Investing into scarcity and the weight of Blockchain

in #steem5 years ago (edited)

Pretty much, I have my 2.5 year old daughter to thank for being on Steem as if it wasn't for the challenges she faced, I would never have been pushed into a position of such desperation I would try anything, including fake internet money. Of course, I have learned a great deal about blockchain and crypto in the last two years like, we can make the fake money real, if we can get enough people to believe it isn't fake. Just like real money.

Most of what I do on Steem stems from my family and my will to do right by them, provide for them and hopefully deliver enough space that they are able to do more than have a life of subsistence. Along the way, I hope I can help many others do similarly for themselves and their own family too.

A few months ago @acidyo mentioned a ledger Nano S on sale through his reference and I decided to pick one up. Up until now I have kept my various coins in other ways but figure it was time to get a bit more serious about it. I haven't opened it yet, but I am going to > SOON

Nearly all of my coin holdings are in Steem I think that I will take the little I have of other coins and move them into one location for storage and, forget about them. I am also going to start buying in but I am going to diversify a little as while I believe in Steem very heavily, there are going to be uses for many other cryptos too and having a little put away of other coins mitigates a bit of the risk. There is still risk.

However, something I heard stuck with me the other day and that was that there is not enough Bitcoin in the world for everyone to even have 0.01 BTC. I did the math.

0.01 x 7,000,000,000 people = 70,000,000 Bitcoin needed but as we are aware, there will only be 21,000,000 available. So that means there is only really enough for everyone to have ~0.0033 Bitcoin. At the moment, that is worth about 12 dollars.

While not a talented numbers person, I do find numbers fascinating and wish that I could understand and play around with them much more than my feeble skills allow. No matter what the precision is though, it would appear that if mass adoption of crypto happens, the value of many coins has to explode and, more than Bitcoin will be included in that run. Yes, I think Steem is going to be among them and no matter what people think, it can have a much, much, much higher value than current price. As said, 30 billion market cap puts Steem in the 100 dollar range and while 30 billion sounds like a lot, it really isn't very much at all in the grand scheme of things and, there are some grand schemes going on in this world, as we are fully aware.

When I can start (after clearing some debts), I am going to start laddering further into crypto and make sure that some part of the meager savings I manage to squirrel away for my daughter is going to go into crypto also. While my wife is not fully on board yet with all the things I do on and for Steem and where I think it is going, she is definitely not on board with me using our daughters savings on it. So, I am going to tighten my belt a little further (I can comfortably skip a meal) and cut a few personal expenditures from my own spending. I don't actually spend very much on anything at all but, I can definitely find a way to get a few extra euros together and make a small purchase on payday each month.

I have never done this before but my new plan is to make a very strict habit of buying something each month rather than trying to save up and buy a larger amount occasionally. Even if it is 12 dollars a month, at current prices that would be 0.036 Bitcoin a year and in 15.5 years when my daughter turns 18, that may have some significant value attached to it. If not, it has cost me a few coffees and some donuts over my lifetime. A small price to pay for a chance at my daughter's financial well-being.

Making a habit out of it when the money comes in means that it is gone before I have a chance to use it and it has an out of sight, out of mind effect on me. This is also why I am going to start using the ledger as even while I do like playing around trading, once I have most of it out of sight, I ma far less likely to make stupid trades, as I have done many times before.

While I cannot guarantee that this will ever amount to anything, there are people who collect beanie Babies in the hope that one day they are going to be worth something to a collector due to scarcity. For many of the coins now including Steem, there is going to be scarcity.

In my last post I spoke that if 10 million accounts were holding equal numbers when the inflation hits 1%, each would have 65 Steem. What if there were 1 billion that wanted a piece? that would be, 0.65 Steem. Obviously, that isn't going to work now is it? There are about 100 million Ethereum currently (an uncapped supply also I think) Which means if 1 billion wanted a piece they can have 0.1 Ether each. 18.4 million Monero with 0.3 added every minute puts it in a similar position as Bitcoin... Hmmmm....

Not much crypto going around once you start bringing in mass adoption really is there. While buying into the volatility of crypto is risky, long term I don't see many alternatives (other than complete death of the tech) than a curve upward that will continue as more and more value piles onto the chains. @theycallmedan mentioned in his latest video about chains absorbing billion dollar companies and, it is just a matter of time.

I spoke to the strategy VP of my company a few weeks ago and he was highly surprised that there are blockchains that could buy the company many, many times over with their market cap. The only thing that really stops the blockchains doing it is that the people aren't organised enough to do so at this point. However, at some point the communities including on Steem will start organizing themselves and investing into real world and, real world will invest into Steem.

Again like @theycallmedan used the analogy of blockchains being islands and soon, the businesses will discover the value of being on them. As this value weight starts to mount on the blockchains, the blockchains become extremely powerful tools and offer a whole range of value that people are not yet recognizing.

Yes, many believe corporations are evil but that is not true, some may be. All of the small businesses however are run by people like me, a one person company and a husband and father that wants the best for his family without harming others in the process. For small businesses, blockchains can be a vital lifeline in a business world that is being swallowed by mega corporations. Those mega corporations however need us as consumers, we don't need them to consume.

