Is this the Bitcoin bottom?

in bitcoin •  7 months ago

TV Bottom.png

Hello my fellow Steemians and Crypto inverstors,

It’s the hot question in everyone’s minds right now: Is this the Bitcoin (and altcoins) bottom?

We finally seem to be running out of the panicky noob sellers that should have never entered this market in the first place. This is evidenced by the slowdown of big red candles in the charts. I say good riddance! Let them come back on the next market top and lose their money all over again! Haha!

Market interest is slowly picking up again but volume and the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network remain low. This means we could have reached a bottom. However, we need to continue monitoring the number of active addresses because, if they keep dropping, this bear market could have more legs.

Here are some good news from data sources correlated to price that support the thesis a bottom has been reached:


Google Trends.png
Google Trends search volume seems to be picking up after a February bottom


Lightning Network Google Trends.png
Google Trends search volume for "Lightning Network" is picking up strongly


Reddit Trending.png
Reddit interest is also picking up and back on the Trending Now topics


Alfaquotes.png
Alfaquotes.com, a website that calculates a "fair" price on Bitcoin and, which has been very accurate in its predictions in the last 3 years, is back on the green showing a strong 34% buy recommendation

Now, the bad news:


BitInfoCharts.png
The number of active addresses on the Bitcoin Network, very strongly correlated with price, is currently lagging below it.


buffet.jpg
A quote from Warren Buffet that prefectly applies to the current situation.

So, what do you think? Have we reached a bottom or are there more legs for this bear market?

Do you have other data sources highly correlated to price you'd like to share with the investing community so we can all gain more knowledge and powerful tools?

Share your comments and thoughts with the Steemit community in the comments below!



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I think those charts of declining bitcoin searches on Google can be very misleading. One reason searches are declining ins because almost everyone with a smartphone and/or internet has heard about bitcoin at this point and doesn't need to search G for it.

well speculation is great, proof is in the pudding a very shaky experience for the guy planning to keep up with this market, just seems so manipulated. The market volume increases 40 billion dollars over night and the others are worried about a 1 billion dollars of coins crashing the game. somewhere i think we missed something.
Anybody have any idea of whats going on?

While i hate to answer my own question if anybody wants to know it was the G20 meeting!

Not sure we’ve reached the bottom just yet. My portfolio isn’t down a full 95%. Lol 😂I’m holding for a while longer before I think I’m gonna see anything back. Thanks for the post!

I just don't understand people selling at such low prices?

I have picked up some quality coins this week at rock bottom prices in my opinion.

I am in a few telegram groups and watching the comments is ridiculous, just yesterday someone invested £2k in an ICO and they were asking what a MEW is and whats GAS?

Everyone should fully research and understand what they are investing in and more importantly believe in the project.

Tips -
Don't buy shit coins like Doge.
Accumulate positions on the dips through trading.
Research before you invest.

Also I think we are still in for a bumpy ride until at least May.

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Haha I bought Dodge, just for fun, I own its millionth of supply for like 200 bucks. Some people go to the mall and spend on crap I collect millionth of supplies ;) regards

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Everyone has got to have a hobby :-)

Just cash out the hobby on the way up and dont get stuck holding bags at the top :-)

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Nobody can call tops or bottoms, it's all Fugazi. I'll rather hodl. regards

I believe the market will actually go higher when more regulation comes because that is when Wall Street will start to jump in

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Wall street won't jump in an unregulated trend. They are lobbyists sucking ppl's blood from an economic ecosystem.
If crypto succeed and survive it will be without governance.

Just my opinion

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It's not Wall Street, it will be the power brokers behind Wall Street who will buy up large positions and then send in the lobbyists to legitimize their investments once they have a substantial and influential portion of the market in their control. I continue to believe that the negative coverage is manufactured in order to create a bear market allowing a low entry point for the Whales.

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That's quite a good guess, can also called conspiracy. I hold coins, so I will lose on such a vast crash, BUT I'm more curious what will happen to DECENTRALIZATION rather than being concerned about my small asset.

Would the banking and money system get out of hands of thise people as media got? cnn and fox etc dream about how they could manage society's mind two decades ago. With internet and social medias their time ended.

What about JPMorgan etc?

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I think there are quite a few of the original miners and developers who hold vast sums of BTC who are believers of decentralization, but also need the expertise of large institutions to help diversify and are also looking to the old money crowd for guidance on how to keep/invest/spend their money. Try cashing out $50M in BTC and investing it on your own. A lot of people won't even know where to look for VC or PE investments. The old money crowd will be looking to these nuevo rich to get capital for investments and will probably look to diversify their own portfolios by adding cryptos, especially if it allows them anonymity.

I consider this a stabilisation and maturing of cryptos!

I think we can go a little bit lower, but then... :)

Markets will be boring for some time while the uncertainty plays out related to the Mt Gox whale give the supply of BTC he has to sell and more importantly, regulation. In the meantime, fundamentally, adoption will continue to increase as the projects supporting the assets push technology and use cases forward. Given that I highly doubt US regulators will push away innovative industries such as Cryptos, I see a healthy future where balance between regulation, security and demand will move the market forwars for thise projects that focus on achieving the goals of efficiency and solving economic issues they are meant to solve.

