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RE: Secrets of Bitcoin’s Dystopian Valuation Model

in #bitcoin5 years ago (edited)

Continued from my prior comment post:

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  3. […] Emphasize the point that low-cost mining hardware can in some cases still break-even at market rates for generating electricity from solar power, which is thus a profitable investment in adding solar power generation.
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  8. Additionally there’s another flaw in Litecoin as an attempt to be the transactional alternative to Bitcoin. It has no instant onboarding mechanism, which would allow people (and botnets!) to burn extant resources already in the possession of the general public without needing to go buy mining hardware. Instant onboarding is important for onboarding the masses, because they have low patience and want instant access to something they find interesting. Monero has tried and failed to maintain ASIC-resistant mining with CryptoNight, i.e. Monero is now entirely centralized and lost immutability as the developers+community change the proof-of-work algorithm often to try to fend off ASICs. There’s some new research for an attempt to make a CPU ASIC-resistant miner, but I remain (as I explained in 2016) very skeptical because a) CPUs are designed for maximum throughput (e.g. speculative ILP and OoOE), not maximum efficiency, and b) “There's No Such Thing as a General-purpose Processor”. However, I do think there’s an objective way to do a proof-of-burn to instantly onboard users and if it were launched immediately there might still be a slight chance of overtaking Bitcoin as the blockchain with the most mined value and thus network effects (and certainly overtaking Litecoin’s mined value in the competition over which altcoin will provide the high volume transactional blockchain). 😉 Such a proof-of-“work” design as I envision would also hypothetically improve upon Satoshi’s insecure proof-of-work by being secure against a future quantum computer. That doesn’t mean I would implement such a thing. Remember I quit due to health problems. I might sell the design idea if someone offered me enough money for it.
  9. It’s interesting to contemplate as an extension of what proof-of-work is teaching us about primacy of relative energy as the fundamental metric of objectivity, that we humans are just an astrological process. Proof-of-work although actually extropian is some sense, is still “dystopian” in the existential philosophical sense that humanity as it views itself as existentially more significant than it is, i.e. humanity ostensibly doesn’t yet accept that its raison d'être is just as an energy and entropy conduit/facilitator on an astrological scale. Yet small things grow faster. A Biblical interpretation may still view us as the center of a Godly universe that must go forth and multiply in an entropic, energy density objective manner. Something for me to contemplate more deeply in the future. Someone mentioned to me after reading this blog that we may end up with a Dyson sphere of BTC mining.

@realr0ach wrote:

As for the whole stock/flow deal, it makes a lot of bad assumptions like assuming the entire planet is willing to be the greater fool for imaginary, valueless bitcoins when they aren't, or that Bitcoin even has a valid Schelling point in the first place when it doesn't. If S/F was valid for shitcoins, there wouldn't be a mountain of dead PoW altcoins already.

Stock/flow only works on an actual commodity that humans need and NOBODY actually needs Bitcoin. It's a fake commodity. If you hoard all 21 million, the entire planet can just ignore you like you don't even exist. If you hoard all the physical silver, the world doesn't get to ignore you and stock/flow actually functions. Tricking the goyim to hoard a fake, valueless commodity instead of a real one might be the greatest Jew scam of all time because it grants you absolutely zero power while pretending it does.

There was a Zerohedge poll on Bitcoin a week or two ago that I think showed 70% of users being anti-Bitcoin and only 30% pro (something around those numbers). Bitcoin is overwhelmingly hated on Zerohedge and by much of the public in general. People know the kikes like Larry Summers are pushing for a cashless society slavery system and do not want part of ANY digital currency whatsoever.

Everyone has no choice but to accept that proof-of-work is an objective meritocracy based on marginal energy per token mined. This is what gives gold its valuation. This is the way it has always been. Bitcoin is not really new, from an economic standpoint, just a technological innovation on gold.

Society needs a meritocratic standard of valuation. That is why it embraced gold. Once you understand that the marginal energy expended by token mined is what gives gold (and proof-of-work) its MERITOCRATIC valuation, then you understand that everybody NEEDS Bitcoin to exist. And they better get some BTC else they’re going to worth much less soon.