A bit at a time, the world is going to change enormously.
It starts with us, ends with us.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]

BTW, sorry @theycallmedan for the tags but, I would like more people to think a little more like you do on where the future is potentially headed as getting the view could better help them understand the why.

Sort:  

This was real. As tight as things may be, you're lucky in that you have some powerful purpose behind your effort here. I don't even have my cat to motivate me anymore, so it's all just out of pride.

It's essential to diversify, so it's good that you're realizing this now during the base-ish of the bear market. That's some good fortune.

While you have to invest only what you can either afford to lose, or is possible with your current expenses, the laddering approach with x whenever that checkpoint comes is smart so you can always feel accomplished that you're building something. However, the more you can stretch when you see a massive pullback from the last run like around now, the better. It might make a bigger difference than we can imagine if a swan event happens.

I might even suggest funneling a little Steem weekly to your exchange for BTC/ETH. That'll reduce the $ strain and/or accelerate your accumulation. You'll always be able to earn more Steem, but per the theory you mentioned above, you won't always be able to get your hands on BTC so easily. Also, if the economy shifts to using crypto for life expenses, you may actually need BTC to maneuver around to pay your daughter's cell phone bill, etc..

We're on totally different spectrums because I did the heavy lifting for my portfolio a decent while back, and then found Steem by accident later on. I was so emotionally attached to my core 2 holdings, that I committed to earning Steem slowly in tiny slices and never bought any. The stubborn side of me still exists today, where I should drop $ into Steem (even laddering), but I tend to prefer topping off on my offline stuff because I can EARN it here. You can't EARN BTC or ETH (unless you have a chuck of ETH you can stake in the future). So maybe divesting from here a little in the short term, while still earning at a nice clip to replenish, could be a safer move than not.

The cold storage via Nano is a wise move. Be very diligent about making backup copies of your recovery phrase and don't take pics of it to leave on your devices. A very good local desktop wallet with world-class customer service for nearline storage is Exodus. It supports a lot of coins and is super simple. You can also convert coins within the wallet using ShapeShift for ease.

Also, if you have high volume thrift stores by you, that's a great way to score some resale profit weekly that could help with things.

I rambled, but hope this is helpful.

*This is not financial advice yadda yadda.

Thanks for this, it is helpful. I actually use exodus now but would still prefer to keep less there (not that there's much).

I am considering taking some of my Steem earnings and diversifying but I am also pretty attached to it :D

Thrifting is not much of a thing here but it has been interesting to see what you are doing.

Back to this later... Work calls.

Emotional attachment is why I'm not set right now. I fell for that hold long thing through several bull runs where I had layup chances to take even 20% of profit out to reinvest later or have some play money. Hindsight is 20/20, but I should've followed the basics instead of loving my coins because I was proud I got them before they blew up, and didn't want to bail on keeping them safe on my Nano for the future. Doing some profit taking would've made a drastic impact with the price correction.

There's a balance between strongly believing in something and leveraging opportunities with it at the same time to further redeem its valuable and feel like you're not selling out on your long term faith. Steem is unique because we can manually mine it. Other coins are too expensive to mine for the trouble and up front costs.

I just came across your daughter's account today. Glad to see that it gets strong support.

Do whatever works best for you, but you have crypto that you can leverage for more crypto daily, while still growing it the same time to the tune you may siphon off. Fiat can keep things more comfortable (or double the diversification power). Remember to never invest more than you can afford to lose.

At somewhere near the top of the next run I plan on taking a percentage out to clear a little debt and then hold some for a buy back.

Yeah, my daughter's account gets a little support sporadically but I also use @ocdb on it, the @OCD support bot. I hope one day all the bits of work her dad has done benefit her.

When you speak of the holding you sound regretful but, this is still just the start which means, it will just take a bit longer for you to get clear.

You could also film your adorable daughter telling whichever frick and frack are dueling at the time to halt flag wars in a way no human being could ever say no to.

5,000 Steem appearance fee flat rate.

Lol, not a bad idea.

It's pretty amazing to think about the Bitcoin amounts 'per head' - and how 'owning Bitcoin' won't be the thing to talk about, just owning Satoshi's is what people will talk about, as they will represent a dollar, or a cup of coffee... Buying 12$ of crypto per month sounds like a great idea, I'm starting to diversify a bit myself and am buying more regularly :-)

I just had deja-vu when reading this. Good omen.

I have a 1000 satoshis!! :D

It is definitely going to get interesting as time moves on and the adoption kicks into gear. We are nowhere near that yet of course... thankfully :)

I set aside $20-25 a week. Only way I can invest. There is always something more important until you don’t have the funds to buy it.

People do a horrible job organizing on a large scale. They do hold all the power (untapped) as consumers

Who is this @theycallmedan person. Does he have some good ideas.
Did you meet him at steemfest. That other fellow you met there did not work out so well.

There is always something more important until you don’t have the funds to buy it.

lol, how true is this.

I haven't met him other than through his content on Steem.

Which other fellow? I met many :D

Which other fellow? I met many :D

That is what we Hollywood author’s call , writers embellishments. “Based on” a truth. Not necessarily true.
Hahaha

I really should get me one of those fancy offline crypto storage thingies.

