Friday Baseball Prospectus - BA's Hot Sheet - July 7th
This will be a Friday publishing of great minor leaguers to invest in. Information will be drawn from BA's weekly Prospect Hot Sheet.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-july-7/#8JrQxCw5CJVVSCjk.97
Triston McKenzie, RHP, Indians (19)
High Class A Lynchburg (Carolina)
The rail-thin teen is moving into the upper echelon of pitching prospects thanks to a fastball he can push to 94 mph, a curveball that scouts grade as future plus and solid-average command. If he can bulk up, which is his goal, he could check off boxes for physicality and durability, two keys to achieve success as a big league starter.
Monogrande's Take
T-Mac is looking like he's going to be a top of the rotation starter. His stuff isn't readily availabe, but buy it up when it does. He has excellent command, and the curveball is simply a beauty.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Blue Jays (18)
Low Class A Lansing (Midwest)
Son of Vlad enjoyed his final week in the Midwest League. Reports circulated Thursday that he and Bo Bichette will be promoted to high Class A Dunedin. Guerrero has plus raw power and can drive the ball out to all fields and also projects to be an above-average hitter. For a teenager, he has tremendous strike-zone awareness and bat-to-ball skills.
Monogrande's Take
Vladdy was signed by the Blue Jays in 2015, when he was still 16 years old. His dad was a great pro player, and it looksl ike Vlad is going to be even better. He is going to be an amazing power hitter. Can you imagine Aaron Judge but better?
Jorge Mateo, SS/OF, Yankees (22)
Double-A Trenton (Eastern)
Mateo ranked as the Yankees’ top prospect entering 2016, but underperformance, off-field issues and an influx of talent made him almost a forgotten man. After a pedestrian start in his third year at high Class A, a promotion to Double-A has reinvigorated Mateo. With his top-of-the-scale speed and surprising pop, Mateo is likely the organization’s most tradeable asset this month.
Monogrande's Take
Jorge Mateo is one of the best prospects in the Yankees system. In a system where players are dropping like flies, Jorge Mateo might not be far from being called up. He's a rare combination of top-of-the-charts speed with spray-all-over-the-field hitting power. He's going to be like Billy Hamilton but faster and better.
Carlos Tocci, OF, Phillies (21)
Double-A Reading (Eastern)
The Phillies have long waited for Tocci to break through, and it might be happening this year. Still just 21, Tocci is showing improved control of the strike zone and he’s using a more level swing path. His average on balls in play is a career-high .367, meaning some regression is likely.
Monogrande's Take
Tocci was drated in 2012 and was pegged as the future of the Phillies - especially before J.P. Crawford and Mickey Moniak was drafted. It's a good thing the Phillies haven't given up on him though - he's finally hitting like he belongs in the majors. Call up is imminent.
Billy McKinney, OF, Yankees (22)
Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (International)
The 2013 first-rounder has picked a great time to get hot because the Yankees are limping through a spate of injuries. McKinney has long been known as a hit-over-power player, but since his move to Triple-A he has shown the ability to pop the ball over the wall and could find himself getting the next shot in the bigs.
Monogrande's Take
Billy McKinney has traveled a bit since he was drafted, being traded from the Athletics to the Cubs. He was traded again from the Cubs to the Yankees last year. He was always the top prospect in each system. With plus speed, plus hitting, and plus power, Billy McKinney has potential to be an eye- opening revelation for the two teams that passed on him.
That's it! I hope you enjoyed this content!
Last week, I was high on Scott Kingery. He has a chance to break out this year, and boy do the Phillies need it.
Check out my more focused prospectus here: Alex Verdugo, Mickey Moniak, Michael Chavis
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They are bringing them up young. The guy who is 22 in Triple A. That is pretty nuts.
Well a lot of high school talents are panning out. Look at Clint Frazier with the Yanks and Corey Seager with the Dodgers.
It is an interesting strategy for sure. Ultimately it ends up being a pretty good product on the field but to me it would make more sense to get more guys out of the independent leagues. They are already battle tested and not such a long term project.
It's my understanding that they value potential over immediate impact. A lot of the guys in the independent leagues are guys that hit their peak in terms of their athleticism.
Its not really true as far as the athleticism stand point. Most people are going to peak athletically and skill wise between 28 to 32 and most players in Indy ball are younger than that. Most have to give it up because financially they can't continue to do it. The amount of talent there is oftentimes unbelievable. I played in the United League which went bankrupt and saw players that made big league level plays for sure. Most get stuck in the Indy leagues. I have seen teams of free agents beat teams of affiliated bonus babies day after day in spring training and during instructional league in the fall. Here is a story of a player who actually started the season in the United League and then went to the American Association and was lucky enough that a Pirates scout gave him a shot. He started the season making $800 / month and then 3 months later he is in the MLB striking out the side. Don't get me wrong the guys in affiliated ball and in the big leagues are damn good. But there is all types of talent who never got their shot in Independent ball who would run over the affiliated minor league guys.
Wow. I didn't know that you were a ball player, that's really awesome. I disagree with you one major thing - I think that the whole "athletic peaking age" of 28-32 is a myth, to be honest with you. Baseball is a marathon - you should know - and it wears you out quicker and earlier. That's why some players have what's often called a "fallow" year, where their production just dips or they can't stay out on the field because of injuries. When you look at the most productive superstars in the majors, it's the guys in their early 20's. After 26, you'll find players start to take chunks of seasons or even whole seasons "off" - statistic-wise. You can see that in guys like Dustin Pedroia or Robbie Cano.
That said, I don't want to disparage the level of talent in the indy leagues. It's just that I know from a few of my friends in analytics that age becomes almost a blinding factor for them - they'd much rather pick up a 16 year old that throws 75 than a 29 year old that throws 86.
Playing almost everyday beats the hell out of you for sure and injuries do occur which messes up the production.
With affiliated ball they just won't let anyone in the door that oftentimes isn't sitting 92 or 93 out of indy ball even if the person is super effective. It is like all these submarine guys or guys throwing slower have been able to stay in the affiliated system and their numbers allow them to stay but getting in the door from the outside with other arm angles or below 92 or 93 is almost impossible. But guys like Surgio Romo couldn't really amp up the heat that much but he could freeze the best in the game with a 79 mph slider.
I'm still going to hold my position that 28-32 is athletic prime for almost all sports baring major injury. I can understand why you are saying it is younger and we could go back and forth on different players and what their best years were or Olympic athletes and what their best years were or guys in the NBA.
It is hard to quantify the experience and athletic ability converging and especially with a team sport you have the factor of all the other guys they were teamed up with which can play a huge part. When you are winning attitudes are better and the teams gel better and pick each other up and all that. If you are losing all the time you could be in an athletic prime but everyones mad and knocking water coolers down in the dugout. LOL
I agree with almost all your points, haha. To your original point, we hope that the best talents are always represented on the field, but I'm sure there's a great hitter, pitcher or otherwise that never get the chance to go to the show.
Great post! It's always fun watching the young guys and finally seeing them up in the big league when there time comes and seeing how they do.
Always good to meet a fellow basball fan!
likewise! did you catch what Clint Frazier is doing for the Yankees?? Check my post on him
I will. I loved him when he got drafted by the Indians in 2013. I thought they gave up too much in that trade, giving up Clint Frazier.
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