Looking Like a Range
How could I start 2018 off any other way? Other than by posting a Bitcoin chart? 😂
It looks like we've got a nicely defined range in place . . .
. . . where anything can happen, but more often than not they are places where whipsaws frequently occur and traders get their accounts slowly eaten away . . . unless they're very disciplined and buy the bottom of the range (with close stops) and sell the top. These kinds of things are also quite often home to false breakouts as chasers are lured in and trapped. The old saying is that markets trend higher 25% of the time, trend lower 25% of the time, and trade sideways the rest. Trading ranges present good opportunities to take a break, but, in this case, it may well spell trend time in select Alts like STEEM, BTS, SYS, ADA, et al. that could very well moon while BTC "consolidates".
Anyhow, back to the range:
Clear upper and lower boundaries are confirmed by the upper and lower Bollinger Bands with the rising 55 day moving average bringing up the rear. Price is right in the middle, right at the mid-band. The big daily Fib. long is opposed by a now daily short (not shown on the chart). The MACD is trying to turn up at the zero line and the Stoch Momentum is doing the same in an attempt to get out of oversold. We've got 3 hours till EOD, and if we can hold current levels, we'll be able to take the word "trying" out of the previous sentence.
We'll have to wait and see, but right now I'm thinking that it might be a good January (for you know who), or at least not a bad one. Keep your fingers crossed!
@ cryptographic Out of the 4horseman (ADA BTS SYS STEEM) do you have any favorites?
I'm debating re balancing my portfolio, but keep wavering between my decision. Plus, I'm still looking to allocate some long term capital...
Decisions, decisions...
Also, what did you mean by, "We'll have to wait and see, but right now I'm thinking that it might be a good January (for you know who), or at least not a bad one." Didn't catch this one...
Believe it or not, my personal portfolio, with 2 ADA rebalancings, is still beating the "locked" model portfolio, in spite of ADA's huge run-up enormously benefitting the model portfolio!
One of the big reasons for that is that a good chunk of the ADA rebalancings went into STEEM in the 1 dollar range. Even with ADA mooning again, STEEM is outperforming. (See my Buy Low, Sell High post for more background on my feelings about good portfolio management. )
We always have to wait and see - it's ultimately always a probability play. A sideways month for BTC with the still lesser known but very good crypto alternatives playing catch up would be a good January, if you're positioned for that.
The 4 horsemen? It's hard to pick a favorite, but perhaps BTS is best positioned to "go viral" in the coming weeks and months, IMO.
Thanks for the insight and advice! AND CONGRATS ON THE ONE MILLION+ SIR!!! I'm definitely in awe of your trading abilities and will be highlighting your blog in my next post.
That's an intraday print. We've still got a couple of hours before it's official. 😉
What's more impressive though is the fact that my real portfolio, which I have managed and kept in balance by selling ADA twice now over the last two months of 2017 and buying laggards like STEEM (was a laggard when that happened), has kept pace! The locked portfolio currently has ADA at over 61% of the portfolio's weighting. That's completely insane from a risk management point of view. My real portfolio currently has ADA at a little over 17%, where it should be. Either way, ADA or BTS, which is the second most overweighted in the locked portfolio, or even STEEM, sooner or later, one of them was set to do what ADA has done. What the balanced portfolio does for you is to capture the individual big moves one at a time, if you're so lucky as to see them in isolation, and, theoretically your long term gains should be larger. This is still an example in the making, so we'll see if that holds true here too. As I say, the real accomplishment is the balanced portfolio management - when the balanced portfolio is keeping up with the hypothetical static benchmark, you've got something to write home about.
Buy Low, Sell High
Quite amazing that your real portfolio is keeping up with the locked one. Just goes to show the value of portfolio rebalancing.
You've convinced me and I've decided I need to rebalance. My current dilemma is that all 4 of the horseman are grinding at their highs. Currently, I'm heavily overweight ADA and also holding bts and steem. No sys position. What would @cryptographic do?
I would seriously consider adding Syscoin to the portfolio and I'd also look very seriously at BitUSD. After that, if there were still funds left over from the ADA sale, I'd probably distribute them to the laggards in proportion to their lagging percentages.
