Let's Talk—Are Cryptocurrency Markets Cyclical In Their Behaviour?
I was sent the following image by a friend today on whatsapp and saw it being shared on a few fb groups as well. It seems as though for the past few years, Bitcoin has witnessed major correction in price in the first couple of weeks of January followed by an uptrend in the later part of the year.
This behaviour seems cyclical based on historical performance. However, It's middle of January 2018 and we're faced with yet another market correction. So it seems to meet general expectations that: this particular market correction will be over soon.
However, this time there are also greater concerns such as governments cracking down on exchanges and cryptocurrency trading in some important markets.
As with most bearish markets, there's also a LOT of FUD in the system. There are all kinds of people predicting the price to reach new lows and others who say the correction is over.
Honestly these days it can be hard to separate the noise from the truth. As small fish in the sea, one can only HODL along and wait for the correction to subside and the market to turn around.
Hopefully, some of you, if not all of you have booked some profits and set aside some funds to enter the market at these low and inviting prices. Market corrections are the best time to enter and purchase your favourite tokens because of their seemingly lower values. Because of these new lows I was able to pick up some Steem and Bitcoin as well.
What do you think will happen in the days to come? Do you feel that the cryptocurrency market will retrace soon as it has traditionally or you expect to make a loss and withdraw your investment to protect your principal amount?
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Very interesting trend to be aware of.
My gut tells me that, in some way, markets are a bit cyclical and that we are heading for new highs in Q2. I think it depends on what governments do in response to the continued rise of crypto.
I don't know to what extent this market activity is coordinated, but whales conspiring to move markets could be a factor. That's total speculation, but it wouldn't surprise me.
I took profits from a few different things in order to purchase a new computer and pay down some debt, and I'm glad I did. I just wish I had a few extra dollars lying around to buy back in at lower prices...
That's calming me down a bit. Good to hear!
Top Cryptocurrencies Pending Price Target and their due dates//
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrencies/@salahuddin2004/top-cryptocurrencies-pending-price-target-and-their-due-dates
I have no doubt bitcoin will turn around. Having held through multiple corrections of massive magnitude (btc has corrected by 80% five times in the past), I have little doubt this will turn around. Each of the previous highs were called a bubble, yet btc still made higher highs in the months after. A decent correction and possibly a bear market is needed to clear out some of the crap coins that have sprung up all over with no use case and no real purpose. I’m sure the decent coins will rise again!
Without a doubt there are cyclical behaviors in bitcoin. For one miners turn their miners on and off as well as use older ones and don't use them when the price is right to do so. constantly fluxing the difficulty and rewards creating reoccurring self fulfilled prophecies. We see the same thing here in the reward pool and use of steemit, with comments and posts. during high Steem and SBD price times their is more activity.
Then you also take into account tax seasons and beginning of the year expenses, as well as end of the year spending of profits. Very common in business, where the big bucks are.
The graphs appear to be highly correlated, I would say there is indeed a trend!
I dont have an investments in crypto excepts the small amount pf sbd in my wallet. But if I have some of those, by now I am withdrawing already. It might return to its lowest rate. Specially to those who invested and bought a higher price than today.
Well its crypto market we do not know if it holds in there or go down or might fly to the moon. Just HODL!!
I think @firepower was wise enough to have used the fall in price to buy steem and Bitcoin👍. But, does this price fall favour everyone? Since not everyone can afford to invest right now?
Nah don't yah worry... Just HODL as u said. "Everything is gonna be arlright." :)
PS: The correlation with the beginning of the Asian New Year is very interesting!
Best,
mountain.phil28
People like to see patterns in market graphs but at the end markets are very efficient (Google Efficient Market Hypothesis). There are papers out there that that investigated the efficency of bitcoin markets. What I got is that bitcoin is getting more and more efficent. Early in the days there were patterns like mondays were a positive signal. If you google for "bitcoin efficent market" you will find a lot stuff about this topic. Don't trust your gut.
Overall it seems that the market definitely follows certain trends. One trend that seems to be repeating is the FUD. Every couple of months theres a wave of negativity that shakes the coins out of the pockets of weak holders.
In crypto there are going to be ebbs and flows. No need to freak out.
History repeats itself again & again @firepower
Soon it's going to be BlackFriday ! Let it go down a little more my birthday is the 22th of January, I think I'm going to make a Bitcoin Buy Party Time !