I just believe Bitcoin will rise again, I just think noobs coming in just for the money alone are causing more harm than good because of their FUD characteristics.
The media will continue spreading negative news about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general and if one do not know the core and purposes of these cryptocurrencies FUD will come into play.

And I like the post you shared from Buffett ,thanks for sharing

I'm expecting more ups & downs, holding between 8k and 11k for a month or so longer, before we start heading up again. Not sure I'd call it a bear market - just a little sideways action before a new bull run.

There's probably more bad news coming and there's a lot of nervousness still, especially as every new FUD news peice in the mainstream media seems to get people spooked.

Anyway, as long as you don't sell, you don't lose anything. Believe in crypto and that the future is bright and there's nothing to get depressed about...rather excited at all these buying opportunities!

Considering my forecast for STEEM by St Pats day was $10..a miss of $8....

Well what the heck do I know.

The FUD sure is getting tiring but it will pass at some point. Bitcoin will lead the circus out of this town. We are mired in a bankster led attack....we just have to weather this until it passes.

The fortunate thing is that development is going forward at a rapid rate. Blockchain progress will outpace the banksters FUD.

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The good thing is we see where it can go, just a matter of time before it gets there again

feel informed nice posting

I don't think that this is the Bitcoin bottom yet because you have to realize that the Bitcoin bubble was the biggest bubble to happen in history. You also have to take into consideration that since all of the noobs are out of the crypto currency market, they are not willing to buy into Bitcoin, which causes the less trading volume.

Overall this was a great post and keep up the good work!

I don't think we've seen the bottom. Bitcoin price could and should fall further towards the cost of mining it. I'd say 5-6k is reasonable. We are still seeing a bearish trend here.

I think we're all hoping this is the calm before the boom, but by all means, until then, let the bargain sale continue.

The entire world is now talking about crypto.Officials from different country are trying to ban crypto right now it is tough to tell is it bottom or not.We have to wait a bit more to make an assessment about crypto.Let's hope for the best.@upvoted and resteemed

Very interesting article. I also think the cryptocurrency is a piece of the future. Of course, it is questionable on which firm or shaky feet this future stands.

Sehr interessanter Artikel. Ich denke auch, die Kryptowährung ist ein Stück Zukunft. Fraglich ist natürlich, auf welch festen oder wackeligen Füßen diese Zukunft steht.

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Buy the dips! I just did. If it dips some more, so what? I'm in for the long haul.

The FUD sure is flowing freely, even the BTC indicators in of themselves are currently very strong.

We can expect a wild ride as the early adoption phase takes hold.

I hope it was the bottom and that the bearish trend will come to an end finally..
It was enough of suffering for us haha

Just found your blog and I really like your content.
Started following you right now.
Regards
Jason

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you are taking a dangerous drug i call hopium...hope.. im on your side though hahaha

I was so worried about this dip :(
Steem goes down Below 2$,
I'm a little bit sad as well :(
But when I come across your post, so much positivity included in your posts,
You give me a reason to smile a bit :)
Thank you so much @cryptoeagle

Highly doubtful the crypto community will let bitcoin fail. There are simply too many developers, miners, and investors who want to see the technology take hold. Just wait for the media to find something else to complain about.... like the DOW or Real Estate market in the US tanking.... Gold and Cryptos will be seen as safe havens.

I think it is a normal process and that it achieves its stability in a few days, returning to a position similar to the one it has always had.

Appreciate crypto evolving my patients, expecting more ups and downs but getting close to THE boom. What may come in April though? Positioning is key right now.

Hey man! I hope you are right and would agree with you, its nice to see a bit of optimism in the crowds.
Cheers!

Nice work@cryptoeagle
Ure are actually speaking my mind.The present situation is phantoming and flabergating.A friend of mine in South africa was actually having regrets.He said'I could have joined the bitcoin trend in 2010 but my extravagant lifestyle took me of the page,I could have been a BIGBOY by now'.Regrets all the way down.But I hope we are not at the bottom.

In 5 previous bear markets we have had an 80% drop from the peak. That would take us down to $4k so we may still have a way to go.

More regulation will work wonders!

only one reply.... I upvote this post and be optimist for the future..

Yes sure, I think this is the Bitcoin bottom. And about what your think about market interests, I don't think we are gonna see any more dropping. Trust me within a week or two we are going to go up again.

There is no real indication that bitcoin will go down or up. I think it is time to buy now.

Great article, thank a lot! A good page to keep an eye on is the MtGox Cold Wallet Monitor here: https://www.cryptoground.com/mtgox-cold-wallet-monitor/
The cold wallet has about 166K BTC that remain to be sold by the MtGox trustee. If these were to be sold, it would have a significant impact on the BTC price.