@cryptographic Unsure how to message you directly, have been following your $10k to 1M thread. You've hit 1M, congratulations! What are your thoughts and feelings about reaching this?
Unf@lkingbelievable!
I checked again, your "locked" portfolio is now at 1.18M...that's nearly 200k since 12 hours ago!! I've started my own challenge from $50k to 1M without day trading and wanted to ask- At what point do you start re-balancing portfolio? Let's say my XRP was meant to be 20% of portfolio and it goes above this. Do you do it at 25%, 30%, 40% etc?
Will you be blogging about positions and trades? I'd be interested in following along and tracking your progress!
I'm currently tracking it at Bitcointalk forum but am thinking about moving to Steemit instead. Really like the platform and will probably blog about my day job as well. Will see!
Thanks for the analysis @cryptographic.
I see a double-bottom forming on a pullback from a longer upward trend. I think we see a shot upward...passing the doji that formed the middle of the W is important.
After that, a test of the ATH is always an area of potential resistance...and the full verification of the W pattern being a trend reversal.
For me, I have difficulty calling a channel with one top as a reference point. Personally, I like to see two or three attempts before drawing channel lines. A second failure at the 19K+ mark would solidify that for me.
At this point, I think it blows past it if it gets there...I think the middle of the W resistance is the key one...A run up there with a pullback would really mess with the other indicators you posted which are lining up nicely for a bullish run.
That is what is awesome about charts, we can look at the same thing and see different things.
By the way, for full disclosure to all reading, I have some BTC but I am a HODL not a trader....
HODL of STEEM and BTS also. 😁
The middle of the double bottom, the neckline, is huge, no doubt about it. That's the 61.8% failure level of the daily halfway back short from highs that was originally sold into. Now the 50% is being respected on this rally off the second of the possible double bottom. Volume is lackluster at best on the buy side, and the 20 DMA, right there at the 50% is still holding strong. I'm not too awfully encouraged about strong upside from here just now, but, as I always say, anything is possible.
I feel like we have built good support in this range and hopefully we will be making another climb to the 20k ranges very soon, surely by the end of the month. We had to drop some at the end of 2017 so that we could start out 2018 with a steady increase. That's my thoughts any ways. Great post, thank you!
I never like to create too many prior expectations when it comes to talking about future possibilities, and that's why I usually limit myself to commenting the highest probabity scenarios. Nonetheless, anything can happen. All things considered though, and this includes the fundamentals and order flow as we know it - there is still very important demand for crypto coming from fiat - I think the most probable short to intermediate term scenario for BTC is choppy trading in a range, and most likely the range drawn on the chart. I'm thinking of months, but it could be weeks before a possible breakdown, which I'd give about a 30% chance at this point. If the lows hold, then it will be an eventual battle between bulls and bears to get back to the top of the range, the necessary requirement for a breakout to new highs. 20k is a long ways off in my view, and I think "good support" still needs a lot better foundation too. The longer we spend moving sideways, the more nervous the long them HODLers will get, causing more sell side pressure. As I said in the original post, I'd be looking at alternatives to the well known and now famous that had huge gains in 2017. Again, things like STEEM, BTS, SYS, ADA, GRS, NLG, DBG that are still very much under the radar could be the next big surprises that become household names. That's just my opinion though.
@cryptographic,
I used Bollinger Bands in Binary Option and made a huge success there! Then I shifted to crypto, but unfortunately I missed my skills of bollinger bands due to high fluctuation! You are not only using BB, you have MACD and STOCH! MA, EMA and RSI with them you can do whatever! I used them few years back and I don't why I forgot those valuable indicators! Thanks for reminding me how we can use them back! I will try, but I have another problem! In bittrex I don't know how to use those indicators very effectively! This is the main reason I have lost them and I didn't apply them to my crypto trading!
Without those indicators trading is really impossible! Like a blind man is trying to cross a highway :D So, what you shared today is highly valuable for any kind of trader on any kind of platform! Thank you very much and really appreciate your effort!
