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RE: Bitcoin trading ideas. 15 -> 30 Jan. Retrospective analysis and forecast using Elliott Waves
I don't think any TA could predict the news and dump we had today around Bitfinex and Tether, i say lets let the market cool off a bit.
I consider myself as a technical analyst, so I agree with John Dow, who told: "Everything there is to know is already reflected in the markets through the price". As I understand that sentence, the risks and fears and hopes were all reflected on the chart. Extremely fast growth during the last year is reflected and unrealized risks are reflected. Such a growth must be followed by the massive correction and for me, it makes no difference, what is the reason of the movement down. Definitely, there should be some trigger for the sale-off. The sceptical news about the largest exchange or the regulations for the biggest players in Korea or in China could compensate the ultimate growth. What we face now is the consequence of what we had before. Crazy crypto is looking for the balance...
Without going into a philosophical discussion about why TA works at all, i do understand this interesting perspective - "the market knows all", although i got no real data to support what i am about to say, my gut feeling is that this approach might be true for a well established mature and vastly larger market. With something so new, and relatively small (compared to traditional markets) an furthermore with relatively small amount of players controlling the liquid asset in play, i seriously doubt you can take manipulation out of the equation and thus as TA couldn't predict the timing of the rise i doubt it really predicted the timing of the correction.
For me, it is acceptable to drop the manipulation factor out of the equation and I accept the risks of unawareness about some market movements. There is so much noise around the cryptocurrency, so for me, it is just unreal to learn and follow all the fundamental material.
The good point for me is that there are enough aware people who post about to the massive mismatches or attractive projects. They feel comfortable doing their research an I am thankful, that I do not need to spend time for doing that part of business as well.
I've heard about the tether is scammy few month ago... and, considering that I was not really bully since around $10 000. Market did not react these days, but now it did. Hell knows why! That is wild wild west...