Sell in May and go away. But remember to come back in
September.

Is this very old stock market observation true in crypto-markets? I know, I know, I should never sell, many crypto-enthusiasts and HODL-ers are not agreed with selling. Never ever. May be they will think I am making FUD (spreading “fear, uncertainty and doubt”).
(Pixabay)

Follows the pattern

I’m also thinking cryptos have a nice future, but I’d like to investigate this common stock market belief in Bitcoin market anyway. I made a simple research, comparing monthly Bitcoin price yields. There could be more methods like calculating monthly averages, considering minimum and maximum prices also, but may be this simple one is enough. (Monthly prices source: Investing.com.)

I simply added monthly returns of Bitcoin in a seven years period, from June 2011 to May 2018. Very interesting, but Bitcoin seems to follow a similar pattern than stock market indexes. The worst month is September, just as by stocks, and August. Julys aren’t very nice either. Stock markets tend to be weak in February, Bitcoin shows similar tendency in January. Novembers are fabulous – this was the case last year, but the 2013 skyrocketing makes the big difference.

Summer and winter coming

Bitcoin seasonality seems to be strong, but may be this seven years aren’t enough to make a picture. In stock markets, analysts are investigating 20, 50, 100 years periods, also. But the reasons for this seasonality can be the same: summer holidays, decreasing investor’s activity in this months.

In winter months, however, end-of-the-year activity and volume jumps because of a couple of factors, like “window dressing” of institutional investors, “portfolio restructuring”, tax optimization, new yearly company balances. Bitcoin’s Santa Claus rally this year, too?

From 1950 to around 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had an average return of only 0.3 percent during the May to October period compared with an average gain of 7.5 percent during the November to April period, according to Forbes. Investopedia

More about stock market seasonality see for example: Maerketwatch and Squirrelers

Are you equally active in summer months as in autum, winter, and spring? Please comment.

Bitcoin price yields (%, aggregated by months)