Cheers~
I use everything available that I find useful. That being said, there is no holy grail. Nevertheless, each indicator gives you something, more often than not simply historical information, but sometimes, when there's correlating signals, they can give you an edge projecting into the future, especially when combined with intermediate to long term fundamentals and basic risk management, which is the foundation upon which I build everything. With regards to settings and actual usage, I recommend going with the standard default settings - they're there for a reason, and the reason is that those default settings are usually what their inventors used most and what most people still look at.
A great place to learn more about TA is on StockCharts. It's comprehensive, accurate and run by trustworthy pros who are there to teach, not con. 😎
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school
@cryptographic,
Thank you for this information friend I will check this out! Great advise you provided me again!
Cheers~
I dont know if you saw this my friend....it is an @stan announcement about our favorite tokens outside STEEM.....
By the way, he keeps a 1,000 times multiple on monies using BTS...over the next couple years....
This is a HODL if there ever was one.
https://steemit.com/bitshares/@bluerocktalk/breaking-news-evander-holyfield-and-bitshares
This is where I think something really big is going to happen in the near future, and also where I've decided to make an exception to my normal portfolio management - I'm overweight BTS, and I won't be rebalancing until a substantially higher than normal level. I could get hurt (but still only percentage wise), but I think it's a huge opportunity that's being telegraphed to us and we'd be very stupid not to take advantage. That having been said, markets often do the most unexpected things and what we think is great sometimes gets crushed. This is probably the closest I get to actual "trading"!
@stan keeps offering up teasers. The announcement with Holyfield is interesting since he talks about $1M into $1B....Now maybe they have BTS they can offer him at 5 cents for the $1M...I dont know.
But a 1,000 X is pretty good from that level.
Perhaps there is a bit of marketer in @stan but I dont think he would be touting this stuff if he didnt have a whale of an announcement in his back pocket.
If he was shilling, that would be the end of BTS, sooner or later.
No way he's doing that. He's a straight shooter, and I'm sure he's just giving advanced hints to early adopters. He's also excited, and who wouldn't be!
I think that what we'll need to keep in mind though is that nothing ever goes anywhere in a straight line, but I'm not going to worry too much about that until we hit $5, or maybe $10. 😬
It is very interesting to look at the charts. I'm playing the lesser ranges but eyeing the longer frames. On the 12 we are still below the 7/21 or both below the 77MA, so it is going to provide solid resistance to the upside, on the 1 day, the 7 has crossed beneath the 21 signaling slow death or a sideways ranging action until longer term trend line can catch up. On the 2 we have golden cross which puts short term gains on the table, up to the longer term averages of the 6 hour at which point it will likely be rejected for the low end of the range. This time is great for trading if you know what you are doing and have discipline. Great to get fucked if you are chasing the dragon by the tail or jumping in and out with FOMO and panic sells. I love markets like this as it is when the traders trade, and those that failed to invest in themselves with knowledge slowly donate their capital to the market..
When two men meet, one with experience and one with money. At the end, the one with the experience leaves with the money and the one that had the money leaves with experience. --Warren Buffet
That's a great Buffet quote. Oh how true it is!
As for your TA, I think I have to agree across the board. I'm very inclined to think we're going to see another test of lows, or at least more consolidation at the lower end of the range, before we do anything else.
I'll be watching closely using the techniques developed by Richard Wyckoff as described by Jim Forte:
https://es.scribd.com/document/28001506/Anatomy-of-a-Trading-Range-by-Jim
Well then great minds think a like, I believe we could see BTC move in a more normal fashion wants it does decide to go up. Instead of climbing like there is no tomorrow it may pick a longer term trend line at some point and use that to make less volatile moves up. I'm not sold on a full recovery as of yet, but happy to play the ranges. I think page 54 of the book you provided sums it up. May see a BTC bump up.. seems to be holding tight to the $14,800 -$15.000 range..
Jumped the creek today. John Bollinger said that he likes to think of the 20 DMA as a "dynamic" creek. Looking for signs of strength now. Will we get them? A trip up to the top of the range? Already? The 61.8% failure level for the daily halfway back short has been breached to the upside too.
