A scenario matrix to make sense of how steemit may evolve

How we should respond to growth challenges such as marketplace volatility, low user retention, and uncertain investor demand for steem tokens? Opinions vary. By using a scenario matrix to look at how these variable opinions might fit together to influence steemit's evolution, it becomes easier to make sense of where this platform is likely to head.

Here's a matrix that looks at the interaction of two binary variables: competing with each other versus collaborating with each other on steemit, and entrenching in response to challenges versus changing to adapt to what circumstances these challenges produce.

As you can see, there are four ways that these variables can combine, each of which forms the basis for a plausible story about what steemit's future might look like. Each scenario has been given a name that exaggerates its distinguishing qualities.

Casino Royale considers the strategy of total gamification of the steemit platform.

In this scenario, we use every trick in the book - and invent some new tricks ourselves - to make steemit the most addictive video game on the planet. Like any good casino, steemit frequently reminds users of time and money while continually suggesting that a big payout is surely just around the corner. Because the house always wins, the platform does okay financially. Professional gamblers are able to profit from their statistical acumen by winning what are essentially zero-sum games played against less mathematically adept users, and the site's popularity with those looking to get rich quick makes steem an attractive investment for those looking to communicate with - and fleece - people who are looking to get rich quick.

CryptoCult considers the strategy of total self-segregation of steemit from the world at large.

In this scenario, the best, brightest, and wealthiest people in crypto run steemit like their own private club. Using this platform to coordinate their trading activities, they effectively manipulate the markets to keep demand for the steem token high, and leverage this success to drive adoption of both the token and the platform among the techno-elite. As steem power becomes a sought-after luxury item, the occasional big block of speculative investment money finds its way to steemit, which provides a reasonable salary for a handful of professional crypto-bloggers. Average users, meanwhile, come to rely upon the site for these bloggers' ability to uncannily predict what will happen in the alt coin markets, as well as passably cater to the specialized interests of steemit's loyal followers.

Virtual Town considers the strategy of total commitment to creating a generalized, self-sustaining information and resource exchange hub.

In this scenario, the vast majority of steemit's active users treat the platform more like a social network than an opportunity to realize huge financial gains from doing computer-based busywork. Through an extremely volatile year or two of initial growth, the norms to which users must conform in order to meaningfully participate in the platform's evolution become established and translated into everyday language. While socioeconomic stratification on steemit initially mirrors that which is prevalent in the world at large, the platform's inherent transparency creates a social obligation to act in an egalitarian manner amongst its most influential members, and helping out users of a lesser rank becomes a reliable way for the ambitious to grow their own influence. By marketing steemit to the general public as an alternative to corporate social media which respects individual sovereignty, discriminates only on the basis of behavior, and promises an honest wage for honest work, we create a resilient networked community that we can trust, and take pride in participating in.

AdBlock Required considers the strategy of total monetization of the steemit platform by traditional means.

In this scenario, site-wide ads and affiliate links are used to bring corporate revenue into steemit on an ongoing basis to keep the market price of steem tokens high. We force ourselves to watch commercials and solve capchas to accomplish any site-related task, and tell ourselves that this is for the good of the platform. Enterprising users put together detailed market research reports to sell to corporate clients looking for increasingly refined consumer profile data, and the overwhelming majority of posts that trend contain sponsored content, while average site users make less than a dollar a day in a posting + curating grindhouse. By deceptively selling steemit to the general public as an alternative to corporate social media, and working together to sell ourselves out to the highest bidder, we effectively create a stable market niche.

Each of these scenarios was put together from my limited understanding of what I've seen people putting out there about how we should continue growing steemit together. I know what future I'd prefer to see here, and hope these little stories make it easier for you to consider - and talk about - how you would like to see this platform evolve.