I love the fact it's unopened. Precisely the kind of thing I'd do!

I bought 50 steem a day through Decemeber. It's a good strategy. Much calmer than waiting for the bottom.

I'll probably be doing something similar to you from now on... a few 10s of dollars of crypto every month.

Posted using Partiko Android

My gym membership is unopened this year two... And most of last :)

I wish I had been doing the same the whole time. 10 dollars a week is not hard to find and sometimes it might be 5 Steem, sometimes 50 but, it all adds up.

Ah my gym membership is something I do use! Helps that it's only 10 mins walk away of course.

I just wish there was a cheap way of buying small amounts of btc wout fees adding quite a large %.

Posted using Partiko Android

I just wish there was a cheap way of buying small amounts of btc wout fees adding quite a large %.

Yep, the fees are pretty high on small amounts which is part of the reason I have bought larger amounts less often in the past.

Those mega corporations however need us as consumers, we don't need them to consume.

You do if they are the only producers left.
(supporting my theory that whether it's through corporate fascism or socialism -left or right wing - it all ends in the same place - with communism (a centralized means of production).... if we are not all very careful.

I hope (think) you are correct with the future of crypto - but I think the model will require a drastic overhaul to fit with universal ethical behaviors.

They are made up of us to produce too so, there is that. From an ownership perspective I have spoken many times about how it pushes all toward a few but, it is us who are making the consumer choices on what we buy and, who we buy from.

There is a long way to go in crypto and it will change heavily over time. Looking at it now as the product is like looking at a Model T Ford as the end of development for the car.

it is us who are making the consumer choices on what we buy and, who we buy from.

Yup!
What a dismal state of affairs!

There is a long way to go in crypto and it will change heavily over time. Looking at it now as the product is like looking at a Model T Ford as the end of development for the car.

Very good analogy, I agree.
(I don' t suppose you have a Tardis that I could borrow, do you? lol)

Mine is more of a re-Tardis

Oh, we've all got those..

Very interesting post, as usual and you have given me a few things to ponder. I definitely like the idea of buying a little each payday and try to do that now. I know I should diversify but right now most of what I have is in Steem, Litecoin and XRP.
I think buying bitcoin is a good idea, just to have some bitcoin. I think your right, crypto isn’t going away and as big money learns about it more and more will happen.
Take care and I wish your family good health.

A little bit of diversity might be just what the doctor ordered to bring in a little bit of perspective too. I sold very close to all of my EOS for Steem a few months ago as I figured, I am not going to use it. I don't regret the decision but I should have probably kept a little from an investment perspective.

There is even less BTC available if you account for lost and locked ones!

Yep, it is the same for most of them I'd say and it doesn't factor in all the holders. There is going to obviously be some fun and games with the banks but you know the rule, if you don't own the keys...

RIP @steemgiveaway, the funds on the account + unclaimed are lost forever. :D

I wonder how much is trapped on Steem? I don't know if it is possible to get an accurate number but I'd say it time, it will add up to plenty.

Yeah it's kind of impossible to tell unless someone tells about it. I remember a Steemian in 2017 I believe mentioned he lost like 10-20k SP in a house fire. :/

Who knows with some of the old and big accounts, only time will tell. They'll be our Satoshi Nakamoto's. :D

I need to make sure my keys are everywhere. I will send them to you in a DM just in case ;D

Please don't, I don't want people hacking me thinking I have your keys saved on my PC. XD

Dollar Cost Averaging is definitely a great approach! While I know that like me, you are jealous with your Steem earned, you can also consider using some of your payouts to convert Steem/SBD every month to a wallet support by Ledger as well! @blocktrades is great for it! If not, your thought will work as well!

Posted using Partiko iOS

Steem earned, you can also consider using some of your payouts to convert Steem/SBD every month to a wallet support by Ledger as well! @blocktrades is great for it!

That is an idea that I have toyed with but have never tried. I have to start getting more serious with it all though as every day I see more potential. I met @blocktrades at Steemfest and he was one of the people that opened up a few more lines of thought on various matters. There are some very smart people around here, the future of Steem has a great deal more potential in it than many give it credit.

It's fun to look at some of the numbers and imagine where they can go. That was one of my original thoughts re: bitcoin.
Any other investment vehicle has a maximum. Some ceiling beyond which it simply won't go.
Either the owner/manager will pay back debt, or the taxman will jack up their rate; no matter how well BHP does this year, they won't go up x20.
It really doesn't matter how well they do, there are too many reasons it just won't happen.
Crypto doesn't have that. It can moon.

If BHP really, really screws over the environment a bit more, it could squeeze a few more percent out :)

The ceiling on crypto is so astronomically high from where we are, the moon is closer.

Congratulations @tarazkp! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

You published a post every day of the week

Click here to view your Board
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word STOP

To support your work, I also upvoted your post!

Support SteemitBoard's project! Vote for its witness and get one more award!

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.20
TRX 0.13
JST 0.030
BTC 64010.25
ETH 3401.16
USDT 1.00
SBD 2.62