I grabbed some at $14,800 you can check my daily market report.. will catch the pull and sideways in the $16000-$16500 area, likely a $15,700 to be had as well.
The odds of us seeing 20k in the short term are getting better as we speak. The 15,700 touch on Bittrex was another measured move 50% retrace entry on the one hour chart (slightly front run though). Nice stair stepping and back filling. Looks very technical, and, given all that, I would expect to see some selling if and when we get back to 20k, and that would be to set up another dip to buy . . . if the big daily long from the double bottom lows is for real. Its targets are 23,000 and change, 25,000 and change, and 28,000 and change. Remember, the opposing short was invalidated, and that, in turn, is a first confirm on the long . . .
Edit: after looking at things with your 7,21,77 MAs, instead of saying the 50% measured move retrace was front run, I'd now say that it still hasn't traded. Looking like a setup.
I am still feeling bullish in the longer term, very much so.. I think we may have been presented with another tremendous buying opportunity to capitalize on. That said, use your charts in the daily and look at moving average crossovers, find me an instance where a 10/30 or 7/21 upside cross on the daily failed to translate into big gains in the longer term. This is what it is I feel and we are in a shakeout again.. no big deal to me.. I will be alleviating myself of some of those discounted alts I grabbed when BTC jumped 13-15 when it hits bottome again in the 12,900 range possibly.
Shakeout is what it looks like to me too, but this might not be the end of it just yet - we might need to meet up with the 77 before resuming a sustainable uptrend. 😉
And I'm even more sold than ever on the idea of a range bound trade between 11k and 20k.
Glad I kept to my rules and did not buy, did pick up the ETH though at 915... BTC 12 hour may go bad again.. sigh... well good time to add to BTC with Alts on Bittrex
Hello @dennisschroeder,
Today you discussed about trade by using few indicators that professional traders use than getting signals from weird sources. MACD & STOCH says it's a bull trend & what BB says little unclear for me. Extraordinary good writing & knowledge sharing via your posts, which is very rare in any platform.
I saw people share trading tips & signals, most of their posts are on Trending list of Steemit. But unfortunately they are not revealing their secrets. But you do. This is the different between you & others. You are giving the knowledge & they are giving the signals. Therefore, people need to understand what to choose. For me it's you :) Extraordinary good post with lots of valuable trading advises in this high fluctuation cryto world.
~@mywhale
Absolutely correct, and I appreciate your astutely pointing that out.
Hello @cryptographic,
By hodling Steem Dollars what you are planning to do? Like to hear your strategy about SBD trading.
~@mywhale
@cryptographic another great analysis indeed! Learning a bit more every day from them. I am still not sure what the MACD is for. Learning more about technical analysis in trading is something I want to do.
Again, I wanted to give you a big shout for all your support in the 11 chapters/posts full steemit guide!
Today I posted a new Chapter 4 of 11: Understanding How to Keep our Steemit and Steem Cryptocurrency Account Safe - How to Use the 5 Different Passwords - This is part 4 of the 11 Chapters (Full Guide) to help new people make their way on the platform.
Here is the link to this new Chapter/post:
https://steemit.com/steem/@gold84/chapter-4-of-11-understanding-how-to-keep-our-steemit-and-steem-cryptocurrency-account-safe-how-to-use-the-5-different-passwords
Again, huge thanks to you for inspiring me to continue doing this chapters, and for all your support!
Still! looking forward to hear from you with your additions, knowledge and experience in any of the Chapters!
Regards, @gold84
Always glad to be able to help out.
BTW, a great place to start learning more about TA is on StockCharts. It's comprehensive, accurate and run by trustworthy pros who are really there to teach. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school
Highly recommended!
Thanks @cryptographic ! Really appreciate it.
Also, thanks for your recommendation about TA.
Regards, @gold84
Steem is going crazy never expected that to happen this early :D
Yeah, I'm a bit surprised too. Might we see all of the year's gains in the first quarter? Or the first month?
wow how cool that would be but the correction phase would be the tough one this time to survive