BTC broke through trendline support, Falling Wedge Pattern Holding in Tact...

in #bitcoin6 years ago

With today's selloff in cryptos, BTC has broken through the 2 trendlines I've drawn and invalidated both. The top trendline was based off connecting 2 close price points, and BTC clearly closed below the trendline. The lower trendline was also invalidated as it drawn using 2 daily low price points and BTC whipped through marking a low of $8400.

The falling wedge pattern is still in tact, drawn in the yellow dotted lines. BTC is testing the lower bound of the falling wedge, but managed to close above the lower bound. The selloff today was also on elevated volume, which could be cause for concern.

The apex of the falling wedge is right around $7000 which is also coincidentally right at a more conservative trendline support. Interesting enough, the apex is also right around 2/16 which is Chinese New Year, FWIW. Trading patterns are not an exact science and many times price action makes a move before completing the entire pattern.

Max downside risk would be $7000, anything below that, I'd consider the bull run over. Let's see what happens.

Disclaimer: I do not have a position in BTC.


Great post - hopefully the volume levels off in the coming days as folks calm down. I think the regulatory scares have some people pulling money out but I'd argue it's a bit premature and we're due for a strong bounce back, as your charts suggest.

Nice analysis. Would you consider trying to jump in at the bottom?

Thanks for the support! If I wasn't already positioned in many altcoins, I'd definitely consider buying here.

Trading is a tough game... Assuming no position, do you buy your full position here? Half the position? Or should I wait for BTC to drop lower? Personally, I'd scale in. Probably would buy 25-30% of the position here, see what it does before allocating the rest of the position.

Thank you for the big upvote. I'm about 99% convinced bitcoin is going lower here so if I had it I would sell my whole position now and maybe try and buy lower.
I guess pretty much all coins trade in bitcoin so it sucks they are all going down with the failing bitcoin ship. Ethereum needs to take over quick.

Good analysis. Definitely helps me make sense of what is going on in the crypto market. I do think it will rally though. The best days are not behind us imo.

Thank you sir! While I do agree that the best days are still ahead, I'm unsure of the timeline in which we get there. Hopefully sooner rather than later... Glad the analysis helps, stay tuned for more!

Completely agree, the timeline seems very uncertain.

Nice analysis.
Per your request i did analysis on gold, hope its helpful.
I will do analysis on crude when get a chance. Good Luck Buddy.

Awesome, thanks for the gold analysis. I'll primarily look at a daily chart but always good to step back and look at it from a longer term perspective.

I drawed a graph of btc. I found the support near 8700. I think price start to rise again. I hope so at least:)

Price is trading slightly below that level right now. Let's see if we can find any buyers...

It broke 8700? I thought I saw some support around 8800 which it is a little below right now but I think tomorrow will be the big day where we see if it can hold 8000. I don't think it will be able to for very long.

Can you post your graph?

Tracking the Coinbase exchange prices.

Thanks. Is that the 8700 one that steemitci mentioned?

Oh no, my bad. I thought you were asking for my chart. Lol

I expect you to return from the last support.

Are you referring to the $7000 range?

Yeah. 7000 levels.

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