Of course 70% will be wrong. The “MAJORITY must always be wrong” because of the nature’s entropic need for a power-law distribution of wealth. And the majority will lose the illusion of wealth they thought they had because of it. Meritocracy is objective, not a democracy. Democracy is an illusion of egalitarian value (which obviously can’t exist in nature).


@zoidsoft,

Please re-read my prior comment post as I augmented it significantly, corrected some points, and removed the inquiry about your encrypted message. You may want to remove the mention of the encrypted message and I will also edit this reply to remove my mention of it. So we don’t abuse readers with off-topic verbiage.

The question is kind of moot at this point AFAIC since I'm not vulnerable

BTC that isn’t stored in legacy Satoshi v0.5.3 address which begin with a 1 and instead are stored in the “soft-forked” altcoin Bitco[i]n Core protocol addresses (aka SegWit) which begin with a 3, will be donated in the future to the miners when they take all those said “pay to anyone” SegWit donations.

but I thought that anything with more than about 6 confirmations is pretty much set in stone (segwit or not).

Incorrect.

I've noticed that certain high profile OG's (such as John McAfee and Andreas Antonopoulos) still use the old address format (hmmmmm). Not sure how stripping transactions that start out with a 3 would work from the miners perspective unless of course it was a 51% attack or within the 6 confirmation threshold.

You presumably don’t understand the mechanism. See my explanation below. And McAfee wasn’t the first one who discovered this issue. My links below to Trilema.com are the original source (details were in the logs). McAfee is a wannabee (more important than he is) copycat.

In Satoshi’s protocol those Bitco[i]n Core SegWit addresses are “pay to anyone”. Which means when a miner group with significant enough clout (i.e. probably significant hashrate aided by wealthy hodlers with millions of BTC who know Bitcoin must remain immutable or it loses its sui generic lead) starts spending those SegWit to themselves, that will cause the altcoin Bitco[i]n Core to furk (fuck/fork) off. Then since only so many donated SegWit can fit in each block, many other miners will join in the taking of the BTC booty at no cost by stopping their mining on the Bitco[i]n Core altcoin and instead mining on the Satoshi real, original, immutable Bitcoin chain. Bye byeee Bitco[i]n Core…

Contrary to conventional and popular thought, the taking of the SegWit donations and kicking off the idiot snowflakes who believe cryptocurrency is a democracy, will actually increase the valuation of Bitcoin or at least not interfere with its S/F valuation march higher. Reason being that minions will be kicked off of Bitcoin anyway. And enriching the miners means more energy expended on mining, which in the S/F valuation model means a faster rise in the market cap and price. Thus all the value that was perceived to be in Bitcoin Core will be sucked into Bitcoin sending Core towards 0 and Bitcoin up even faster.

About that sui generis position:

Volatility costs: Often people forget to consider volatility costs which depends on your holding period. Altcoins typically have higher volatility than Bitcoin which has the nasty effect of scaling with transaction size. A hypothetical example:

LTC: $10 payment + 10% vol + 0.01 fee = $1.01
BTC: $10 payment + 1% vol + 0.20 fee = $0.30
LTC: $100 payment + 10% vol + 0.05 fee = $10.05
BTC: $100 payment + 1% vol + $1.00 fee = $2.00

 Copied CryptoNight proof-of-work from Monero/Bytecoin.

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Monero has tried and failed to maintain ASIC-resistant mining with CryptoNight, i.e. Monero is now entirely centralized and lost immutability as the developers+community change the proof-of-work algorithm often to try to fend off ASICs. There’s some new research for an attempt to make a CPU ASIC-resistant miner, but I remain (as I explained in 2016) very skeptical because a) CPUs are designed for maximum throughput (e.g. speculative ILP and OoOE), not maximum efficiency, and b) “There's No Such Thing as a General-purpose Processor”.

@ifdefelse wrote:

Monero is planning as a final desperation move to adopt RandomX which is related to that research I cited above. I have analyzed RandomX and explained to its creators why I’m quite confident that it will not be ASIC resistant.