Could be getting close, Bitcoin search terms are starting to trend back up https://steemit.com/busy/@coolkidapproved/today-s-top-trending-cryptocurrency-march-18-2018

The Wall Street bloodsuckers have their eyes on Cryptocurrency. They keep watching. Almost stepping out of the shadows, but not yet, waiting until the right moment. It will probably go lower, then....into the light.

always tough to say when the bottom is, no one wants to catch a falling knife. Always best to scale in each day. That way you dont miss out when the spike comes!

Lets hope your right mate. Its been a long dip this time. Cant really see it going to much lower

I believe it will recover soon, the crypto market can be likened to the stock exchange, it goes up and down all the time, and I dont believe this will ever change, so if we want to invest in cryptos we have to accept those facts. Its a game we play on a daily basis! lol

I don't see the rock bottom... if btc is tend to hit the rock bottom it will be $2800

But I m also very positive that it doesn't need to.
I posted my point of view couple of days ago, this was the pattern:
Screenshot_20180313-021452.png

To me, it says there should be a test to level 7100$

I appreciate if you read the full post on my page

thanks for your valuable and informative post.
We can take out a lot of information by your post.
@Resteem.jpg

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Hard to say what is going to happen, but it feels like a good time to invest

It is nearly impossible to catch the bottom but yes time has come to start invest in portions. Thanks for the analysis.

bitcoin price looking on 6800 US Doller

I've recently read we have entered the capitulation phase of the bubble, so there is perhaps some room to go down. But not tgat much I hope. stages_bubble.png

I.m not right person to comment on this, as I wasn't greedy when others were fearful. I miss chance for it. 😔 Happy Crypto anyway. 😉

I consider this a stabilisation and maturing of cryptos!

Wall street will certainly jump in and then this whole thing will be funny to watch.
Kick the normies out- they'll pay the most when we moon

The lower the better, you can never have enough crypto

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RT btfd amirite?

If some more problems occur to crypto then it might go a bit more down.Right now no one can tell what is the bottom or the peak.Thanks for sharing.@upvoted

I strongly believe this time to invest. It doesn't matter whether it takes months, nothing lasts forever so we will definitely smile. After the rain comes the ☀.

Makes sense that we are close to the bottom, your analysis agrees with the charts, the general floors and the news. I am uncertain if bitcoin has just found stability around the 8 to 12k mark or if it will obtain new highs in the next year.
Although bitcoin has been the reigning king, a few strong princlings are vying to take its place. There are some altcoins that will have vastly superior returns compared to BTC this year and many more that will fair far worse. I for one think there are better projects to invest in and recognize that BTC is slowly being replaced by better blockchains and more financially focused projects. The downside risk of holding BTC above 12k is just too great and thats why people have been getting out.

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I agree with most of this comment

Your data basically gives me hope and information, thanks for that. :)

Still Bitcoin can test last month low (February) area around $5500. Breaking this support ($5500) may lead the price to fall down to test ichimoku cloud , area around $3300.

Important post......upvote done....

BTC will explode this week!

Thanks for also pointing out the Bad News. Am also looking for other negatively-correlated factors...

Hey!

I like your post, I will follow !

Useful information about the day opening price, For all current and future readers.

Today's date 17/03/2018:
Bitcoin: 8509$
Ethereum: 612$
Ripple: 0,70$
Bitcoin Cash: 998$
Litecoin: 168$
NEO: 66$
Cardano: 0,18$
Stellar: 0,24$
EOS: 5,2$
Monero: 220$

Have a good day everyone!

It think it will pump at around $7k but then go back down to $3k-$4k. But this is just a guess based on what I've been reading and seeing in the market.

Just made a post about it in my blog.

Bitcoin is volatile currency ...@cryptoeagle I think bitcoin grows upwards very soon..
Its bad time for bitcoin holders but don't worry bitcoin came back soon..
its my personal opinion .

hopefully it ends soon

im fine with it slowing down a bit. the hype last year was just crazy.

I think we're reaching the bottom, but not there yet. Still waiting on the ABCDE pattern to complete. Once its does we'll be back in business. See my forecast here:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@workin2005/bitcoin-update-for-3-17-18-correction-may-be-nearing-completion

bitcoin , thanks for sharing!

If something falls and nothing is against its fall you can consider as a "possibility" that it keeps falling

Thanks for sharing..... i appreciate this bitcoin.
upvote resteemit

This content is very Good...
I like it very much...
Yeah, I will wait for the next content...

There is no real indication that bitcoin will go down or up. I think it is time to buy now.

Excellent Post! I'm sure Bicoins is going up and that's why I bought without fear. It's time to believe and invest! @cryptoeagle without fear

Warning for Bitcoin !! If you are going to invest now, be sure to read it before you did it.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@goyapro/bitcoin-btc-update-ema-dead-cross-a-red-alert-for-bitcoin

To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:

It is certain

Hi! I'm a bot, and this answer was posted automatically. Check this post out for more information.

I would say that the recommendation to buy can not be taken as true because the calculation formula only shows the probability that mining investment can recover in six months, there is a very important variable to consider the behavior of investors at the time of selling and buy.

it will rise again... Long live our Future :p