vastly increased in value, then I get to pull out some cash for things that I want to do, like that micro-home!

Thank you for posing this interesting question!

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.185 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.185 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.000 STEEM from the community!

·
·

Pretty cool, thank you :)

I'm very bad at making decisions and that's why i'll stick with HODL.

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.163 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.000 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.163 STEEM from the community!

Bitcoin is now stuck in a range between $6,800 and $9,200. A break through either end will determine the next trend.

As long as BTC is within this range, it is alt season. Instead of selling all of your Bitcoin you could have traded the alts to gain more Bitcoin? Or at least keep a % still in Bitcoin in case it goes higher and then it will be more expensive. Btw good read so upvoted :)

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.106 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.106 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.000 STEEM from the community!

·
·

@steem-bounty Thank you! :)

I entered the market with a large amount when it cost 11,050, which was a good time because for a long time it was between 14 and 16k, so it was not like that, it collapsed and I have lost, but today I think it is a beginning to recovery.

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.106 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.106 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.000 STEEM from the community!

that's a nice double bottom right there in those charts! lets hope it breaks the resistance and moves further upwards.

bit coin trades very psychologically so it'll be interesting where market sentiment takes us.

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.025 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.000 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.025 STEEM from the community!

Well if this was me, I'd probably buy some Uranium from a war Lord over here and threaten the government. Best ROI.
Just kidding.... kidding. The next I'll know is the Feds are on my porch

Really man, no one know where this market is headed. All the TA's have not really shown result. HODLers are HODLing, sellers are selling, leavers are leaving.
I'd say though you follow the one rule. Buy when it's much lower than this, sell some when it rises as little as 5%. Sell more if it rises beyond that and buy more if it falls beyond that.
Or better still you could forget BTC for and invest in some other altcoin with a higher profit margin like STEEM

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.011 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.000 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.011 STEEM from the community!

Just HODL :D

·

umm the cash?

·
·

Bitcoin xD

·
·

Lol
Hodl the cash, till it grows some mould

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.003 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.000 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.003 STEEM from the community!

I always sit on cash only. Now I'm just learning financial literacy. I will read your posts to get more money. Thank you !!!

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.001 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.000 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.001 STEEM from the community!

I would invest in antiques or shares of oil and gas companies. They are also liquid (well traded).
Good luck !!!

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.001 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.000 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.001 STEEM from the community!

I would have invested all the cash in the construction of cottages to further invite tourists to rest.

·

Congratulations! Your submission earned you 0.001 STEEM from this bounty. You have received 0.000 STEEM from the creator of the bounty and 0.001 STEEM from the community!

Breaking the trend line doesn't mean much! Bunch of analyst thinks that trend lines is a support and when price break out we should see a continuation, but in real life there is no support in the charts:)
Both BTC and ETH still can reverse downwards!

I think as you say, it would be pretty depressing to be completely in cash and watch BTC fly to 12k, but the breakout isn't confirmed and so a retest is on the cards.

If the test was a success then I'd probably buy a chunk more then and look at 12k as the target.

Never fully In or out is how I play, no chance of maximum profit or, more importantly, failure with this approach.

Cheers!

I would sell it all and buy polymath!

I actually did sell all of my bitcoins and invested those in steem and it paid off

👍👍👍👍👍👍

I will hold my horses for some more time coz i will never make the mistake of selling your all shares ,you dont know what is goingbto happen next,for now all i see is downtrend is breaking let us see where it goes...but if the prices goes down i wud definetly make every effort to buy it...
If i had to invest in other coins i would wait up a little make some research on which coin does have potential to get great in near future ,my next choice will definitely be EOS,RIPPLE,Litecoin, etherium,BTC...
Definitely not going with the Pablo escobars coin.
Now if I had sold all my coins and am sitting on the mountain of dollars, I would invest my money in making a better restaurant that can work for all seasons and wud make decent amount of money.And wud leave some money for at least moving round the world once in a lifetime....what is this money for of it cant meet my dreams...

To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image.

Brought to you by @tts. If you find it useful please consider upvote this reply.

I would put $6k back into btc below $8k, spend $1100 on a Smartcash node, then put $1k each into Ripple, Cardano and Eos and keep the reat in cash to cost average the btc holdings. This is a more long term, conservative strategy, but one that I believe would bare friut in the long run.

If I sold my coins, I will hodl rubles on my credit card

Personally, I think I'd put my cash in EOS .

It's got a dev team led by a known crypto leader with a good success record.
It's recently announced 0.5 second block times (better than current fiat credit card times)
There are multiple dapps that are already committing to EOS. (There are more, but here's one example ).

In my research, it's the only one that I feel could be the bitcoin killer.

#eos

·

One week in up move and everybody starts freaking out for EOS:) FOMO is the worst thing in this market. There are cryptos in top20 with better profit ratio than EOS and at the moment it's a bit to late for it.

·
·

This is just hypothetical.

I'm a HODL'er, so I can wait.

Very good that this buddy enough to attract everyone's attention, oh ya greetings respect me maulanazikri need his guidance

@knircky It’s really a BIG game and common investor doesn’t know anything about the market.