Even worse, RandomX would apparently likely entirely centralize the mining at the end game, which is antithesis of its stated design objective! Lol!

I also provided a layman’s terminology explanation.

Again the Monerotards troll me, but I have been correct every damn time. I even told Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson in 2013 that Vitalik’s Dagger/Ethash proof-of-work wouldn’t be ASIC resistant. You may also want to see my recent comments about Snowblossom’s proof-of-work.

Note Ethereum’s tentative plan to switch to ProgPow is also flawed. I raised the issue at ProgPow’s Github repository. And ASIC experts are confident they can get 3X – 10X improvement over a GPU.

I am 99.9% certain that CPU and GPU ASIC resistant proof-of-work is impossible and doomed especially as the market cap of crypto increases, then the ASIC economies-of-scale are increasing.

Note Monero is the only major cryptocurrency to hard fork its proof-of-work. They’ve lowered their stature to that of a centralized shitcoin like Ethereum. Ethereum hard furks whenever Vitalik gets a hard-on. I found a hilarious video where Vitalik does a teapot-calling-the-kettle-black by accusing EOS of centralization and he is challenged by a Chinese person in the audience.

Note all links above are as usual archived at archive.is and archive.org where you can find them if they go dead.

So this is a situation similar to what happened with Ethereum when it split into Eth Classic and Eth? So in the case of segwit (with the transaction headers off chain in a separate database) the soft fork eventually becomes a hard fork... I'm having trouble visualizing how the transactions embedded in the blockchain (splitting the 3's from the 1's in the hashed strings) can be split off without violating the hashes against previous UTXO's. Will there simply be two competing histories and one that becomes worthless? If I could see it in code, I think this would make more sense to me. Not disputing that it can happen, just as it did in Ethereum, just don't understand the particulars of what commands they used on the blockchain to do it (for ETH/Classic).

Not familiar enough with how the segwit data being off chain could be used to spend. I read Mastering Bitcoin by Andreas Antonopoulos (well skimmed over it is more accurate) and understand the broadest level basics (elliptic curves and the immutability of the hashed blocks, merkle trees, bloom filters, etc). That book is also probably very dated by now.

Unless there are mitigating circumstances (c.f. below), lowest-cost proof-of-work mining requires electricity that is generated 24 hours a day, because electric storage is too expensive. So the economics of solar are very interesting because it can’t be a primary source for proof-of-work mining.

Solar orbital space mines? I think Blockstream now has satellites in orbit, not sure I like the idea of them mining in space (too centralized), but the cost of achieving earth orbit is astronomical (I know, bad pun).

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BTC that isn’t stored in legacy Satoshi v0.5.3 address which begin with a 1 and instead are stored in the “soft-forked” altcoin Bitco[i]n Core protocol addresses (aka SegWit) which begin with a 3, will be donated in the future to the miners when they take all those said “pay to anyone” SegWit donations.

Here's a list of the top most wealthy bitcoin addresses. The top five are all Segwit addresses and only 3 are of the original header on chain type.

Screen Shot 2019-05-28 at 3.06.41 PM.png

At what point does it make mathematical sense to seize the "pay to anyone" segwit? Is there some sort of game theoretical Schelling point around which miners could coordinate? Seems to me that in the short term that such a massive theft would crash the price of bitcoin in the short term as many will panic not understanding what is going on and flee the marketplace. These things have happened in the past (Mt Gox, DAO hack of ETH, etc) and the result crashed the price each time.

A move of claiming only the top 20 segwit addresses alone right now would exceed the number of bitcoin stolen from Mt Gox. (>850,000 BTC). If such an attack happens, then soon afterwards might be the cheapest bitcoin available causing a quick rush to buy in. I remember something similar happen when watching ETH in June 2017 when it was announced on Twitter that Vitalik Buterin had died and 10 minutes later he tweeted a photo of himself calling out the lie. ETH had flash crashed to 10 cents from about $300 and quickly rebounded.

Note that the top five addresses are all centralized exchange cold wallet addresses. One might want to watch these addresses for the tip-off should they suddenly move their cold storage to header on chain addresses. Hard to keep a secret like this for long (if your theory is correct).

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