[SteemMonsters] What is the NPV of a Beta Pack?
We were having a discussion on the discord chat last night about the value of a pack.
Some were saying that they aren't worth buying right now with the way market prices are. Others were saying that the chance for a gold foil legend or just the fun of it outweigh the low market value cards.
But I think both are missing the key factor that packs are going to determine airdrops in the future.
@aggroed has already told us that there are going to be some additional summoners airdropped. We also know that items are coming at some point, and I imagine they will also be airdropped over the existing population.
Let's say the current market value of a 2 USD pack in terms of cards produced is 1.50. It's probably somewhere around there, though @JARVIE would have more exact numbers. Is the net present value (NPV) of those future airdrops more than 0.50?
I think so.
What I don't know is whether quest and season rewards packs will count towards those airdrops. I tend to think so, but I don't know for sure.
NPV of a pack is easy to calculate... just put the price and number of cards in existence in a xls file and you have the current NPV ...
The NPV has to include the discounted future flows from airdrops, which is an open question at this point. I think it will be greater than the difference between the 2 USD pack price and the current market value of the cards in that pack.
true.. but lets start to calculate this with the numbers we already know.. that is numbers of cards and price....
after that lets discuss a possible airdrop.. ;-)
$1.50 is the mean? All by luck though
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Yeah, it's a broad average over many packs.
I don't think the average value most get back in packs is $1.50. If we are going by fun value then they are without doubt worth the $2.
As for monetary value that all depends on a persons personal views. If we are talking todays market value of cards then No .... in no way is it worth it to buy packs. If someone wanted to look at the potential value then $2 is a steal. Its all about ones point of view IMO.
I was unaware of airdrops ....... any more info on them .... ? By the sounds of your post the airdrops you get are in relation to how many packs a persons individual account opened ?
In the past, like when gold foils were introduced, people who had bought packs previously had a certain percentage chance of receiving gold foils.
So if you had bought 1000 packs, and gold foil drop rate was 2%, you'd receive 100050.02 = roughly 100 gold foils.
I'm expecting the future airdrops to work on the same mechanic.
I don't think they're differentiating rewards packs from regular ones in any way. I suppose they could go back through the history if they really, really wanted to, but that seems unlikely.
That is my assumption as well. But they could.
Interesting disxussion thread. Thx for the alarm about the chrome dragon but as I think you figured out it wasnt me. Even after buying about 130 pcks I have no dragon cards.
And as much as I love the game there is absolutely no fucking way I'm ever gonna spend $10 (or however much they are) on one card.
Most Im prpd to go to is the odd SBD to level up an epic. Although now Im getting to L4 with some cards - I'm not gonna start spending $10- $20 a pop just to take one deck up to L5!
When I get to the max leagues I'll just have to settle for the occassional slap down by the fat cats that own such cards 'Cos that's probably never gonna be me!
Great game nonetheless!
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The intangible value of opening packs and looking what you gets is worth more than whatever gap there currently is.
Dopamine is real
Net pack value probably depends on when the pack was purchased. An appha packs netpack value qould be much higher now than what it was day zero.
Yes, I'm talking about the current betas here.
It’s all part of the game I like the ability to earn and buy packs. There are just different approaches if you plan to ply or invest. I personally have a hybrid approach so I’ll report back what my ROI ends up being.
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Looking forward to it
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