The two existential threats that nobody here seems keen to discuss.
I've been doing some advanced modelling, looking at the stats for the top 5000 steemians; and I've discovered two nightmare scenarios we need to act immediately to avoid.
If more than 3552 of the top 5000 hoard their megavests, the walls become too steep to climb, the power in this place becomes increasingly centralised; and the current whales become ever more entrenched in their lofty positions.
As new users arrive and discover their perpetual helplessness, they leave faster than we can attract them, and the steem blockchain is slowly abandoned.
This is the inevitable conclusion if more than 3552 decide to stockpile their megavests.
This isn't a guess, its a mathematical certainty, as is our second dire threat.
If more than 1447 of the top 5000 are powering down, the market becomes too liquid, confidence in the steem price drops below support levels triggering the sale of more steem, which generates margin calls, which dump more steem on a saturated market, locking the price into a horrific tailspin.
This is another mathematical certainty, backed by petahash charts and nonce regressions.
1447 is our absolute maximum.
Now it's not all bad news, I have some broad ideas for addressing these terrifying scenarios.
To avoid the centralisation of power, we need a way to make those megavests easily available to new steemians.
Some sort of mechanism where, with minimal work they can secure some influence over the platform, to decentralise some of the power and boost user retention.
To prevent a plummeting steem price we need some sort of signal to the marketplace that steem is a valuable commodity which should be cherished.
Some constant indication that smart people hold it in high regard and believe it has a future.
Now, I've identified these two glaring threats, and I've outlined some possible solutions; but we as a community need to act fast.
In the last 12 months, we've only been in the safe zone, (with fewer than 3552 hoarding, and fewer than 1447 powering down, simultaneously) for 6 hours on June 8th, and another 5 hours on September 22nd.
This means that Ned and Dan's dream was only viable for 11 hours in the past year, or 0.00012% of that time.
If you're not scared; you should be.
Hi Matt, I see you are busy trying to scare the whales into selling you more of their steem sub $1 with ridiculous, yet semi believable stats. Good luck to you I say, tis a free market afterall.
To keep it fair though, how about a disclaimer noting the the Steemit Universe is growing at 2% per week now, that unused Steem is being dilluted, that everytime a whale sells to a newbie the Steem is becoming more decentralise AND that you are Steem's #1 accumulator ; ) If that wallet of yours gets any heavier Matt you will need a wheelbarrow to carry it. hehe.
SirKnight.
I'm 175th for steem power now :)
It had been in bitcoin, but the forks and fighting were getting a bit much.
Here I get growth and yield, (curation rewards and leasing out voting power), there I only got growth.
Bitcoin devs are acting like bitcoin's only competing with fiat; which used to be true, but there are 500 alts chipping away at bitcoin's market share now; alts built with a decade of blockchain experience.
175 - great effort. Congrates in doing so well out of Bitcoin too.
I am crediting the recent rise in EOS to the crazy bitcoin dev behavior. Reckon investors now feel that BTC potential is limited and something more solid is needed for the future.
Won't be long before money starts pushing the STEEM price up too I reckon. You can't be growing at 1,000-2,000 new users a day and not grow.
Good time ahead.
SK.
Hmmmm okay but I'm actually not scared anymore. I changed my mind about powering down and I powered everything I had back up. Might even consider buying a bit!
The new performance changes ROCK! :P
You need to tag "satire" for the first tag, because you're just too good at this and we need forewarning! 😆
LOl I was like where is the solution where is the math what is he going on about. Scrolls to the bottom tags before he writes his comment. O well I've just been played
Maybe.
As I read this post, I thought this person was too smart to be naive; but, naive indeed he sounded, i.e. suggesting that whales give up their power so minnows could have a stake in the game.
Ha, ha, ha! Anyone who doesn't realize that the setup is designed as it is with reason is foolishly being played.
I have a saying that hasn't failed me yet in every arena of life: The man with the money and the mike rules. And, if you don't like the 'rules', create your own game.
After reading most of the comments, it seems that there are some in the community who take the numbers seriously, with reason.
This post may have a heading of 'satire'; but, I genuinely believe there are some, waving warning flags, that if a money-making incentive doesn't occur 'soon', eventually things will go the way of a few other blog sites that have bitten the dust.
The people who have found a niche, and are making a living at doing this, will be just fine, as they are money-creators.
It’s those, (ahem, self included) who do little beyond posting, using this platform primarily for investing purposes, with hopes Steem will grow power from other platforms, i.e. the new Utopian.io for developers, who may be a little discombobulated until the next new thing surfaces.
Peace.
Would this happen to be a response to a witnesses new budget proposal? @mattclarke?
I may be getting slow. I barely realized this was satire. happy steeming!
"In the last 12 months, we've only been in the safe zone, (with fewer than 3552 hoarding, and fewer than 1447 powering down, simultaneously) for 6 hours on June 8th, and another 5 hours on September 22nd."
Sounds like something I heard from George Carlin about feeling fine and dandy, he said he was never both fine and dandy sometimes he was fine and close to dandy or in the vicinity of dandy hood but never exactly fine and dandy, other times he was highly dandy however not fine, except for one time in 1979, in August, for about one hour he was both fine and dandy, but unfortunately nobody ask him if he was fine and dandy, and he could have told them truthfully I am fine and dandy, he considered it a lost opportunity.
Any friend of Carlin is a friend of mine.
😂 I like this Carlin!
Dude I just removed my vote and was in a state of severe confusion/cog diss. Haha. Just saw the “satire” tag.” and re-read. ;)
Vote reinstated!
I've moved 12 bitcoin into steem power in the last six weeks. I'm all bull :)
I hope it goes back to a dime, i was getting more steem.
If the folks with more than 50mv would stop voting and just enjoy the ride being able to faucet real money to your friends will onboard enough folks that we may have to look at charging for accounts.
We only have ~27k active users now, how will rewards look divided by ten?
That is only 250k active users, let alone 4x that, or more.
This is supposed to be a dao, they yell that, but only when they need to cya.
I say we reverse a few hard forks and build a commuñity with more than the next quick buck in mind.
You have received an upvote from STAX. Thanks for being a member of the #steemsilvergold community and opting in (if you wish to be removed please follow the link). Please continue to support each other in this great community. To learn more about the #steemsilvergold community and STAX, check this out.
Too much math and big words, I lost track before I realized it satire...lol.