I most certainly can explain the value metrics behind the price of steem, beyond the weight of sale orders out there and the history of sales.
Applying these to steemit would suggest that there are forces which WANT the price to get lower so that they can take advantage of the price before turning the leaky vessel around.
This is a murkier business than I really want to spell out here as a result - happy to be 'off-line" about it.