I've been here on Steemit for a while now, and I've been active for a long enough period of time to see how things change and how those changes effect users -- and what that means for this platform and the people who use it.

HardFork19

The 19th hard fork was intended to level the playing field and spread the influence around.

However, based on what I've seen, it has had the opposite affect.

Channels of my size or smaller have seen increased power for voting but decreased payouts on posts per average; meanwhile the whales and bigger dolphins continue to have about the same results as before on their posts and their votes are largely unaffected because minnows are afraid to use their vote power for fear of depleting it too quickly.

This has led me to make a prediction about the future of Steemit.

Steemit for bloggers

It's clear that Steemit is an excellent place to make money as an independent blogger.

If you want to make good money writing articles and also desire the freedom to say whatever you want without a central authority censoring you, then Steemit is a great place to do that. The catch is: you must invest

To make a good regular income posting content on Steemit -- like @papa-pepper, @kevinwong, @stellabelle and others -- simply find a way to get your hands on 60,000 SP or more, either by earning it or buying STEEM, and you'll be able to make a regular income of $120/post.

When you think about it, it's not really an unfair system: if you intend to be a blogger for a living, then it would behoove you to take out a loan to buy STEEM to invest in your blogging career. Really, considering the job market out there, this isn't unfair, and I actually think we will see this sort of thing happening more and more as use-generated-token platforms continue to develop.

We will see modified crypto banks that will loan you SP and take interest off of your posts automatically via smart contracts. This is perhaps an application I will work on as I continue do learn coding.

I can see accounts that focus on curation (like @acidyo or @andrarchy) or other Whales being interested in such a lending system, as they would be able to directly support fledgling content creators who would be constantly creating content that earns good money and taking a percentage of that.

@zappl and similar apps for the rest of us

For those without money to spare and no means of gaining it in the foreseeable future, we can be happy using applications that allow us to micro-blog, stream, vine, share content, etc.

If you do not have the Steem Power that is needed to earn $100 or more per post, then it's going to be hard to justify writing up the kind of big articles or making the videos that are required to be a good blogger.

For you (me) apps like @zappl will be there to make our user experience more flexible and easy.

Because, honestly, if I am only able to make an average of $5 per post (which has been the case this week), then it's really not worth my time writing up lengthy articles (like the one you're reading) or doing extensive research (like with this post).

The user-base of Steemit is growing -- and fast. Thousands of new people are joining every day, which means that there is less in the reward pool to go around (unless you already have lots of SP). So people are going to have to change the way they look at Steemit if they don't have any money to invest in it.

Something like @zappl will not be innovative because it will allow people to make hundreds of dollars from their micro-blogs. Rather, it'll be innovative because it will allow normal users to make $5 for their micro-blogs.

I can see myself using @zappl in the same way I use Twitter, which would mean I'd post probably 10 - 15 times per day, casually from my phone while doing other things. And if I'm able to earn a few bucks from those posts, then @zappl will become my social media of choice.

The only thing that stands in the way of this prediction is if @zappl users start circle-jerking. That will kill the whole thing. @zapple must be used for actual, authentic micro-content, like memes and snarky quote-post-responses and vine-style videos and livestreaming and breaking news.

If that happens then I predict the schism of Steemit into bloggers who make money by investing in Steem Power as the top 5%, and casual users who abandon other social media for convenient apps they can use on their phone, like @zappl, consisting of the remaining 95%.

What are your thoughts?

Do you agree with my analysis and prediction?

Why, or why not?

Follow me @shayne