Bitcoin TA - summary of analysts - 04. July 18

in bitcoin •  5 months ago

Regular daily update on BTC ta analysts opinions.

**My summary - short-term (next 24h) sentiment: neutral ** (last: bearish)

- We dropped below the 6'500 level. - RSI is recovering from oversold on the 4hr. - Still bearish scenario is in full play for now and further significant downside is expected until we clearly break 7'000 - On the other hand a bull run gets more likely - the current drop was needed to regain strength and get out of oversold even for the bullish scenario. - So the signals are mixed - neutral sentiment for now.

Bearish scenario:

  • Rebound is a dead cat bounce turning below 7'000
  • Price falls below 6'000 again and quickly gravitates towards 5'500.
  • Short term recovery from 5'500 staying under 6'000.
  • After breaking 5'500 again a significant drop towards new lows in the range of 4'975 and 4'300.

Bull scenario:

  • We get huge follow up.
  • We go up to 7'500 and higher.

Monthly performance overview:

  • Added 2012 + 2013 on request.
  • As 2012 and 2013 the % move are gigantic I added two averages. One without 2012 + 2013.
  • June performance was very weak. With -14.8% clearly below the average of the last years. With 2013 this is the only negative month at all.
  • July is a mixed bag - 2 year positive performance and 2 year of negative performance. 2012 and 2013 were positive though.
  • The average is positive with 2.1% but that is mainly due to the bull rund 2017. The average incl. 2012and 2013 is even more positive. That is mainly due to the 40%+ spike in 2012 so I wouldn't rely on that.
    So just looking at this table we probably facing another negative month.
    Bildschirmfoto 2018-07-04 um 09.17.49.png

News about the blog

  • added/update monthly performance section
  • updated "Educational links" section
  • added a bullish and bearish scenario to my overview section
    I hope you find those changes helpful.

Analysts key statements:


Mid-term outlook: -> unchanged
He expects us to put in a swing low at around 5'000 in first two weeks of June. From there we probably bounce strong towards 7'500 and more. For now he keeps this target. If we see a good move up he might postpone his 5'000 target but the price target will most likely remain.
Still he is expecting that we put in a final low only at around October.

Short-term outlook: -> unchanged

  • Weekly: Not came higher than the break down area of his triangle. He expects this move to struggle to go over 7'050.
    He is waiting for weekly close. The 30 MA will probably drop another 400 USD next week - so taking big steps to the downside.
    The most he can see is to move up to the death cross of 30 and 50 MA. Probably at the time of 1 August - at a level of 8'500 we have the death cross - if not earlier.


Technical indicators showing mixed signals for now. RSI indicate selling pressure, but Oscillator is starting to pull up. And we still believe that the recent rallies are merely a dead cat bounce from the recent strong declines.

This week we still need to keep an eye on Downside Tendency as if the price do not move above 6'842, our bearish scenario ( Medium Term ) will remain valid.

Todays trend is slightly bullish. Trading between 6'210 and 6'842.


Get ready for the next drop. The expanded flat pattern will likely be done in the next 24 hours (meaning the move up ends with the high of wave C).
Bildschirmfoto 2018-07-03 um 16.21.40.png

7'000 at max before the drop. I don't think it will be a big drop, but it will lead to a new low.
BTC is channeling and moving very orderly for now. IF true, there are a few waves down to come. Target still 4'200.


Only time will tell if a meaningful and lasting bottom is in. The monthly chart still holds out for further weakness into 2019, however, that does not diminish the nice move up we’ve had off the most recent bear market low. (See video for details)…
For bull run we need to see a much more powerful wave up to 8'366 level.
Daily doesn't look good. Positive sign we have some bullish divergence on the RSI.
The most bullish count is that the intermediate (4) is in and we are moving up.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-07-03 um 16.35.59.png


A bounce at the 7'000 level was much expected due to hitting a major trend line support established since Nov 11, 2017.
Bullish View, if we break the 7'650 range, there's a chance to hit 7'850 to 8'000 range (0.5 to 0.618 fib retracement)
Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-01 um 11.10.48.png
Bearish View, if we break 7'161 range, we'll most likely test 7'040, which I see as failing to hold and then testing 6'500.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-01 um 11.10.58.png


@haejin is moving his analysis to bitcoin live. Those of you who want to follow him directly should look into subscription. I will try to get in contact to see if I can use an abstract to post here also in the future.

Bitcoin (BTC) Short Term Update: The blue circle shows a potential pricepathway of BTC. The purple waves have been updated and it shows a scenario where purple 1,2,3 could be complete and 4 is getting its final touches. Purple 5 is still targeting the 6'300 zone or so.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-06-13 um 10.31.45.png

Summary of targets/support/resistance

Reference table

analystlatest content datelink to content for details
Tone Vays03. Julyhere
@lordoftruth04. Julyhere
@ew-and-patterns02. Julyhere
@passion-ground03. Julyhere
@haejin13. Junehere
@philakonesteemit31. Mayhere


  • light blue highlighted = all content that changed since last update.
  • sentiment = how in general the analysts see the current situation (bearish = lower prices more likely / bullish = higher prices more likely). The sentiment is based on 4hr, daily, weekly, monthly candle charts.
  • target = the next (short term) price target an analysts mentions. This might be next day or in a few days. It might be that an analyst is bullish but sees a short term pull-back so giving nevertheless a lower (short term) target.
  • support/res(istance) = Most significant support or resistances mentioned by the analysts. If those are breached a significant move to the upside or downside is expected.

Educational links:

*If you like me to add other analysts or add information please let me know in the comments.

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Wow. Including 2012+13 there is not a single month with a negative average. That is surprising if you think about the several 80% crashes BTC had in the past.

Oktober and November are clearly the best performing months. Good to know.


Yeah - that I find also most interesting. Those are super strong month. December is a bit tricky. Probably first half is also strong and than turns strong. January is mostly weak while Februar is usually ok. But March you really want to avoid ;-)

Even though I don't give too much about such analysis - still somehow calming to see the trend of those analysts change to neutral or even slightly bullish for some :D


:-) but keep in mind that is very short term (next day) - the mid-term sentiment is still bearish. So no much joy for those of us being long term investors.


Even if it reaches only up to the lowest High you have collected for 2018 I am very happy :) Monthly isn't really too longterm isn't it ;)


Thanks for that comment as it helps maybe to clarify some things.

The "highs" of 2018 were defined quite a while ago. Probably if you ask the analyst (haven't done that yet) they say that we first need to see the confirmed low to update targets for the upside.

And "monthly" means trends based on monthly candles. That means you need several monthly candles for a prediction. So we are talking here years.


Ah ok, thx for the infos - as I‘ve said, I am a noob with this 😅

It seems you can remove haejin and philakone from your summary.

@famunger, thanks a lot for the educational links you included in this post. I am happy to read them soon. Regards

Hi @famunger, you are right, but the trend of 2015 is very similar to 2018, so we are hopeful that upward trend is very near. BTC must touch 10k at the end of july. What is your opinion ?

Thank you for your analytical information and your work, @famunger
I always hope for growth and development.
I like positive.
Let all your plans come true.
I wish you success and new achievements!

It's informative, thanks for sharing.