Bitcoin trading ideas. 15 -> 30 Jan. Retrospective analysis and forecast using Elliott Waves
All right, folks!
I've posted several ideas of the BTCUSD price changes searching for the answer to: "What is the next move of Bitcoin?"
There were 3 options from the perspective of the Elliott Waves:
1. Simple ZigZig: still not finished
2. Double ZigZag: the first ZigZag is finished, the 2nd is not yet started. We are in the linking A-B-C wave.
3. Simple ZigZag: is finished & we are in the 1st wave of the impulse.
I've depicted both 2nd and 3rd ideas on the same chart. The reason I did it is the expectation of the leap to the $14 000 - $15 000 zone. Both 2nd and 3rd ideas allowed me to assume it.
Here is what we had on the 24th of January:
I mentioned, that the idea (of getting higher than $14 000) still works if the price will not bounce from the $11 600 level. It did not happen. Here is what happened:
Quick fake crossing and down. Here I can conclude, that " 3. Simple ZigZag is finished, we are in the 1st wave of the impulse" does not look realistic anymore. 1 is not an impulse . It is not a 1-2-3-4-5 type of wave and there are at least 2 reasons why:
- The 3rd wave is the shortest (yellow triangle)
- The bottom of the 4th wave is below the top of the 1-st wave.
NB! Please see my post describing how I count the waves if you do not feel confident here
So let's move on! Can it still be the double ZigZag?
Reminder for you, bro! Thanks for reading so far ;)
Only if the 1st wave (failed, with the yellow circle in the middle) can be considered as an A-B-C. In that case, here is our pattern:
We are going to dive very deep if that is sort of our future.
But what I also see here, is that the red (B)-(C) here does not really look like a an impulse for the same reasons as I have mentioned before: the 3rd wave is the shortest (yellow triangle) and the bottom of the 4th wave is below the top of the 1st wave
The first idea (1. Simple ZigZig - still not finished) is still the best match:
Here is the image posted on the 15th of January:
And here is the correction part now:
Looks very similar to the double ZigZag idea, but there is no "C is not an impulse" issue.
According to the 1st idea ( Simple ZigZig - still not finished) we are currently in the 3-rd wave. Which should usually be the strongest and never the shortest. I do not have any doubts about the strength of that wave today. That 1st idea is my primary pattern for today. My plan is to catch the end of the 3-rd wave and then sell on the 4-th corrective wave. And here is a tip I am going to use: the 4th wave should not get to the area of the 1-st wave: above ($9 750).
The idea of the A-B-C correction is not in conflict with the long-term vision posted on the 22nd of January. Chart left the trading corridor and had a quick journey to $20 000. The projection on the other side of the channel is possible:
Simple ZigZag idea is do not conflict with the idea of the symmetrical triangle as a continuation pattern considering the fake cross.
Not brilliant, I know, but shows the target of $6 000, so I won't be so much surprised.
I am going to keep counting the waves and will report as soon as there will be any changes. Go Bears!
I hope it was helpful.
Thanks for reading and stay tuned!
I don't think any TA could predict the news and dump we had today around Bitfinex and Tether, i say lets let the market cool off a bit.
I consider myself as a technical analyst, so I agree with John Dow, who told: "Everything there is to know is already reflected in the markets through the price". As I understand that sentence, the risks and fears and hopes were all reflected on the chart. Extremely fast growth during the last year is reflected and unrealized risks are reflected. Such a growth must be followed by the massive correction and for me, it makes no difference, what is the reason of the movement down. Definitely, there should be some trigger for the sale-off. The sceptical news about the largest exchange or the regulations for the biggest players in Korea or in China could compensate the ultimate growth. What we face now is the consequence of what we had before. Crazy crypto is looking for the balance...
Without going into a philosophical discussion about why TA works at all, i do understand this interesting perspective - "the market knows all", although i got no real data to support what i am about to say, my gut feeling is that this approach might be true for a well established mature and vastly larger market. With something so new, and relatively small (compared to traditional markets) an furthermore with relatively small amount of players controlling the liquid asset in play, i seriously doubt you can take manipulation out of the equation and thus as TA couldn't predict the timing of the rise i doubt it really predicted the timing of the correction.
For me, it is acceptable to drop the manipulation factor out of the equation and I accept the risks of unawareness about some market movements. There is so much noise around the cryptocurrency, so for me, it is just unreal to learn and follow all the fundamental material.
The good point for me is that there are enough aware people who post about to the massive mismatches or attractive projects. They feel comfortable doing their research an I am thankful, that I do not need to spend time for doing that part of business as well.
I've heard about the tether is scammy few month ago... and, considering that I was not really bully since around $10 000. Market did not react these days, but now it did. Hell knows why! That is wild wild west...
That is awesome man! Thanks for detailed analytics!